2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

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somethingfunny
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#161 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Feb 02, 2012 1:48 pm

Has Jim Cantore shown up at DEN yet? :eek:
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#162 Postby Dencolo » Thu Feb 02, 2012 1:56 pm

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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#163 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Feb 02, 2012 2:31 pm

FROM THE HPC...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
137 PM EST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID FEB 02/1200 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...


12Z/02 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES


ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.


...SYSTEM PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 1...

PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND

THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING OVER EASTERN COLORADO DAY 1. THE GEM GLOBAL AND
UKMET FOCUS A BULLSEYE NEAR DENVER...SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND ECMWF.
BASED ON THEIR CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC DETAIL OVER THE
FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...WILL RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF.


man I wish the EURO was available online besides their crappy website that doesnt show anything.
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#164 Postby denversnowlover » Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:17 pm

haha no Jim yet lol
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#165 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:38 pm

18 z NAM now painting 1.75 inches of QPF up to Denver...thats over 2 feet snow equivalent.


EDIT; 18z GFS just came out wetter. has 1.5 inch QPF bullseye just the NE of the Metro. Puts us in Denver from about 1 inch up to close to 1.25-1.5.

The afternoon model consensus seems to be even a bit wetter.
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#166 Postby SCMedic » Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:07 pm

Sorry I'm late to the party... Been busy..

The new NAM is upwards of 2" QPF across the urban corridor. Without a lot of rain at the onset, which is looking less and less likely, this translates to well over 2' of snow. If the banding sets up along the front range as indicated on the models, this will be a top 10 possibly top 5 storm for Denver. Think 25-30" in spots. All models are trending wetter. System is slow. This is going to be a HUGE mess tomorrow.

This is the storm that makes your average year a big snow year.
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#167 Postby denversnowlover » Thu Feb 02, 2012 7:13 pm

SCMedic i am so excited lol!! Lol
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#168 Postby Dencolo » Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:13 pm

5" already in Dear Trail

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
847 PM MST THU FEB 02 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0846 PM SNOW DEER TRAIL 39.62N 104.04W
02/02/2012 M5.0 INCH ARAPAHOE CO PUBLIC

0842 PM SNOW STRASBURG 39.74N 104.30W
02/02/2012 M4.0 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0828 PM SNOW 1 NNE STRASBURG 39.75N 104.29W
02/02/2012 M3.5 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#169 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:24 pm

Dang...definately been snowing more east of 470 on radar. I wouldn't be surprised in Denver ends up in the 16 -18 inch range with a quick gradient east birth places like Bennett and deer trail seeing 24+
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#170 Postby Dencolo » Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:30 pm

Can this storm crack into the top 12 since 1946? This may be one of the rarer storms where DIA actually records more snow than the areas closer to downtown and surrounding metro.

From http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/awebphp/snowstat.php

The Top 12 Denver Snowstorms since 1946:
31.8 inches Mar 18, 2003
30.4 inches Nov 03, 1946
23.8 inches Dec 24, 1982
21.9 inches Oct 25, 1997
21.5 inches Nov 27, 1983
21.2 inches Nov 19, 1991
18.7 inches Mar 05, 1983
17.7 inches Nov 19, 1979
17.3 inches Apr 01, 1957
16.9 inches Mar 20, 1952
16.0 inches Oct 03, 1969
15.8 inches Apr 26, 1972
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#171 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Feb 03, 2012 12:11 am

Green echoes finally starting to fill in across the metro. Up to a could inches here dowtown. Looking for it to pick up soon ...
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#172 Postby SCMedic » Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:00 am

4" or so in Broomfield. Wet and warm (33) still. Roads are trash. Coming down hard. Temp drop is going to cause all kinds of problems.
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#173 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Feb 03, 2012 1:51 am

One last update before bed...snow finally picked up again. Have 3-4 inches here. Am a bit concerned that temps aren't dropping as forecast. Still hovering around 30-31....which won't produce those 15:1 ratios we would likely need to get up toward a couple feet with 1.5 inch of qpf. Even a crappy 10:1 will still be a big storm, just sayin those higheramouts may not materialize if temps don't start dropping into the mid 20s
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#174 Postby SCMedic » Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:29 am

Temps finally in the mid-20's. 9" on the ground already. Should top the record still. Wind a factor.
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#175 Postby Dencolo » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:19 am

9.5" on cement, 12.5" on patio furniture. They just upped the point forecast for my area to. If this realizes, could be near two feet!

Snow total map below as of 8am

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/precip/precip_map.php

But this map is even more crazy!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=bou

Today: Snow. High near 28. Blustery, with a north wind between 14 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 20. North northwest wind between 8 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#176 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Feb 03, 2012 12:37 pm

Yeah I've got about 12-13....some areas on the sunny side have a couple inches less as the took forever to cool off(also they were just on leeward side of the ne wind). my point forecast is upped as well...5-9 today ad 3-5 tonight. I tll be interesting...just doesn't seem to be snowing that hard. I think I'd be hard pressed to hav 20 by tonight.

Edit: the lunch time models are out and nam squeezes out another .75...gfs is down to .25. I think gfs kinda missed on this as it obviously didn't see the higher qpfs in the foothills. It has the bullseye still out over fort Morgan. I've learned that gfs often does that, maybe it sees thte mountains but doesnt know where to put the upslope bullseye. Either way, average out another half inch of liquid at mid 20s temps and thats another 7-8 inches total.
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#177 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:18 pm

Picked back up again in the past little bit. Looks like somwhere around 14 inches. 7news is saying Denver has had 8 inches...where they get this crap?
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#178 Postby SCMedic » Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:35 pm

DIA
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#179 Postby Dencolo » Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:54 pm

16" now at my place and the heaviest yet. I've noticed green on the radar in small flakes vs green with big flakes makes a huge difference. Big flakes equals faster accumulation. We were under the heavier radar echos earlier for a lot of the morning, but now things are really accumulating fast.

The #s below are a little old (and some are older than others so you can't compere), but I think we can officially say this is a very potent storm. I'm sure Conifer is over 3 feet now.

Aurora 12"
Castle Rock 14.8"
Highlands Ranch 9"
Pinecliffe 34.5"
Denver 11"
Bennett 13.0"
Sterling 5"
Livermore 27"
Nederland 28.5"
Arapahoe Park 19.9"
Parker 10"
Fort Collins 12.5"
Superior 12.6"
Buckhorn Mountain 27"
Black Hawk 28.5"
Masonville 20.3"
Colorado Springs 5.2"
Leadville 1.7"
Woodrow 6.5"
Montrose 1"
Conifer 33"
Lyons 9.3"
Estes Park 10.4"
Genesee 19.2"
Glen Haven 13.1"
Littleton 12.6"
Jamestown 35.1"
Boulder 16.3
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Re: 2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

#180 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:48 pm

Agreed...those foothill numbers are unreal. And 48 hours ago we though the foothills would miss out. Anywho...had some good mod to heavy stuff for about the past 2 hours...still heavier now than it was at like 8 this morning. Im around 15 here in east denver now too...starting to see some compacting too..
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