Series of Storms to affect the West with more Snow/rain/win

[Metalicwx220]

There discussion are getting fun to read.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PST MON FEB 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE AND CLEAR DAY OVER THE
WEST SIDE AS THE UPPER LOW HAS CLEARED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD.
EAST OF THE CASCADES SKIES REMAIN BROKEN OR OVERCAST IN MANY AREAS
IN MID LEVEL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE REGION. THIS AREA PUSHES EAST
TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH AND WEST
FROM CANADA TO THE BC COAST AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON. THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY IN
THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST DAY...WITH LATEST RUNS
TRENDING TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL.

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES INTO THE ADJACENT CASCADES. BUT PRECIP RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE RATHER LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO HOVER ROUGHLY
AROUND A THOUSAND FEET DURING THE PERIOD...SO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
A BIT OF A CONCERN TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN AREAS LIKE CAMAS
MOUNTAIN AND THE HIGHER I-5 PASSES FROM SEXTON NORTHWARD. WE JUST
DON`T THINK THE RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE TOO MUCH TROUBLE
AT THIS POINT.

THE REAL CONCERN COMES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
WHEN THE COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA SENDING IN MOIST MARINE AIR. THE
NAM AND GFS FORECAST 850 TEMPS TO FALL TO -8 TO -9 OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON BY THURSDAY EVENING. WET-BULB ZERO FORECASTS AND VARIOUS
THICKNESS CHARTS LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE TO FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO BETWEEN SEA LEVEL AND 500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS BY THE MODELS DIFFER A BIT AND WE`RE TAKING
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM
DOESN`T LOOK TOO BAD EITHER BUT A LITTLE DRY IN AREAS. RESULTANT
QPF FORECAST COMES TO .25 AND .50" MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...WITH UPWARDS OF .75" IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF MEDFORD. SNOW TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GENERALLY IN
THE 2-4 INCH RANGE IN THE VALLEYS BELOW 2000 FEET...WITH 4-8" AND
UP TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS OF JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY SHOULD GET SOCKED HARDER HOWEVER. THESE ARE
INITIAL ESTIMATES...SO TREAD LIGHTLY.

FOR THE EAST SIDE WE EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BE GUSTY FOR A TIME
EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SNOWS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE`RE THINKING THIS EVENT MAY BE MORE OF AN ADVISORY
TYPE THERE.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW THURSDAY AND WILL GET
COLDER INTO FRIDAY. WE`VE GONE TOWARD THE COLDER OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY MINS...BUT NONETHELESS WE`LL NEED CLEARING
AND SNOW COVER TO DIP TO VALUES WORTH SHOUTING ABOUT - AND THAT
COULD HAPPEN - BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY NOT BY FRIDAY MORNING. STAVISH

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
FRIDAY. A COLD MOIST UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH TO OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD. ON MONDAY ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT.

[Metalicwx220]

Another good discussion
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 PM PST MON FEB 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEY AND THE COAST WILL REMAIN RAIN
SHOWERS.A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND COLDER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING SNOW THAT COULD REACH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON...WILL SPREAD
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON LATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE LEVEL WINDS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WNW 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30
TO 40 KT. SNOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT WILL FALL TO
AROUND 1000 FT THROUGH TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND QPF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT
RIDGE LEVEL SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR TO THE CASCADES...FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HOWEVER WILL
BE MORE RAIN SHADOWED BY THE COAST RANGE AND WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MIX RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AND NO FROZEN TYPE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC FROM BOTH A QPF AND COLD AIR STAND POINT. SNOW LEVELS IN
THE NORTH WILL DROP TO NEAR SEA LEVEL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
COLD AIR SPREADING SOUTH AND INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO A BETTER OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND A CLOSED SURFACE LOW OFF OF
THE WASHINGTON COAST MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE SUPPORTED BY
DEEP COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDING FROM SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. WHILE 850 MB WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT THEN BOTH SURFACE AND 850 MB FLOW
TURNS EASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING...THUS THE COAST AND VALLEY ALSO
LOOK AT RISK TO PICKING UP SNOW IN ADDITION TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND COLD EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
RUTHFORD

.LONG TERM...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND WILL
IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
DEPICTED IN THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENT MODEL RUNS...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LINGER JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DIGGING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR SO HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY AGREED ON THE
SYSTEM DEPARTING FROM THE REGION BY SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BRIEFLY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM CANADA ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE BROUGHT SHOWERY WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...AT THIS POINT SNOW DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY FOR THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS AS MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN.

[fogbreath]

Fun stuff - I actually saw more snow over the hills of the San Francisco South Bay flying in yesterday morning than I did in all of Ohio during my four-day visit there.

More fun stuff - one local radio met actually started his forecast this morning by stating (and I'm paraphrasing a bit) "On January 21, 1962, two inches of snow fell on San Francisco. I can't completely rule out the possibility of snow falling in the city again Friday going to Saturday."

I found this fun pic from that last snowfall in SF - this is of the airport (which is really located 10 miles south of the city, but it is pretty much sea level)

[Metalicwx220]

Not gonna snow in Phoenix!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Metalicwx220]

Im late Winter storm Warning for Seattle
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE SEATTLE TACOMA METRO AREA...THE KITSAP PENINSULA...THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY...THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SEATTLE TACOMA METRO AREA...THE KITSAP PENINSULA...THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY...THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...SEATTLE...TACOMA...OLYMPIA... CHEHALIS...SHELTON...HOQUIAM...AND FORKS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

* TIMING...WHILE BRIEF SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...THE MAIN PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW MAY CONTINUE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNINGS MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS...WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

[Ntxw]

Not gonna snow in Phoenix!!!!!!!!!!!!

It might =o! Euro says >540 thickness and very low heights for a brief time. Vegas too! Surface temps 34-36 ish.

[Metalicwx220]

Accuweather expects 5.4 inches in Seattle.

[Metalicwx220]

Seattle will smash a record of 22 set in 1960 thursday with a forecasted low of 14!!!!

[Metalicwx220]

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN HEAVIER SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATION/SNOW LEVELS...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER HILLS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE VALLEY MEETS THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

* IMPACTS...ROADWAYS MAY BECOME ICY AND SNOW COVERED... RESULTING IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS. THIS MAY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE COMMUTE THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[Metalicwx220]

Not gonna snow in Phoenix!!!!!!!!!!!!

It might =o! Euro says >540 thickness and very low heights for a brief time. Vegas too! Surface temps 34-36 ish.

Don't know the last time it did snow lol. It is only 108 hours out to!

[Metalicwx220]

Fun stuff - I actually saw more snow over the hills of the San Francisco South Bay flying in yesterday morning than I did in all of Ohio during my four-day visit there.

More fun stuff - one local radio met actually started his forecast this morning by stating (and I'm paraphrasing a bit) "On January 21, 1962, two inches of snow fell on San Francisco. I can't completely rule out the possibility of snow falling in the city again Friday going to Saturday."

I found this fun pic from that last snowfall in SF - this is of the airport (which is really located 10 miles south of the city, but it is pretty much sea level)

ITS POSSIble with the current pattern. We need a pattern in the deep south like this. lol

[Ntxw]

Don't know the last time it did snow lol. It is only 108 hours out to!

It's not too unusual. Every few years it snows in those areas down to the desert valleys. Usually doesn't stick though.

[Metalicwx220]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 312 PM PST TUE FEB 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GIVE SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE LOWLANDS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM THE NORTH MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A RATHER GOOD LATE SEASON ARCTIC BLAST HERE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WESTERN WASHINGTON COLD OUTBREAKS...THE MAIN QUESTION MARK CONCERN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLANDS. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTH INTERIOR DOWN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN ISSUE IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY -THOUGH THERE WILL BE SNOW THERE- AND SNOW EITHER MEETING CRITERIA OR HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE AREA...WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG VORTICITY MAX IN THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND MAKING GOOD SE PROGRESS. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE REAL INTERESTING CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE W 09Z-15Z WED MORNING. AIR ALOFT IS COLD...SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE NATURE OF THE FIRST SHOT WED MORNING WILL BE SLUSHY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS BAND SPREADS NE INTO THE SEATTLE METRO DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IN THE MEAN TIME NLY PRES GRADIENTS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER B.C. AS A 1058 MB HIGH FORMS OVER THE YUKON THEN DROPS RAPIDLY SE INTO CENTRAL B.C. BY LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED NIGHT EXPECT BELLINGHAM TO WILLIAMS LAKE PRES GRADIENTS TO INCREASE TO -18 TO -22 MB...AND POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WILL LIKELY GIVE STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND TO WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AND THE SAN JUANS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE FAR NORTH INTERIOR WILL BE FOR A COMBINATION OF SOME SNOW...BUT LOTS OF WIND. 12Z MODELS WERE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL PUGET SOUND DURING THE DAY WED. THE 18Z RUNS INDICATE 2-6 INCH TOTALS FROM ABOUT ISLAND COUNTY SOUTH TO TACOMA...WHERE CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE ARCTIC FRONT RAPIDLY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THIS CONVERGENCE BAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE MAY BE QUITE INTERESTING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FLASH FREEZE SIMILAR TO THE NOVEMBER 2010 EVENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE ARCTIC FRONT DRIVES INTO SW WA DURING THE EVENING. THE 18Z MODELS AND THE 12Z ECMWF THEN TAKE A LEE SIDE LOW SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WA COAST TO AROUND KHQM AND PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THIS KEEPS THE THREAT OF SNOW GOING FOR MOST OF WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING OR SO. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WED NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING THU. VERY COLD THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FRI WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. ALBRECHT .LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MODERATION. PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN SAT NIGHT PER NEWEST LONG TERM GUIDANCE AND IT MAY START AS SNOW BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE. WILL LEAVE THE DETAILS FOR LATER. SUNDAY AND BEYOND MODELS SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PREV RUNS. MODELS NOW DIG A NEW TROUGH FAR OFFSHORE AND GET US INTO A MILD AND RAINY PATTERN. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP LOW SNOW LEVELS AROUND 1000 FEET FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES.

[Metalicwx220]

Don't know the last time it did snow lol. It is only 108 hours out to!

It's not too unusual. Every few years it snows in those areas down to the desert valleys. Usually doesn't stick though.

They see snow... but it doesn't.It is probably a warm snow,,,, so would they freak out over a dusting or two inches of snow. I would lol.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of San Franciso, I wanted to post this since you almost never see this. What a crazy winter (stretch of winters if you count last year). Appears no place is left untouched!



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 PM PST TUE FEB 22 2011

CAZ006-505>513-516>518-528>530-231200-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
338 PM PST TUE FEB 22 2011

...COLD STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING ON THURSDAY...

...SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO DROP CLOSE TO SEA LEVEL BY FRIDAY NIGHT...

AFTER A QUIET WEATHER DAY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RETURN TO COLD
WINTRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO AND
MONTEREY BAY REGION BY THURSDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN CANADA WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BE NEAR THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...RAINFALL WILL SPREAD
ACROSS OUR AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED HALF AN INCH FOR CITIES WITH MORE
THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY AND BE UNDER 1500 FEET FOR MOST OF SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AND BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET ON FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN TO SEA LEVEL.

ALTHOUGH THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AND
VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT AT THIS TIME
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT VERY LOW ELEVATIONS. EVEN IF THE SNOW DOES NOT ACCUMULATE
AT SEA LEVEL...IT WILL LIKELY IMPACT LOCAL PASSES AND ANY ROADS
ABOVE THE 1000 FOOT LEVEL.

PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AROUND SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY
BAY LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS. REMEMBER TO ALWAYS CARRY AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR
IN CASE YOU DO ENCOUNTER HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

[fogbreath]

That forecast is wild, but I guess it's reflected in the local press - as the day has gone on, there's been more and more talk about it, with pretty much all the local mets mentioning the white stuff in the region.

It would've been fun (well, not really) if this was a Thursday into Friday event. I can imagine commuters' collective jaws dropping if it was falling at a steady clip at places like the Altamont Pass (barely 1000 ft elev.) or just emerging through the Caldecott Tunnel bores (about 1400 ft elev.) westbound to the Oakland side.

[Metalicwx220]

LOL weather underground has snow in San Francisco forecast.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and snow showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Saturday
Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and snow showers. Highs in the lower 40s

[Metalicwx220]

An article by San Francisco chronicle.
Snow at sea level? It could happen this weekend

Those blue skies kissing the Bay Area with a chilly semblance of warmth Tuesday were just teasing, it turns out, because the cold - and we do mean cold - hard truth is that snow appears to be on its way to San Francisco.

On Saturday morning, forecasters say, city folks could wake up to find their find their streets carpeted an inch deep in wet alabaster for the first time in 35 years. And it's expected to be even thicker elsewhere around the Bay Area, especially in the hills.

There have been snowflakes on Twin Peaks as recently as 2009, and flurries peppered even lower spots in San Francisco in 1988, '89 and '98.

But the gold standard of true snowfall is to have it hit sea level - and to stick long enough to make a snowman. That hasn't happened since Feb. 5, 1976.

'A real possibility'
"It's not a lead-pipe cinch, but having snow all the way down to the lowest level in San Francisco is a real possibility," private meteorologist Mike Pechner said Tuesday. "Seeing it on Twin Peaks Boulevard, Portola, Forest Hills? Sure. But in places like the Financial District - we just might see that."

National Weather Service forecasters say the chances for snow are riding with an Alaskan storm now rampaging south. Today should be about the same as Tuesday, when rainless blue skies allowed a tolerable 56 degrees to sneak into San Francisco, but by Thursday things will turn nasty.

How it could happen
If the storm hits California with its expected frosty ferocity by then, daytime highs will drop to the 40s and showers will start. By late Friday night, after a couple of days of frigid sogginess, the stage should be set for a traditional winter wonderland.

If the thermometer in San Francisco dips into the mid- to upper 30s as expected after dark, rain continues to fall and the earth stays chilled so it won't melt everything hitting it, there should be snow everywhere from the Financial District to the Sunset, forecasters say.

As for higher Bay Area spots such as Mount Diablo, Mount Hamilton and Mount Tamalpais, which sported snow blankets last weekend - count on a repeat show of the same, forecasters said. Mount Diablo alone had 8 inches of snow Friday.

"What we're saying is that snow levels will be lower than they were this last weekend, and that was pretty low," said weather service forecaster Bob Benjamin. "We had snow down to 1,500 feet late Friday and Saturday. This next air mass has the properties to be even colder, which will drive the snow levels down to 1,000 feet or lower."

[Metalicwx220]

Here i another LOL

San Francisco Expects First Snow in 35 Years
An inch could be on the ground this weekend By John Johnson, Newser Staff

Posted Feb 23, 2011 2:55 PM CST
Bookmark & Share Digg Fark LinkedIn StumbleUpon Delicious Google Buzz Reddit Yahoo Buzz (Newser) – Midwesterners will be very sympathetic: San Francisco might get its first snow in 35 years this weekend—a whole inch, give or take. The city's had flurries now and then over the years, but it hasn't had what the San Francisco Chronicle refers to as the "gold standard" of snowfall since February 1976—"to have it hit at sea level and stick around long enough to make a snowman."

Thanks to a storm pushing down from Alaska, the snowmen may return Saturday. "It's not a lead-pipe cinch, but having snow all the way down to the lowest level in San Francisco is a real possibility," says one meteorologist. "Seeing it on Twin Peaks Boulevard, Portola, Forest Hills? Sure. But in places like the Financial District—we just might see that."

[Metalicwx220]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PST WED FEB 23 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR THE NORTH BAY HILLS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PST WEDNESDAY...QUIET WEATHER WITH
A NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES UNDER YESTERDAY`S
VALUE AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED 3-5C. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

BIG STORY REMAINS UPCOMING STORM. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE
ARRIVAL AND NOW BRINGS THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE
NAPA/SONOMA AREA AS EARLY AS NOON ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING THE SF BAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH
THIS HAS SOME GOOD DYNAMICS AND A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT SO COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AND A
CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
WITH THE FRONT AND COULD GUST TO OVER 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SNOW LEVELS TO APPROACH THE 1000
FOOT MARK OVER THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH MORE THAN 6"
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 2500 FOOT MARK. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 1000 FEET. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS.

FOR SF BAY AND SOUTHWARD...THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAST SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL STILL AROUND. GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT LEVELS SHOULD START BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET
THURSDAY AND DROP CLOSE TO 1000 FEET BY FRIDAY. WHERE THERE IS LESS
AGREEMENT IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND WHEN THE LEVELS
HIT LOW VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL
HAPPEN BEFORE LEVELS ARE ABLE TO DROP. FOR NOW HAVE A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM SF BAY SOUTHWARD. BEHIND
THE FRONT THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING ON FRIDAY AS VERY COLD AIR
FILTERS IN HELPING TO KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS. ANY OF THESE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO SEA LEVEL BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON ROADS AT SEA LEVEL.

BY LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EVEN COLDER AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE HOW MUCH
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND IF WINDS WILL SHUT
OFF. SOME GUIDANCES DROP PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS INTO LOWER
20S FOR SATURDAY MORNING WHICH IN LIGHT OF SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED SEEMS
TOO LOW. WENT MORE WITH 25 TO 30 IN THE GRIDS. EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING FORECAST PLUS LOW WIND SPEEDS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
RECORDS BROKEN. ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THAT RISK AND ANOTHER
FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AS THE EVEN GETS A LITTLE CLOSER.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY TWO WET
SYSTEMS COMING ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE PATTERN VERIFIES SNOW
LEVELS WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER LEADING TO MOST OF THE SNOW MELTING.
STILL HAVE A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SO ONLY DID MINOR INCREASES
TO THE POPS