Texas Winter 2011-2012...

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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3221 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a sucky weekend for bicycling (again).



Trust me Wxman57, you will not find ANY sympathy on this thread!!!! :D :rain:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3222 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:This is so strange! GFS is the loner in showing oodles of snow/sleet for deep south Texas (18z included). Why? Because it's the most aggressive with precip amounts. That is usually never the case...very puzzling. I refuse to believe it, winter cancel!


It's forecasting 4-6 inches of snow just west of Corpus and just a little over an 1 inch for my area..... :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3223 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:26 pm

Ntxw,the AO has turned positive.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3224 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ntxw,the AO has turned positive.


Thanks for the information, that and prospects of a -PNA in the coming days is partially why I decided to cave into the winter cancel idea :(

Trying my best to see any signs of something magical for March, just isn't there atm. All teleconnections look grim (+AO, -PNA, +NAO, +EPO) blah.

Edit: Here is the 18z GFS sounding near Corpus Christi. Indicates snow is falling above their heads with a somewhat dry layer near the surface (and above freezing). If precip is steady enough wet bulbing for snow/graupel to fall while the ground is around 38-40 per the GFS. NAM is not as wet, Euro is similar to the NAM camp for now.

42hrs

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And here is the 18z GFS sounding for near Rio Grande City (RGV20!) essentially similar.

39hrs

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#3225 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:16 pm

Lol, I might chase that just because it's on a Saturday and I've always wanted to visit Corpus.
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#3226 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:03 pm

Well so much for my area flirting with the 90F mark, it got only to 79F....We had some pretty bad fog in the morning and the clouds never left.

Thanks for the graphic NTXW! The GFS sure is interesting but I wont be surprise if the 0z run pulls the Football! :lol:
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#3227 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:29 pm

Just for fun here is the 18zGFS forecast snowfall thru 39hrs :lol:

Image
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#3228 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:27 pm

0zNam forecasting some snow in the Mountains of NE Mexico...Interesting that the NAM has been trending toward the GFS but not as extreme.

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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3229 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:54 pm

Rgv I hope you get some snow out of this! I bet you would be very happy as you don't get to see much snow down there. Even if it's a cold rain, enjoy it!
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Re:

#3230 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:06 pm

:uarrow: Not going to happen STS! Taking a quick look at the 0zGFS it looks like it backed of on the winter weather for South Texas. It still looks like a cold rainy Saturday for the RGV.



Rgv20 wrote:Thanks for the graphic NTXW! The GFS sure is interesting but I wont be surprise if the 0z run pulls the Football! :lol:


Can somebody help me up?? lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3231 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:17 pm

Does seem the GFS did go warm. It's untrustworthy! It's had a putrid winter of forecasting this season. It's usually hard to go with, but this year has just been silly! It's done it to all of us this season and won't quit until May :P.

A couple of posts ago I mentioned that a third system (Tues-Thurs) time frame of next week looked promising, it still remains that way. Models have been trending slower with it trying to dig further west and south than previously. It does look like the high plains and maybe the panhandles could get involved with a colder solution. It's also a bigger widespread thunderstorm producer as well. Should be something nice to track either way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3232 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:A couple of posts ago I mentioned that a third system (Tues-Thurs) time frame of next week looked promising, it still remains that way. Models have been trending slower with it trying to dig further west and south than previously. It does look like the high plains and maybe the panhandles could get involved with a colder solution. It's also a bigger widespread thunderstorm producer as well. Should be something nice to track either way.



Bastardi mentioned that in a tweet yesterday or the day before. Maybe a threat for I-40 region?
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#3233 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:30 am

Even though the Operational GFS backed of on the snow chances, some of the 0zGFS Ensembles still holding out on the idea of some winter weather in South Texas.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3234 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Feb 25, 2012 3:09 am

I love Dennis Cavanaugh's discussions so much:

000
FXUS64 KFWD 250532 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
LATE THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. ONLY SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
AND THE WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM AS A RESULT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES SLIDING SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL BUT SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS
UPPER FEATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
TOMORROW KEEPING RAIN CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS. DEWPOINT
AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. THIS
EVENING...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
REGION. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS. IN ADDITION...SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THERE AS WELL. FOR THE UPDATE...
MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO INCLUDE LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN
SOME LOW LYING SPOTS TO THE UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE DFW
METROPLEX.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012/

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THERE WAS A COMPACT UPPER LOW CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM
EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TX TO THE PACIFIC MEXICAN COAST. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY TEMPERATURES REMAINED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS AS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS KEPT A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS REMAINED VERY DRY OVER THE REGION WITH THE 12Z FWD UPPER AIR
SOUNDING OBSERVING ONLY A THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND AFTERNOON DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER EAST
TX BY SATURDAY MORNING AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE CUT OFF LOW SOUTHWEST OF TX AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO DEEP SOUTH TX AS WELL AS NEAR THE TX GULF
COAST...HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
CWA. THE ONLY REAL IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON NORTH TX IS TO DEFLECT
THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION FOR 24 TO 36 HRS. LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE GOMEX WHICH WILL KEEP CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE WESTERN GOMEX DESPITE THE ONSET OF SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING.

AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL OK
AND NORTH CENTRAL TX...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE
HOLDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EAST TX TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WOULD SET UP OVER WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE WOULD LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THE DIMINISHING STRENGTH OF THE EAST TX
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA TOMORROW...MEANING OVERALL FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE GOMEX UPPER LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW ALOFT AND
EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GOMEX AND SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH TX. OVERALL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ON
SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT ASSUMING SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS...HIGHER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
DANGER POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SEND DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SURGE OF MORNING STRATUS. PERSISTENT
WARM AIR AND MOIST ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY HAS
GLOBAL MODELS SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...INDICATING THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT LIFT
THROUGH THE MOIST LAYER IS GRADUAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD JUST
RESULT IN A THICK STRATUS DECK RATHER THAN LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
JUST MENTION CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT OR
POSSIBLY A DRYLINE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY LACK OF GOOD
FORCING AND SURFACE HEATING WITH A GOOD STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER DESTABILIZATION AND LIKELY BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ONLY 10 PERCENT AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRATUS DECK AND LIMITED FORCING IS FAIRLY HIGH.

EXTENDED...BEHIND TUESDAYS DRYLINE OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT...A MUCH
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR DEEP GULF MOISTURE
RETURN OUT AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH


Translations:

Could get chilly tonight but most areas won't freeze.

Could be a high fire danger day Saturday or maybe Sunday but probably not on either.

Could be some drizzle on Sunday or Monday, maybe.

Might be some storms on Tuesday but they look like a bust at the moment.

Could be a storm system at the end of next week but I'm not so sure about it having any moisture.

Man that's a lot of text for such an ordinary forecast! - but I love reading them and learn a ton from them, so please keep it up if you ever read this thread. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3235 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Feb 25, 2012 3:42 am

:uarrow: Yeah I do too. He is one of the best writers of AFDs imo. Very detailed and explained very well.
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#3236 Postby gboudx » Sat Feb 25, 2012 8:53 am

I've emailed the DFW NWS in the past to pass on my appreciation for his detailed AFDs. The webmaster replied thanking me and said he/she would let him know.
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#3237 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 11:29 am

Even though I did not receive any winter weather the rain was very welcome! I got 0.79 and it was coming down at a pretty good clip for a while with a temperature of 42F. :cold:
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Re:

#3238 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:03 pm

gboudx wrote:I've emailed the DFW NWS in the past to pass on my appreciation for his detailed AFDs. The webmaster replied thanking me and said he/she would let him know.


That's good. I'm his friend on Facebook and I tell him every once in a while how I love how detailed his AFDs are.
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Re:

#3239 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:03 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Even though I did not receive any winter weather the rain was very welcome! I got 0.79 and it was coming down at a pretty good clip for a while with a temperature of 42F. :cold:



Good for you Rgv! You guys still need the rain down there!
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#3240 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:03 pm

Seems like winter may have died on page 162.
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