Well, it looks like there is a big snowstorm set up to impact the midwest and northeast from Monday through Thursday (Jan 31 - Feb 3). The model that Foxnews was showing earlier showed a huge swath of 24"+. Even NWS Buffalo is excited about this storm, after many "nickel and dime" snows (small snows, 1 to 3 inches or less generally), saying we could see widespread 6"+ across the area.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW TUES AND WED...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS ON THE QUIET SIDE AS SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
WINDS DOWN SUN NT AND MON AS A STRONG EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...RESULTING IN VEERING
WINDS FROM NW SUN EVE TO NE MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREV
THOUGHTS FOR CHC POPS SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO...GRADUALLY PUSHING WEST
TOWARD NIAG FRONTIER MON MORNING WITH NE FLOW...BUT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMS. COULD SEE A BIT OF SUN ON MONDAY AS WELL.
THEN...AFTER TWO MONTHS OF NOTHING BUT NEAR CONSTANT NICKEL AND DIME
LAKE SNOWS...WE HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE START THE NEW
MONTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TWO THREATS FOR APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL. THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN ONE FOR WED...BUT WE ALSO HAVE A
MORE SUBTLE THREAT FOR TUES MORNING NOW AS WELL.
BAROCLINICITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS 850 MB TEMP ISOTHERMS TIGHTEN UP MON
NT INTO WED...AND A STRONG JET WILL STREAK ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY...
PLACING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
LATE MON NT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUES. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH
WITH A GOOD 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF MAX IT OUT ALONG NY-PA BORDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL INCREASE
POPS DRASTICALLY FROM 10 TO 60 FROM ABOUT 10Z-18Z TUES AND WE
COULD SEE A SOLID 1-3/2-4 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...LESSER CHC AND
LOWER AMTS E OF LK ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE RACES OFF TO NEW ENG TUES
AFTERNOON AND WE GET INTO A LULL LATER TUES AND MUCH OF TUES NT
BEFORE THE REAL ACTION BEGINS...
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY
THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS
PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN
OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC
HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY
QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK
MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WED
MORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN
SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT.
THIS IS STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE AS 12Z GEM KEEP BULK OF SNOW SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MAX PRECIP NEAR NY-PA BORDER (AN INCH) BUT A
SOLID 0.5 TO SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WARMER MODEL...BUT EVEN THIS IS A BIT COLDER THAN LAST RUN...WITH
850 MB ZERO ISOTHERM JUST TOUCHING OUR SRN TIER FOR AWHILE WED SO A
LITTLE SLEET COULDNT BE RULED OUT.
ALL OF THIS IS STILL A GOOD 84-96 HOURS OUT...SO CERTAINLY CANNOT
GET TOO SPECIFIC. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR LATE TUES
NT AND WED AND THERE IS AT LEAST AN EVEN CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW AREAWIDE FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER SEASON.
Comments, model images, forecasts...ready, GO!
Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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brunota2003
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brunota2003
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
I just ran my little model that I have on my comp (it is set up for Fort Drum, NY and uses GFS data). The most snow accumulations I've seen on it in the past is 2 or 3 inches, well, that just got a whole lot bigger...forecast for this storm system:
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 9. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.
Wednesday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely. High 21. Wind northeast around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches.
Wednesday night: Cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 7. Wind north around 18 mph in the evening, becoming 15 mph, gusting to 21 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch.
The snow depth goes from 8.2 inches on Feb. 1, to 22.6 inches on Feb 3! The only reason it isn't forecasting more than 12 to 16 inches? Because part of the time, it switches from heavy snow to heavy sleet.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 9. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.
Wednesday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely. High 21. Wind northeast around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches.
Wednesday night: Cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 7. Wind north around 18 mph in the evening, becoming 15 mph, gusting to 21 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch.
The snow depth goes from 8.2 inches on Feb. 1, to 22.6 inches on Feb 3! The only reason it isn't forecasting more than 12 to 16 inches? Because part of the time, it switches from heavy snow to heavy sleet.
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brunota2003
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That map has us in the 15 to 21 inch range (it looks like we are in the 15 to 18 inch color, but the 18 to 21 inch is just about over us...can't quite tell at that distance).
Can't wait for it to get closer, so the graphical forecasts will show both qpf and new snow. Will get a better estimate (on both timing and totals) then. Looks like, right now, the worse will be from about 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday for us.
Can't wait for it to get closer, so the graphical forecasts will show both qpf and new snow. Will get a better estimate (on both timing and totals) then. Looks like, right now, the worse will be from about 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday for us.
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Metalicwx220
Re:
brunota2003 wrote:That map has us in the 15 to 21 inch range (it looks like we are in the 15 to 18 inch color, but the 18 to 21 inch is just about over us...can't quite tell at that distance).
Can't wait for it to get closer, so the graphical forecasts will show both qpf and new snow. Will get a better estimate (on both timing and totals) then. Looks like, right now, the worse will be from about 12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday for us.
Look how different the map is today. Accuweather says .7 inches of ice on the way for cincinnati Ohio
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
347 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT FOR LATER IN
THE PD AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE PLAINS TO NORTHEAST. SRN
STREAM SHRTWV WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON TUES AND
ASSUME A NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT THRU THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE
NRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT BASIN. THIS WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE TO SRN NEW
ENG BY MIDDAY WED. A STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN
GOMEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY WILL CARRY A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM AND THROW THE MSTR BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TO SRN NEW ENG. STRONG
DEFORMATION AND AN UPR JET COUPLET COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER FGEN
FORCING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WHILE ENERGETIC SWLY-WLY FLOW
CARRIES MSTR THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATLC...
WITH AN AXIS OF OVERRUNNING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF VERY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SRN NEW ENG... AND
VERY HVY SNOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID LS VLY ACROSS TO NEW ENG.
00Z MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCOPE OF THIS
EVENT INDICATING UP TO AN INCH OF FZRA CENTERED FROM SE IA TO
W-CNTRL OH... AND WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW NORTH OF THIS AXIS.
MANUAL GRAPHICS EMPLOYED AN INCLUSIVE BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO
CAPTURE HIGHER OP MODEL OUTPUT ALTHO THE OFFICIALLY PREFERRED 00Z
GEFS... WHICH WAS SEEN AFTER THE GRAPHICS WERE CREATED...
SUPPORTED THIS HEAVIER APPROACH. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT... BUT IMPORTANT PLACEMENT ISSUES
REMAIN... SO THIS ONE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
MAJOR IMPACTS.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
347 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT FOR LATER IN
THE PD AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE PLAINS TO NORTHEAST. SRN
STREAM SHRTWV WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON TUES AND
ASSUME A NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT THRU THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE
NRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT BASIN. THIS WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE TO SRN NEW
ENG BY MIDDAY WED. A STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN
GOMEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY WILL CARRY A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM AND THROW THE MSTR BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TO SRN NEW ENG. STRONG
DEFORMATION AND AN UPR JET COUPLET COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER FGEN
FORCING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WHILE ENERGETIC SWLY-WLY FLOW
CARRIES MSTR THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATLC...
WITH AN AXIS OF OVERRUNNING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF VERY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SRN NEW ENG... AND
VERY HVY SNOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID LS VLY ACROSS TO NEW ENG.
00Z MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCOPE OF THIS
EVENT INDICATING UP TO AN INCH OF FZRA CENTERED FROM SE IA TO
W-CNTRL OH... AND WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW NORTH OF THIS AXIS.
MANUAL GRAPHICS EMPLOYED AN INCLUSIVE BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO
CAPTURE HIGHER OP MODEL OUTPUT ALTHO THE OFFICIALLY PREFERRED 00Z
GEFS... WHICH WAS SEEN AFTER THE GRAPHICS WERE CREATED...
SUPPORTED THIS HEAVIER APPROACH. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT... BUT IMPORTANT PLACEMENT ISSUES
REMAIN... SO THIS ONE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
MAJOR IMPACTS.
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brunota2003
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
Yes...definitely big changes with this past model run...it is still a good ways out though, and thing could swing either way though. For now, here is what I got when I ran the "model" this morning:
It dropped from 12 to 16 inches on Wednesday to 6 to 10 inches. For now, I'm going to call for about 12 to 14 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
The latest from the NWS (330 am update):
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE RATHER QUITE PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS IT IS LOOKING INCREASING LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
EVEN BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THE LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING OUT
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL
QPF FAIRLY CLOSE AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SPINNING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIG AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE CONUS...BUT NEARLY ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY STEER THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DOME OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CURRENT TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BRING THE AXIS OF THE MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ALONG THE STREGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BULLSEYE MAY EVEN BE
IN THE BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
3 DAYS OUT...CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
RATHER HIGH DUE TO STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR
A WATCH...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVILY WORDED HWO.
Tuesday night: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 14. Wind northeast around 8 mph in the evening, becoming 11 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.
Wednesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 16, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind northeast around 17 mph, gusting to 24 mph, in the morning, becoming 21 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches.
Wednesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 8. Wind northeast around 20 mph in the evening, becoming 14 mph , gusting to 21 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch.
It dropped from 12 to 16 inches on Wednesday to 6 to 10 inches. For now, I'm going to call for about 12 to 14 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
The latest from the NWS (330 am update):
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE RATHER QUITE PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS IT IS LOOKING INCREASING LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
EVEN BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THE LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING OUT
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL
QPF FAIRLY CLOSE AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATION.
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SPINNING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIG AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE CONUS...BUT NEARLY ALL THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY STEER THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DOME OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CURRENT TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BRING THE AXIS OF THE MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ALONG THE STREGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE BULLSEYE MAY EVEN BE
IN THE BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL
3 DAYS OUT...CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
RATHER HIGH DUE TO STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL A BIT FAR OUT FOR
A WATCH...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVILY WORDED HWO.
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
This is going to be historic
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL USE
A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...BUT THEN FOCUS WILL CHANGE TO THE MAJOR STORM
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE BROAD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE COLD
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GENERALLY A DRY COLUMN
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS AGAIN
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGHS COOLER
THAN THE MAVMOS AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WILL THEN BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA STARTING ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A PRECURSOR TO THE MAJOR
WAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 4 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SATURATED AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA REVEALS A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN TYPE
SOUNDING. THUS WILL RAISE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT LEAN
WARMER THAN MAVMOS ON LOWS GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT AND MORE POWERFUL PART OF THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO LAST INTO
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LAF...KOKOMO...WILL MAINLY BE SEE
SNOW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THEIR PROFILES TO REMAIN BELOW
ZERO. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...IND...HUF...MIE...BMG...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING. MANY
FORCING MECHANISMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST...UPPER JET SHOWS
COUPLING. 300MB HEIGHTS SHOW RIGHT REAR REGION ACROSS WISCONSIN
AND AN APPROACHING LEFT ENTRANCE ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONG LIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS...POISED TO PUSH THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA. SECOND...VERY STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION SEEN AT
500MB AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIRD...
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ALSO SHOWS STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION
DOWN TO NEARLY 450-500MB DEPENDING UPON YOUR MODEL CHOICE.
THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG FORCING. THIRD...VERY STRONG Q VECTOR
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS INDIANA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOURTH...THE 700MB CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE PATH OF A 700 MB
CLOSED LOW. FIFTH...THE GFS 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS VERY
STRONG UPGLIDE ESTABLISHING ITSELF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE ALONG THIS SURFACE AS MIXING RATIOS REACH 5 TO 6 G/KG.
SIXTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH
STRONG LIFT. SEVENTH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
INDIANA FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THIS IS A
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY
STRONG...LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT 70-80
KNTS ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA. THIS KIND OF WARM AND
MOIST TRANSPORT CERTAINLY WILL OVERRUN COLDER AIR...EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 20S...AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THIS...NAM POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SURFACE AT 650MB ALSO SUGGEST TROWAL DEVELOPMENT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...BUFKIT SHOWS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THAT
ICE WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.
I REST MY CASE.
GIVEN THIS WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...STARTING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. GIVEN WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT ON THIS
SYSTEM...PRECISE TRACKING OF THE STORM IS NOT YET
AVAILABLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG SYSTEM WILL
BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW AND OTHERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
OR ICE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND ICE
STORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITION...HEAVY SNOW AND EVEN DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A QUICK THAW IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL USE
A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...BUT THEN FOCUS WILL CHANGE TO THE MAJOR STORM
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE BROAD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE COLD
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GENERALLY A DRY COLUMN
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS AGAIN
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGHS COOLER
THAN THE MAVMOS AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAVMOS.
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WILL THEN BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA STARTING ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A PRECURSOR TO THE MAJOR
WAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 4 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SATURATED AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA REVEALS A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN TYPE
SOUNDING. THUS WILL RAISE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT LEAN
WARMER THAN MAVMOS ON LOWS GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT AND MORE POWERFUL PART OF THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO LAST INTO
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LAF...KOKOMO...WILL MAINLY BE SEE
SNOW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THEIR PROFILES TO REMAIN BELOW
ZERO. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...IND...HUF...MIE...BMG...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING. MANY
FORCING MECHANISMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST...UPPER JET SHOWS
COUPLING. 300MB HEIGHTS SHOW RIGHT REAR REGION ACROSS WISCONSIN
AND AN APPROACHING LEFT ENTRANCE ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRONG LIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS...POISED TO PUSH THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA. SECOND...VERY STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION SEEN AT
500MB AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIRD...
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ALSO SHOWS STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION
DOWN TO NEARLY 450-500MB DEPENDING UPON YOUR MODEL CHOICE.
THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG FORCING. THIRD...VERY STRONG Q VECTOR
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS INDIANA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOURTH...THE 700MB CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE PATH OF A 700 MB
CLOSED LOW. FIFTH...THE GFS 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS VERY
STRONG UPGLIDE ESTABLISHING ITSELF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE ALONG THIS SURFACE AS MIXING RATIOS REACH 5 TO 6 G/KG.
SIXTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH
STRONG LIFT. SEVENTH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
INDIANA FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THIS IS A
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY
STRONG...LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT 70-80
KNTS ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA. THIS KIND OF WARM AND
MOIST TRANSPORT CERTAINLY WILL OVERRUN COLDER AIR...EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 20S...AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THIS...NAM POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SURFACE AT 650MB ALSO SUGGEST TROWAL DEVELOPMENT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...BUFKIT SHOWS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THAT
ICE WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.
I REST MY CASE.
GIVEN THIS WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...STARTING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. GIVEN WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT ON THIS
SYSTEM...PRECISE TRACKING OF THE STORM IS NOT YET
AVAILABLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG SYSTEM WILL
BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW AND OTHERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN
OR ICE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND ICE
STORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITION...HEAVY SNOW AND EVEN DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A QUICK THAW IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
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Metalicwx220
Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
GCANE wrote:This is going to be historic
How?
Last edited by srainhoutx on Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited To Remove Graphics And Long Text
Reason: Edited To Remove Graphics And Long Text
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
Well, the 12Z GFS is now out, and I ran my "model" with it...back to 12 to 16 inches of snow Wednesday, with 2 to 4 inches Tuesday Night. I'm still going with 12 to 14 inches for now.
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Metalicwx220
BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
* TIMING...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SNOWFALL FROM THE STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO WIND DOWN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF THE LAKE. INCREASINGLY HEAVY AND MORE CONCENTRATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 24 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SETS UP AND HOW PERSISTENT IT IS OVER ANY ONE LOCATION.
* HAZARDS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND FREQUENT WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.
* IMPACTS...NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOW WILL BE ACCUMULATING AT A RAPID RATE DURING THE PEAK OF THE SNOW STORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SNARL TRAVEL THERE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.
&&
Seriously....I have never seen this when I lived up there. I had two blizzard waring for the same week back in 08-09 but they were both bust.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
* TIMING...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SNOWFALL FROM THE STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO WIND DOWN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF THE LAKE. INCREASINGLY HEAVY AND MORE CONCENTRATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.
* ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND IN EXCESS OF 18 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST INDIANA. LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 24 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SETS UP AND HOW PERSISTENT IT IS OVER ANY ONE LOCATION.
* HAZARDS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND FREQUENT WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.
* IMPACTS...NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOW WILL BE ACCUMULATING AT A RAPID RATE DURING THE PEAK OF THE SNOW STORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SNARL TRAVEL THERE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.
&&
Seriously....I have never seen this when I lived up there. I had two blizzard waring for the same week back in 08-09 but they were both bust.
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
Latest from Buffalo (321 pm):
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT...EVEN
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...A TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET SURGING AHEAD
OF THE MAIN STORM...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HEADS TO
THE EAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD COULD RANGE FROM 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORM CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REACH THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A CLASSIC COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WHILE A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ADVECTS
DEEP MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE.
THE STEADIEST SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LAYER OF
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL SURGE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY
RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TIER IF A CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TAKES PLACE QUICKLY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE
COLDER AIR...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN PA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE A GOOD PART OF OUR CWA IN THE
FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER/UPPER GENESEE VALLEY FOR A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED PCPN OVER TO SNOW.
AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
COULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH IF THE LATEST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
QPF FORECASTS COME TO FRUITION.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND ICING...BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE STEADY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL/ICING EVENT
IS RATHER HIGH DUE TO STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS...IT IS STILL A BIT FAR
OUT FOR A WATCH...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVILY WORDED HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT...EVEN
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...A TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET SURGING AHEAD
OF THE MAIN STORM...WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HEADS TO
THE EAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD COULD RANGE FROM 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORM CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REACH THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A CLASSIC COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL GENERATE
ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WHILE A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ADVECTS
DEEP MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE.
THE STEADIEST SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LAYER OF
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL SURGE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY
RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TIER IF A CHANGEOVER TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TAKES PLACE QUICKLY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE
COLDER AIR...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN PA
IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE A GOOD PART OF OUR CWA IN THE
FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER/UPPER GENESEE VALLEY FOR A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED PCPN OVER TO SNOW.
AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
COULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH IF THE LATEST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
QPF FORECASTS COME TO FRUITION.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND ICING...BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE STEADY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL/ICING EVENT
IS RATHER HIGH DUE TO STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS...IT IS STILL A BIT FAR
OUT FOR A WATCH...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVILY WORDED HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --
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GoneBabyGone
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 101
- Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:28 pm
Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
What's it looking like for Boston (Cambridge)?
These weekly snowstorms are getting a bit old...fascinating, but old.
These weekly snowstorms are getting a bit old...fascinating, but old.
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
NECN Just called this storm a 1-2 footer for central MA. Really, we have had enough!
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GoneBabyGone
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 101
- Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:28 pm
Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
bzukajo wrote:NECN Just called this storm a 1-2 footer for central MA. Really, we have had enough!
What'd they say about Boston?
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
Metalicwx220 wrote:GCANE wrote:This is going to be historic
How?
Snow to 20+" over a wide spread area. South of the snow, widespread severe icing. South of that, severe weather.
After that, record breaking low temps. Forecast is showing Toronto at -30F.
Severity and area affected would beat the two '78 blizzards.
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Re: Big Midwest/Eastern Snow Mon - Thurs
I'm in West Central Indiana (although my profile might say I'm in Texas... That has changed), and we're looking at over an inch of ice, then about 4 inches of snow/blowing snow on top of that. I don't envy Chicago though--currently looks like 2ft of snow for them... I can't even imagine.
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