New York Snow (Feb 12-15)

[ksstormhunter]

Looking at some decent snowfall potential across NW New York, seeing potential to see close to 10" around Ft. Drum and Massena areas. Just pushed out some model data and Snowfall forecasts for that area.

[ksstormhunter]

Just ran latest 19Z Smartmodel run, looking over the snowfall potential for upstate NY area, still seeing general 3-5" across the areas, Buffalo and Syracuse especially getting pinged for the higher values.

[brunota2003]

We just had a decent lake effect snow on Weds/Thurs, was nothing like one county south of us, though (they got 19.0 inches in 5 hours! We only got about 6 or 7 inches total). Here is what the NWS (Buffalo) is saying (as of the afternoon package):

ON MONDAY A FAIRLY POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY...EXITING OFF THE MAINE COAST
BY EARLY EVENING. THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN. EARLY MORNING SHOULD STILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO INCREASE. PAST EXPERIENCE
SHOWS MODEL GUIDANCE OFTEN UNDER-FORECASTS THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS IN THIS WRAP AROUND...AND EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OUT OF THIS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ALSO EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT. IT WILL BE
QUITE WINDY AS WELL...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40MPH GIVEN THE 985MB LOW
PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT THE WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. ONE LAST
SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN FACT...MANY AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT THE SHORT
FETCH AND OTHERWISE DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT
INTENSITY.

Last time a system rolled through like this was 5 February, the models were forecasting 3 to 6 inches (GFS was 4 to 6), we got 9 inches of snow from 4 pm until about 2 am.

[ksstormhunter]

Just pushed out 05Z SmartModel data. Still looking at Ft. Drum and Massena 4-5" of snow for the later on Sunday. Looking at 2-3" more snow for Buffalo/Syracuse area tommorrow

[Wahoo]

Well this is a new week. If I heard the news right there is a chance that Oswego/Fulton area could get another 3 foot by Friday.