Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

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wxfan78
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#81 Postby wxfan78 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:56 am

Whats everyone thinking for the storm coming in here on the 19th-20th? Anybody think any cold air can make it down the plains?
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#82 Postby BlueIce » Wed Dec 14, 2011 2:49 pm

We have another one to watch for the next 6 days. I would be surprised to see this verify in any form, but, we will see.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#83 Postby wxfan78 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:03 pm

If only we could get that low to track about another 100-150 miles to the southeast!
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#84 Postby BlueIce » Wed Dec 14, 2011 3:28 pm

wxfan78 wrote:If only we could get that low to track about another 100-150 miles to the southeast!



At this point it may very well track that far to the SE. If you look at the temperatures for the surface at that same time period it looks like it could be pretty warm in central Oklahoma.

Edit: Actually looking at the data the temperature profiles, moisture, and upper atmosphere look pretty good right now. At 144 hours the Skew-T appears to have a snow profile.
GFS 12z run @ 138 hours over OKC - w/Change over to sleet
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GFS 12z run @ 144hours over OKC - w/Moisture indicates snow
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Last edited by BlueIce on Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#85 Postby wxfan78 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:14 pm

BlueIce wrote:
wxfan78 wrote:If only we could get that low to track about another 100-150 miles to the southeast!



At this point it may very well track that far to the SE. If you look at the temperatures for the surface at that same time period it looks like it could be pretty warm in central Oklahoma.


Yeah i see where it pulls some cold air southward on the GFS, but it may be after the low has passed. Maybe it will have a cold core with it and that would support snowfall but who knows. This thing is all over the place right now. Really wish we could get some cold air down here!
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#86 Postby BlueIce » Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:29 pm

At about 4:30 we should see what the 18z GFS holds. This is still a long ways out, if you remember the last storm the NAM and GFS at 72 hours were saying up to 12" of snow around Oklahoma and they did not verify at all.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#87 Postby wxfan78 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:48 pm

Yes i remember that all to well.....it got my hopes up only to see them come crashing down. What time frame do the models depict storms well if at all? 24-48 hrs possibly?
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#88 Postby BlueIce » Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:36 pm

wxfan78 wrote:Yes i remember that all to well.....it got my hopes up only to see them come crashing down. What time frame do the models depict storms well if at all? 24-48 hrs possibly?


Well it all depends on how the models are doing with storms. Generally 72 hours is pretty reliable. But the models can have difficulty with systems that have non-standard features like that last system. It was really two storms, but the models made it seem like one storm center. The NAM and the GFS were in disagreement about the timing and track of the movement of the system and came into agreement around the 60 hour time frame.

If anyone else would like to chime in on the various model quirks please feel free.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#89 Postby wxfan78 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:48 pm

BlueIce wrote:
wxfan78 wrote:Yes i remember that all to well.....it got my hopes up only to see them come crashing down. What time frame do the models depict storms well if at all? 24-48 hrs possibly?


Well it all depends on how the models are doing with storms. Generally 72 hours is pretty reliable. But the models can have difficulty with systems that have non-standard features like that last system. It was really two storms, but the models made it seem like one storm center. The NAM and the GFS were in disagreement about the timing and track of the movement of the system and came into agreement around the 60 hour time frame.

If anyone else would like to chime in on the various model quirks please feel free.


Thanks. Hopefully it can get a good handle on this next one and keep showing our snow chances increasing!
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#90 Postby wxfan78 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:03 pm

Is the ULL that is spinning in Southern Calif the one we are watching for early next week? If so it seems to be ahead of schedule.
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#91 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:05 am

There was a little southern trend with the models tonight.

- GFS with very slightly South and West

- CMC was significantly further south and much slower.

- EURO looks to be further south and east. 12z was around the the Woodward, Ok area, and the 0z was around the Miami, Ok area, so pretty good bit there.

Overall, I've been see a small trend in the ensembles, and it's apparently making it's way over to the operational models, will be interesting to see if the model keep the trend going, or go back to the earlier solutions.

FYI, the NOGAPS was the first to show in earlier today.

EDIT: 0z GFS ensembles also support a more SE track.
Last edited by TwisterFanatic on Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#92 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:06 am

wxfan78 wrote:Is the ULL that is spinning in Southern Calif the one we are watching for early next week? If so it seems to be ahead of schedule.


Yes, it's going to sit there and spin for about 3 days before it moves east.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#93 Postby wxfan78 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 8:12 am

TwisterFanatic wrote:
wxfan78 wrote:Is the ULL that is spinning in Southern Calif the one we are watching for early next week? If so it seems to be ahead of schedule.


Yes, it's going to sit there and spin for about 3 days before it moves east.


Thank you for clearing that up for me. Lets hope the models keep trending south and east!
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#94 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Dec 19, 2011 1:59 am

Well, as you probably know, the Models went back to the original solution. :lol: Major Winter Storm for the Panhandle, and possible some flurries/light snow for North Central OK as the system wraps up on Tuesday Evening.

Now, something interesting. We got a big trough coming in around Christmas Eve/Day. The GFS and CMC want to create some Winter Weather in Texas on X-Mas Eve night or so, while the EURO is a little further north showing Snow for North Texas/Oklahoma going into Christmas. The EURO has been hinting at something in this timeframe for the past 3 days or so, but now the GFS and CMC are starting to buy in. Might be something to watch!

Either way, it looks like it will be a chilly Christmas!
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Re:

#95 Postby wxfan78 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:12 am

TwisterFanatic wrote:Well, as you probably know, the Models went back to the original solution. :lol: Major Winter Storm for the Panhandle, and possible some flurries/light snow for North Central OK as the system wraps up on Tuesday Evening.

Now, something interesting. We got a big trough coming in around Christmas Eve/Day. The GFS and CMC want to create some Winter Weather in Texas on X-Mas Eve night or so, while the EURO is a little further north showing Snow for North Texas/Oklahoma going into Christmas. The EURO has been hinting at something in this timeframe for the past 3 days or so, but now the GFS and CMC are starting to buy in. Might be something to watch!

Either way, it looks like it will be a chilly Christmas!


What are the models showing for around here on Christmas Eve now? I see some local mets are putting slight chances of snow on their 7-day at around Friday. Do you think we may have a chance at something?
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#96 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Dec 22, 2011 9:54 pm

I'm seeing snow on the radar in OK especially in the Tulsa area and some around OKC and Lawton. No reports from our OK members?
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#97 Postby jporterOCCC » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:24 am

Well we did get some snow last night but it didn't stick. The ground temp was still to warm. I am so ready for heavy snow and ice to be here
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#98 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:46 pm

Snow last night stayed just north of me.

Looks like we got a good shot of a Rain to Snow mix Christmas night across much of Eastern Oklahoma. Shouldn't amount to a whole lot, but looks like we might see some white stuff nonetheless.
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#99 Postby kmc8264 » Mon Jan 09, 2012 7:11 pm

So is there any hope for Ok getting any frozen precipitation this winter? I have to read the Texas site for any discussions on that. Is it just wishful thinking on my part that the Tx weather will move north?
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Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2011-2012

#100 Postby ouamber » Mon Jan 09, 2012 8:02 pm

All I ever do is read the Texas forum!! GFS wanted to throw us a bone for the 15th of January, only by the 18Z to take it away and move the system east. I am beginning to lose hope in winter...does look to get colder...but whether is sustains is another question. This weather patterns blows BIG time...Oklahoma as well as 95% of the country is not seeing any snow whatsoever...here's hoping that 15th storm comes back on the GFS for us and the EURO starts showing it as well....
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