A couple of trends I've noticed so far today...- The models are way too warm in the short term.
At 17z (11am) the temperature in Norman, OK was 26.1F at the mesonet. That is much colder than the models thought it would be at that time. The 12z NAM was predicting an 11am temperature in Norman of 34.2F and the 06z GFS thought the temperature would be up to 34.3F at noon (which is looking highly unlikely since it is still 27.5F at 11:45am). update: actual noon temp was 27.9F- Precipitation to our south and west is slightly greater in extent and intensity than some of the models were predicting for this time frame.
11:08am actual southern plains radar image: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/29 ... lains.gif/
14z HRRR composite reflectivity forecast for 11am: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... fc_f03.png
12z RUC composite reflectivity forecast for 11am: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
Whether or not these trends will continue or have any impact on the forecast for tonight is yet to be seen. I just wanted to bring attention to them so that we can start to get a handle on how well the models might/might now be handling this developing event.