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PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:45 pm 
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Snow pack is building up guys!!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:03 am 
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wxman57 wrote:
hriverajr wrote:
Well at least maybe some measure of satisfaction. This weekend may be on the cool side to ride the bike ;)

personally I like to ride when its around 60 outside.


Yes, about 20 degrees too cold for me (mid 60s for highs) this weekend. I can't stand riding with a coat, tights, full-finger gloves and a hat, as I would in 60-deg weather. Has to be over 75 degrees for me to bike in shorts/short sleeve. Over 80 for sleeveless jersey. 85 is just about right so I don't get chilled on a long ride.



But here you'd meet more of your kind (same funny hair/clothes): http://www.saskatooncycles.org/?p=277 Ice Rally Ride at -40C (including windchill) :lol: and :eek: peeps were actually smiling and laughing.


Last edited by SaskatchewanScreamer on Wed Feb 29, 2012 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:41 am 
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Still no solid sign of any storm strong enough to bring significant weather to Texas in the near to medium term. Mostly north with cloudy mild days and warm nights until frontal passage knocks us back down to near normal end of the week. -PNA still has a strong hold, so any forecast of heavy rain or chill by models beyond 5 days I would not buy into it.

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 1:05 am 
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:uarrow: I still don't agree with your lack of rainfall after 5 days Ntxw and neither does Larry Cosgrove. He is a good met imo.

Here is a snippet from his weather article yesterday:
"Incidentally, the longer term computer models are VERY aggressive with rainfall potential and cooler temperature anomalies in TX and OK between March 8 and 13. There is evidence that the subtropical jet stream will align from Baja California through the Lone Star State, then on into the Eastern Seaboard. IF this scenario verifies, there is fair potential to eliminate any and all drought measures in the Houston-Galveston metro by the middle of March."


http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ry-27-2012


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 1:34 am 
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Perhaps in the long range yeah south texas storms. I want to see the STJ come alive first. But as of right now none of the models forecast any heavy rain in the near future. Just a lot of high dewpoints from an open gulf with minimal lift. Hpc 5 day qpf forecast doesn't look impressive for the state as a whole.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:16 am 
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TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Snow pack is building up guys!!!!


And it will be 76 today, and 83 degrees here tomorrow.... :cold:


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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:57 am 
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I heard the fat lady singing several weeks ago (out in central TX). A brief snow pack in the Dakotas won't help you cold mongerers now! My time of the year is fast-approaching.
:layout:

Update: 12Z GFS doesn't even have any freezing temps in Texas through the first 2 weeks of March. My kind of winter weather!


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:30 pm 
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We should be thanking mother nature for keeping this storm further north. The midwest and ohio valley have seen extensive damage from twisters as we can probably see over in the USA weather section. Usually patterns are set early in a new season. We have transitioned into spring pretty much so where these storms go/behave they will tend to repeat as the season progresses.

12z Euro is cooler than the GFS in the long range, I'm hopin! Grasping straws at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:09 pm 
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Yes you are...
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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 4:54 pm 
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Wow! What a dud of a winter. I think we can put a lid on this one if not already.

What other winters match this one in terms of warmth? '07-'08 comes to mind but we had some late-season activity in N. Texas. I recall a couple or more disappointing winters in the 90s and early 00's. Just can't remember such a dud as the now-legendary "winter" of '11-'12.

Hopefully we're slipping into a Nino and the summer will resemble '07 as well.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 6:48 pm 
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:uarrow: To the non-winter of 2011-12 and to those on this board that took so much glee in this wasted season at our expense, please allow this philosophical thought from Vinny Barbarino:

"Up your nose with a rubber hose!"

:D

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 7:09 pm 
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I'm not sure of this, but it feels like second year Ninas are bad winters. 01-02, 08-09 were also second year ninas and for the conus as a whole were not very good. Perhaps someone with skills on analogs and statistics can clarify. 74-75 was another that was a second year nina, typically considered bad as well. 2011-12 is a second year nina.

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:24 pm 
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South Texas Storms wrote:
:uarrow: I still don't agree with your lack of rainfall after 5 days Ntxw and neither does Larry Cosgrove. He is a good met imo.

Here is a snippet from his weather article yesterday:
"Incidentally, the longer term computer models are VERY aggressive with rainfall potential and cooler temperature anomalies in TX and OK between March 8 and 13. There is evidence that the subtropical jet stream will align from Baja California through the Lone Star State, then on into the Eastern Seaboard. IF this scenario verifies, there is fair potential to eliminate any and all drought measures in the Houston-Galveston metro by the middle of March."


http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ry-27-2012


Even in wet periods, there are dry periods. Hopefully if the forecast does verify, all of Texas's drought is reduced.


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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:32 pm 
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Ntxw wrote:
I'm not sure of this, but it feels like second year Ninas are bad winters. 01-02, 08-09 were also second year ninas and for the conus as a whole were not very good. Perhaps someone with skills on analogs and statistics can clarify. 74-75 was another that was a second year nina, typically considered bad as well. 2011-12 is a second year nina.


2001-2002 was Neutral. 1974-1975 and 2008-2009 were Weak La Nina.

1974-1975 was warm and again up north. It was wetter than normal. 2001-2002 had warmer winters, especially up north. It also dry that winter so less snow. That lack of snow was one reason why they were able to clean the World Trade Center wreckage from 9/11 Terrorist Attacks. Some states had their warmest and driest winter on record, like New York, South Dakota, and Michigan. 2008-2009 was warm and dry in the south, while up north was cooler. Texas had their driest winter on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... /cag3.html


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 Post subject: Re: Re:
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:56 pm 
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Ptarmigan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
I'm not sure of this, but it feels like second year Ninas are bad winters. 01-02, 08-09 were also second year ninas and for the conus as a whole were not very good. Perhaps someone with skills on analogs and statistics can clarify. 74-75 was another that was a second year nina, typically considered bad as well. 2011-12 is a second year nina.


2001-2002 was Neutral. 1974-1975 and 2008-2009 were Weak La Nina.

1974-1975 was warm and again up north. It was wetter than normal. 2001-2002 had warmer winters, especially up north. It also dry that winter so less snow. That lack of snow was one reason why they were able to clean the World Trade Center wreckage from 9/11 Terrorist Attacks. Some states had their warmest and driest winter on record, like New York, South Dakota, and Michigan. 2008-2009 was warm and dry in the south, while up north was cooler. Texas had their driest winter on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... /cag3.html


The 90's were TERRIBLE if i remember correctly. All except maybe 1996 and the snow event in 1994.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 11:10 pm 
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Here is a snippet from Bob Rose today:

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

"I’m watching weather developments late next week with much interest. Today’s ECMWF forecast model continues to call for the development of a large trough of low pressure across the western US, with this trough tracking to the east during the middle and latter parts of the week. A cold front associated the trough is forecast to sweep across Texas Thursday and this time, conditions appear favorable for the development of rain showers and thunderstorms. However, rain amounts don’t appear to be all that heavy. Dry weather looks to return Friday. The ECMWF then indicates a very strong cold front will push south out of Canada and into Texas next weekend. Today’s solution shows a 1047 MB high pressure system across the plains. This type of high pressure system would have the potential to bring some very chilly air into Texas next weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a freeze at most locations and possibly a hard freeze across the Hill Country.
 
Being this far out, the cold event is far from certain. Most other forecast solutions are not indicating this magnitude of cold air just yet. However, the ECMWF solution does have good skill with these types of situations. I don’t have strong confidence in this whole situation just yet, but if this solution shows up in the next couple of model runs, I do think this cold forecast will have good merit. Stay tuned. Winter may not be over with just yet.
 
Bob"
 

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 Post subject: Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:42 am 
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I find myself in the very unusual and uncomfortable position of dousing enthusiasm for winter weather. The 0z Euro backed off entirely from that scenario and the 0z GFS shows nothing like a strong cold front coming later next week.

I'm telling you guys, it's over and it's been over for awhile now. Sad but true. But I love your "never say die" attitude. Surely, the good Lord will honor that next winter as we enjoy multiple ice/snow events and wxman57 is forced to go into hibernation due to the severity of the winter!

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:49 am 
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I will never give up. Today's morning 5 mile run was disgusting. Today's 7 miler will be worse. I want at least normal temperatures. :)


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 12:19 pm 
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I'm ok with chalking this winter as a loss. Last few have been great to us. Now next year, i expect big things! JoeB is on our side with this too. You think we could get ourselves into a weak El Nino? I think a weak Nino is my fav type of scenario. Not too crazy with the hurricanes, provides plenty of moisture etc.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:03 pm 
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There's no blocking. If you want to overpower the March rise in sun and warmth (for those special spring events) there needs to be strong case of it. -PNA says no way! Bring on the OFF!

Happy meteorological Spring!

The only blocking seen around here is Banana Boat applied by administration at PWC due to the outrageous amount of sunshine

Edit: Looking at data and stuff, many posts ago there was a question about severe weather in Texas. It is early, but there has been a good pattern indication this season's big action might be centered in the Ohio Valley. Texas might be at the trailing end of cold fronts so squally storms appears more likely come later spring imo.

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