Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

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#21 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 8:42 pm

RL3AO wrote:Looks like a hell of a storm for Chicago.

Yeah when I was there, I got hop happy over 8inches. I bet if I went there tommorow, it would be bust.
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#22 Postby ksstormhunter » Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:42 pm

Just ran my smartmodel for Tulsa, OK and Peoria, IL. Looking for Peoria to get around 14-18 inches of snow, while Tulsa looking for a wintry mix starting with freezing rain to sleet to snow, ending in about 9 inches of snow. Going to run a couple more times to lockdown amounts. If you want a particular let me know, be happy to run it and post it. Thx.

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#23 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:47 pm

Is anyone else having issues with the NWS web pages?
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#24 Postby arizona_sooner » Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:01 pm

Good grief... I looked at the smartmodel output for Tulsa. How much sleet does that 3" of liquid precip amount to before the 9" of snow??? The NWS mentioned a "glacier" in one of their last blurbs - they may be right!
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#25 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:10 pm

I'd love to see a model run for Fort Drum, NY...I've seen any where from 12 to 24"+ possible Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night.
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#26 Postby ksstormhunter » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:27 am

I got Ft. Drum on tap for tommorrow, which should encompass tues and wed.
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#27 Postby RedWall » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:03 am

I live in Northern Indiana, I'll be watching this one. They are also calling for some lake effect snow Wed night I believe.

We had a huge dumping of snow a week or two ago---but no wind at all. It looks like the winds will be here this time.
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#28 Postby Dave » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:50 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
847 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

...STRONG WINTER STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

AT THIS TIME...NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. HOWEVER SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 10 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TERRE HAUTE...
INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...NEW CASTLE AND MUNCIE...WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AND PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH
ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH. FURTHERMORE...STRONG
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATTER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. STAY
ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
STRONG DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000-
/O.CON.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
847 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY BECOME
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

* TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY IN COMBINATION
WITH POSSIBLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&
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#29 Postby Dave » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:54 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1119 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRITICAL AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION IS
SETTING UP FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DESCENDING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA ALONG WITH A BROAD ARCTIC HIGH TO
PRODUCE WHAT MAY BE A LONG AND WIDESPREAD FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...WHICH WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON THE AXES OF
HEAVIEST ICING AND HEAVIEST SNOW. THIS LOW WILL PASS EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WHILE A LARGE AND STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PLUNGES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AS SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE HEELS OF LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES. MUNCIE AND GRISSOM WERE ALREADY
DOWN TO 22 DEGREES AT 8 PM EST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY
WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA BY MORNING
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING INVERSION COULD
ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...AND BOTH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT...ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED...BUT THIS IS REALLY THE FIRST MODEL RUN IN WHICH THE
LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...TRENDS IN RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
PULLING THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...AS IS OFTEN SEEN WITH SUCH
STRONG SYSTEMS...AND THIS COULD HAVE AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE
RESULTANT SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE AREA. WHEREAS CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH THE MAJOR ICING AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...CONTINUED NORTHWEST TRENDS COULD SHIFT
ALL THESE NORTHWEST AS WELL.

SYSTEM IS STRONGLY FORCED REALLY NO MATTER HOW ONE CHOOSES TO
QUANTIFY IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL
JET STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH AN INCREDIBLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...60 TO 80KTS AT 850 MB. STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOTED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. STRONG Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT IS ALSO NOTED...AGAIN
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN
PROFILES TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY
LOW LOWER LEVEL WETBULB TEMPS MAY SEE THINGS BRIEFLY START LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS SNOW BEFORE RAPIDLY
TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX WITH SLEET.

AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ZONE WILL PUSH EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS ALLOWING A TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS LOW PASSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH. THIS
COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO
TREES...POWER LINES...AND PERHAPS SOME STRUCTURES...EVEN AFTER THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...AND MAY COMPLICATE RECOVERY
EFFORTS AFTER THE FACT.

FOR TEMPS...STUCK VERY NEAR MODEL SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM. INTENSE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CONSENSUS AMONG SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO CONTINUE WITH
WATCHES...AS TRENDS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE WHERE HEAVY SNOW
AND SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL OCCUR...TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WILL PULL START TIME OF WATCH
BACK TO 00Z TUESDAY AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL CENTRAL INDIANA
COUNTIES TO PROVIDE SOME MARGIN FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY/...

WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT
SYSTEM EXITS LEAVING BEHIND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC
FLOW. THEN...ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD IN ALLOWING DRY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE BELOW ZERO NUMBERS FROM HPC
SURE APPEAR GOOD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAVIER
SNOW FIELD SHOULD RESIDE.

&&

===============
Checked the actual ground temperature tonight when I came in and it's at 29 F here at my house. If it continues to stay around that area any rain that falls will turn to even more ice. We're gearing for a ice storm down here in my part of Indiana first then snow later.
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#30 Postby ksstormhunter » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:41 am

Lafayette, IN was my next selected city for SmartModel run, it does look like a mess in that area. FZRA/SN mix from 02-13Z, then a break at then the main event starting around 22Z, with 38kt winds, zero vis, heavy snow. It is showing some serious hourly accumulation of 3-5 inches an hours. If anyone is near this area would love to see if this pans out. Thoughts

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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#31 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:47 am

This mornings AFD (348 am):

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL BE POSTED THIS MORNING.

ONGOING SNOWS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE
INITIAL SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THIS...THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING UPPER WAVE DIGGING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST AROUND THE DIGGING INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
PLAINS...AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MODELS ADVERTISING A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET
COUPLING RIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 65 TO 75 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...FORCING OUTSTANDING VERTICAL
MOTION ALONG A TREMENDOUS BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK.

MODEL QPF ALMOST UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MOST PART IS NOT IN QUESTION. AIR MASS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST OFF TO THE NORTH
SUPPLYING FRESH COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FOR AN ALL SNOW SETUP. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR A MIX
WITH SLEET. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE WARMER GFS.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 8 TO 16 INCH RANGE WILL BE
LIKELY...WITH THE BULLSEYE FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE BUFFALO
TO ROCHESTER TO WATERTOWN CORRIDOR.
WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIMINISHED AMOUNTS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION OF A SHARP
DRY SLOT NOSING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT CUTTING
AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY RAPID MOVING SYSTEM...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE 06Z/09Z
TO 15Z/18Z TIME FRAME AS A BEST GUESS...WHEN THE SNOWFALL COULD
BE INTENSE WITH RATES EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. THIS TIMING WOULD RESULT IN
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SYNOPTIC SNOWS ARE NOT THE NORM
FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING FOR SURE TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHICH WILL CAUSE A
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.

THE STEADY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Yay me, in the heaviest corridor. Here is our Winter Storm Watch that they finally posted this am:

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
411 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAUSING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE.

* IMPACTS...TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#32 Postby GCANE » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:42 am

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#33 Postby Dave » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:09 pm

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/NE MO AND CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 311752Z - 312145Z

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
INTO CNTRL MO. WITH THE SFC WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...A
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EWD.

A ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DRIVEN BY SWLY FLOW ATOP A COLD AIR
MASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS E-CNTRL/NE MO AND CNTRL IL THROUGH
MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF A
25-30 KT 850-MB JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO DRIVE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.

ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...INCLUDING THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND STL...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS FREEZING RAIN. IN THIS REGION...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLETELY MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES MAINTAINED AOB 0C.
FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES PER 3
HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A CONCERN IN ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...GIVEN 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WARM NOSE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
/AOB 3C/ THAN THOSE FURTHER SOUTH...PREVENTING COMPLETE MELTING OF
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THIS REGION...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ANTICIPATED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z.

..COHEN/ROGERS.. 01/31/2011


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#34 Postby GCANE » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:20 pm

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 2&source=0

To give area residents an idea of what may be in store for central Indiana in the coming days please click here.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 1&source=2


This storm has the possibilities of being worse than the historic ice storm of 2009 in Kentucky. Strong, gusty winds were not a factor during this storm.

Local residents should prepare and make plans NOW!


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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#35 Postby GCANE » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:42 pm

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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#36 Postby GCANE » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:48 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.

AT THIS TIME...NORTH AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. HOWEVER SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TERRE HAUTE...
INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...NEW CASTLE AND MUNCIE...WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AND PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH
ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR MORE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL INDIANA MAY RECEIVE LARGE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONG WINDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. LONG DURATION
POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY PEOPLE IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. STAY
ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-010245-
/O.UPG.KIND.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0001.110201T0000Z-110203T0000Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY
SNOW OR ICING...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL
WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR POTENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD...LONG DURATION POWER
OUTAGES.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.

* TIMING: PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN COMBINATION WITH HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
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baitism
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#37 Postby baitism » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:25 pm

Crap. Did the latest run of the NAM push the snow further east? Can someone please give me a good link to the NAM and GFS runs? Thanks.
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#38 Postby ksstormhunter » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:31 pm

Hey guys, go brand new data uploaded into the SmartModel, going to push out runs in 3 hours for the following cities below, if you want a city added let me know. I have enabled all the model runs that I can ingest NAM, GFS, WRF. Hoping to get some good results: Viewed on http://smartwxmodel.net

Tulsa, OK
Dallas, TX
Chicago, IL
Peoria, IL
Danville, IL
Indianapolis, IN
Joplin, MO
St. Louis, MO
Dupage, IL
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http://smartwxmodel.net

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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs

#39 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:53 pm

Winter Storm Warning now up for Fort Drum, NY and most (if not all) Buffalo NWS counties.

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
350 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH
WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 14 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.


And the longgg AFD, an interesting read.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
SAME TRACK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING PESKY LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES CONSOLIDATING INTO A WEAK SINGLE BAND AND PUSHING
INTO THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY. THIS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OF
THE NY SHORELINE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY RETREATING BACK INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS TO
IMPACT THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE SECOND...
BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE REGION.

WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DURING THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL BRIEFLY PLACE THE CWA IN
THE FAVORED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGION OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120KT QUEBEC JET...AND THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 130+KT UPPER MIDWEST JET. ALSO OF NOTE...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RATHER INTENSE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

OUTSIDE OF THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...LIFT
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE UPPER
LEVEL JET COUPLET AND PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH ROCHESTER AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...2-4 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING/LIVINGSTON/ONTARIO...AND 4-6 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...ALL OF THESE TOTALS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES FROM 06Z-20Z TUESDAY. THERE
WAS A LOT OF DISCUSSION BOTH HERE IN THE OFFICE AND WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS FIRST SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH THE
SECOND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE FEEL...SINCE THERE WILL BE A
LARGE 6-8 HOUR BREAK OF LITTLE OR NO SNOW...THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THIS IS TWO HEADLINES WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST PART AND
WARNINGS FOR THE SECOND...INSTEAD OF BLANKETING THE ENTIRE TIME
FRAME INCLUDING THE BREAK WITH A WARNING. TOUGH CALL FOR SURE ON HOW
TO HANDLE THE HEADLINES. THANKS FOR THE COORD/COLLAB FROM ALL THE
SURROUNDING OFFICES TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ODDS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE VERY HIGH. HOWEVER THE STORM IS
STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF US AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN
TRACK AND INTENSITY COULD HAVE BIG EFFECTS ON THE RESULTING SNOWFALL
FROM THE SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE
SWATH OF SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD WNY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
AS MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE THAT
CONTRIBUTES TO AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION. FOR
THAT REASON, WE ARE EVEN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSNOW IN
THE WEDNESDAY 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR REGION.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME HEAVIEST RIGHT BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WRAP A BIT OF WARM AIR
INTO ITS CORE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND WE HAVE REFLECTED THAT
POTENTIAL BY INTRODUCING A MIX OF SLEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME NEAR
THE STATE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE
TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE ABOUT 3
HOURS LATER AND SNOWFALL WILL DROP OFF A BIT AS YOU GET NORTH OF
WATERTOWN.

THE SNOWFALL WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY STRONG NE WINDS (NOT TYPICAL FOR
OUR PART OF THE WORLD) GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH CREATING NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND IN THE EAST
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE STATE LINE WHERE WE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES LESS IF THE
SLEET MIXES IN AND NORTH OF WATERTOWN WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE AS
MUCH MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH.

BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS UNDER COLD NW FLOW. SPEAKING OF COLD, TEMPERATURES ARE
GOING TO REMAIN QUITE RAW...LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS.
COMBINE THAT WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH FRESH
SNOWPACK WE WILL GET QUITE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR ZERO
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ANY WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT
WIND CHILL.
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#40 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:55 pm

Basically with the damage potential it is like a hurricane running down I-70...
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