Texas Winter 2011-2012...

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Texas Snowman
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Re:

#3281 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:...this season's big action might be centered in the Ohio Valley. Texas might be at the trailing end of cold fronts so squally storms appears more likely come later spring imo.


Wow. In light of that thought, take a look at the discussion out of Nashville about tomorrow's potential severe weather outbreak.

On March 2nd, no less.

--------

"000
FXUS64 KOHX 012129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...A BIG SEVERE WX OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR MID TN
FRIDAY. STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. SPC CONTINUES TO POST A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE MID STATE. THIS EVENT LOOKS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL THAN THE SEVERE THREAT WE HAD
YESTERDAY...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES SINCE
APRIL 27, 2011. THIS EVENT COULD BE ONE OF THE GREATER IMPACT
EVENTS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE STRONGLY ADVISED
TO TAKE THIS THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY."[i]
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#3282 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:19 am

Joe B's thoughts tonight.

Since we're just all but past any hope of winter weather coming this far south, I sure hope he's wrong on the severe weather aspect.

@BigJoeBastardi: "Big worry now is unseasonably warm March, then countering cold in April causing problems to early veg growth, and enhanced tornadoes."
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#3283 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:21 am

This was not definitely an exciting winter for deep south texas but the rainfall has been very welcome! :D

Image
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#3284 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:48 am

My native trees are budding out now.

*Sticks a fork in it* :spam:

:sun:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3285 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:54 am

The Texas 2011-2012 winter is declared dead. Just like Texas roadkill, it never had a chance crossing that busy road.

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#3286 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 02, 2012 11:59 am

Latest model guidance still do not show significant cold or rain for Texas by March standards. GFS is mostly dry with some transient cooler shots. Euro is a bit more optimistic regarding some decent frontal passage rain 7+ days from now (is worth watching). Of course I still won't believe it until it holds on to that idea closer to within 5 days. PNA is at it's lowest value since November, fully expect the mild to warm days (quick cool shots lasting no more than a day) with plenty of sunshine for the next 5 days. A ridge will set up over the plains early next week, time to go fishing :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3287 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:19 pm

It appears that I, the Heat Miser has won! Winter is dead! Bring on the heat! I'll be around next winter to keep that cold air bottled up in Canada again.
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Re:

#3288 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:Latest model guidance still do not show significant cold or rain for Texas by March standards. GFS is mostly dry with some transient cooler shots. Euro is a bit more optimistic regarding some decent frontal passage rain 7+ days from now (is worth watching). Of course I still won't believe it until it holds on to that idea closer to within 5 days. PNA is at it's lowest value since November, fully expect the mild to warm days (quick cool shots lasting no more than a day) with plenty of sunshine for the next 5 days. A ridge will set up over the plains early next week, time to go fishing :cheesy:


For what is worth the CFSv2 is forecasting below normal temperatures for most of Texas in the 6-10 day range....Hey with a forecast high of 95F today I will take whatever cool weather I can get! :lol:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3289 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:45 pm

Tejas89 wrote:Wow! What a dud of a winter. I think we can put a lid on this one if not already.

What other winters match this one in terms of warmth? '07-'08 comes to mind but we had some late-season activity in N. Texas. I recall a couple or more disappointing winters in the 90s and early 00's. Just can't remember such a dud as the now-legendary "winter" of '11-'12.

Hopefully we're slipping into a Nino and the summer will resemble '07 as well.


As far as cold goes then yes, this winter has been pretty much a dud. BUT, for a La Nina winter which is typically dry, this has been anything but a dud. Most area lakes are back to being full, with a few still below and a few even above normal.

Good news is that the winter following back to back La Nina's are typically cold & wet!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3290 Postby Portastorm » Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:It appears that I, the Heat Miser has won! Winter is dead! Bring on the heat! I'll be around next winter to keep that cold air bottled up in Canada again.


You have won this time, Heat Miser. But your reign will end come November 2012. Me and my friends here ... you see, we have this axe to grind with you. And we're not going to let go until we get a real winter! :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3291 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:04 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It appears that I, the Heat Miser has won! Winter is dead! Bring on the heat! I'll be around next winter to keep that cold air bottled up in Canada again.


You have won this time, Heat Miser. But your reign will end come November 2012. Me and my friends here ... you see, we have this axe to grind with you. And we're not going to let go until we get a real winter! :cheesy:


Well that is it. That is it. The PWC has given up on winter. Nothing has been the same since Sammy left Van Halen....dang it...LOL. The dreams of winter, the loves of snow, the freshness of a norther is gone. I just spent 52 minutes and 30 seconds running 7 miles in heat and disgust. I am soaked from head to toe. Thank you Heat Miser. Sheesh. Back to regular programming...
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#3292 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:00 pm

Optimism post: PNA showing signs that it has bottomed out. Looks to rise towards neutral by mid month. This would give better merit to storms (yay for rain and weather!) past the coming week for Texas and the rest of the southern plains region.
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#3293 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:09 am

Temp of 41, dewpoint of 27.

Going to make a run at some frost tonight here in the Red River Valley.

Maybe it will look like snow if I close my eyes enough and squint hard enough.

:roll:
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#3294 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:56 am

It's becoming more evident from the major models that a significant early spring/late winter storm will effect Texas and the surrounding southern plains region. CMC/Euro/Ukmet are very slow with the cutoff low. GFS is trending slower as well. If verified, snow is possible along the I-40 region as well as west and possibly parts of the western hill country (depending on how much cold air is involved and track of the suspect low if it moves through at all).

On the warmer side, dynamics look very good for thunderstorms and copious amounts of rain especially if it is truly cutoff and does not move. This is a little over 5 days away so big changes are more than likely, but appears as a legitimate threat. If the cards are played right this storm does not look to be influenced by the northern stream. This gives it a good chance to deepen and remain strong as it tracks through.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3295 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Mar 04, 2012 3:23 pm

Wouldn't this storm track give us a stronger cap?
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3296 Postby Ntxw » Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:53 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Wouldn't this storm track give us a stronger cap?


Unless they keep trending further north, there should be enough energy at 5h to provide lift and overcome the cap if it verifies. The European continues to be the most bullish regarding heavy rain for the I-35/45 corridor and snow for west Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3297 Postby wxman57 » Sun Mar 04, 2012 9:33 pm

Saw a bunch of bluebonnets along the Brays Bayou bike trail today. Spring has sprung! Take that, winter!
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Re:

#3298 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:51 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Temp of 41, dewpoint of 27.

Going to make a run at some frost tonight here in the Red River Valley.

Maybe it will look like snow if I close my eyes enough and squint hard enough.

:roll:


Got down to 34 degrees here this morning. Not too many months of March pass here in the Red River Valley without at least a small handful of freezes.

This one may be one of the few.

Oh for the March snowstorms we've had here in the last few years. Saw 17" in back-to-back snowstorms here in Grayson County a few years ago.

Those were the good old days!
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3299 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Mar 05, 2012 12:57 am

wxman57 wrote:Saw a bunch of bluebonnets along the Brays Bayou bike trail today. Spring has sprung! Take that, winter!


Could get cold again this weekend. So winter is not over yet. Also, it can get cold in April. :grrr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3300 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Mar 05, 2012 12:57 am

somethingfunny wrote:Wouldn't this storm track give us a stronger cap?


If the storm travels further north, yes there is capping. Further south, the cap breaks.
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