North Country Winter - Rain and snow

[brunota2003]

First post on this winter from here at Fort Drum and the North Country...up to this point, the winter has been lackluster at best. With the New Year, that is about to change. A major lake effect event (meaning snow totals of 3+ feet likely) is about to set up, along with very strong winds during the first part of the event. The NWS even put out an alert to the media in their AFD. I will be traveling to Syracuse and back tomorrow evening/night, we will be looking hard at this and planning our route accordingly. The easiest route is I-81 straight down, but I don't know if it'll be open, or if it'll get shut down at some point. I will be taking extra clothes and supplies. Parts of the route are forecast to get 7 to 11 inches tomorrow and another 7 to 11 inches tomorrow night.

Here is the latest from them:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AND
PRODUCES LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WINTER SO FAR ON TUESDAY. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END BY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM ABOUT KITCHENER
ONTARIO TO JUST EAST OF CLEVELAND. THE FRONT WILL RACE EAST AND
CROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A RAPID
DIMINISHING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

LOTS TO TALK ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HERE IS THE BREAKDOWN.

SYNOPTIC...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEAR MANITOULIN ISLAND ON
LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
TOWARDS LABRADOR BY MONDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL NOT
CLEAR...THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
EFFECT AREAS. LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD NON-LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPENING OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH.

NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...

OFF LAKE ERIE...
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT GIVEN THE VERY WARM
START AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY MID EVENING TO START A BAND. STRONG
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INITIALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING TOO ORGANIZED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER DOES FORM
WILL DO SO ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN LATER TONIGHT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE
REACHING 250J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 10K FEET BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE WELL ALIGNED OVERNIGHT...AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT AFTER ABOUT
06Z MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WIND SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS SHEAR IS CONCERNED AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY. FORECAST PROFILES AND
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW AND STEADY PROGRESSION
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO TO
SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...THEN
INTO THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
SHORELINE BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH STEADILY IMPROVING INSTABILITY EXPECT
THE BAND TO GAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY ON ITS WAY SOUTH...WITH
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY TO REACH 4-6 INCHES ACROSS
THE MORE DISTANT SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO SUCH AS HAMBURG...OP
AND EAST AURORA...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES
AND SOUTHWEST GENESEE COUNTY WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN WESTERN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AS WELL. IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF AREA...EXPECT AN
INCH OR LESS NORTHTOWNS...AND 2-4 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CITY INTO THE EASTERN SUBURBS.

ON MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES REACHING 400J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 11K FOOT EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH WELL ALIGNED CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE A
NEARLY IDEAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT
COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT
MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE ANALOG FOR A MAJOR CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 2 FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.

GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE ANALOG COMPARISON AND LAKE PARAMETERS...
EXPECT HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE FROM THE DISTANT BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS AT 12Z MONDAY STEADILY SOUTH THROUGH SKI COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN TIER ON MONDAY. THE MOTION OF THE BAND WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...BUT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
SHOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME TOTALS OF 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY IN PERSISTENT BANDS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
COLD AIR WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO DEEPEN...WITH LITTLE OR NO
LAKE EFFECT THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY LAKE INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY IMPROVES WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO 10K FEET. EXPECT
A DISORGANIZED BAND TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
WATERTOWN...WITH UPSLOPE BEGINNING ON THE NORTHERN TUG HILL AS WELL.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN...WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER ABOUT 3 AM. WITH THE
LATER START AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS...ACCUMS SHOULD BE HELD TO ONLY 1-3 INCHES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

ON MONDAY THINGS SHOULD REALLY CRANK OF ONTARIO WITH LAKE INDUCED
CAPES RISING TO 300J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 10K FEET.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DYNAMIC UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO
LAKE HURON WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES ALIGNED DUE WESTERLY...WITH IDEAL UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. A LOOK AT OUR LAKE EFFECT COMPOSITE ANALOG CHARTS SHOWS THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THIS EVENT MATCHING UP VERY CLOSELY TO THE
ANALOG FOR A MAJOR TUG HILL EVENT...WITH MAJOR BEING DEFINED AS 3
FEET OR MORE MAX STORM TOTALS.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO INTENSIFY OVER WATERTOWN
AND POINTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE ROUTE 3 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...THEN SLOWLY SINK
ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE SHOULD
ALSO BE OCCURRING ON THE TUG HILL EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN BAND GETS
THERE. EXPECT 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG HILL. LOWER ELEVATIONS IN PERSISTENT
BANDS MAY GET 8-12 INCHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH 1-2 FEET ON
THE TUG HILL DURING MONDAY.

WINDS...
MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BACKED OFF BY ABOUT
10 KNOTS ON WINDS ALOFT...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. STILL...IT IS A VERY FAVORABLE STORM
TRACK JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH FUNNELING DOWN THE LENGTH OF
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE FROM THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEAR
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO JEFFERSON COUNTY LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECT A FEW
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN.

BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...
THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...LEADING TO NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND VERY DIFFICULT OR EVEN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH
THE COLD CORE ALOFT OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM LAKE ERIE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN TRADITIONAL AREAS...BOSTON HILLS...CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WESTERN
WYOMING COUNTY...TAPERING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY TOWARD OLEAN...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS EASTWARD
ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY. HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OVERNIGHT...WITH 1-6 INCHES ARCHING AROUND
THE MAIN BAND FROM THE SOUTHTOWNS TO ARCADE...BELMONT AND BOLIVAR.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG WITH BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING TO CAUSE
SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THEY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK.

ON TUESDAY...AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED OFF LAKE
ERIE...PRIMARILY CHAUTAUQUA...EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE...AND NORTHWEST
CATTARAUGUS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST WYOMING COUNTIES.

MEDIA - IF THERE ARE ROAD CLOSURES...STRANDED TRAVELERS WILL BE IN
DANGER OF FROSTBITE OR HYPOTHERMIA IF THEY LEAVE THEIR VEHICLES
MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE URGE TRAVELERS TO STAY PUT...TAKE EXTRA
CLOTHING...BLANKETS...FOOD...AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SURVIVAL SUPPLIES.

FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AS ALWAYS...THIS IS A MORE TRICKY FORECAST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION AT SOME
POINT...POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY...MIGRATING
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EASTWARD AND SLOWING OVER MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY. WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR MONROE TO
NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
NIAGARA AND ORLEANS...LEAVING LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN
ERIE GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...FOR NOW...WITH LOWEST
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS FOR BUFFALO EAST TO NORTHERN LIVINGSTON
COUNTY. OSWEGO IS ALREADY UNDER A WARNING...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED AS THE BAND MOVES OFF THE TUG HILL AND FOCUSES SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE.

MORE SPECIFICALLY THE ONGOING MAIN LAKE BAND OVER THE TUG HILL EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION FOR SNOW TOTALS MAXING OUT OVER OSWEGO COUNTY AND NEARBY
TUG HILL. CURRENTLY EXPECT 6-12 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 4-8 FROM
MOST OF MONROE TO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND LESS ELSEWHERE. BLOWING SNOW
MAY STILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE GRIDDED OUTPUT AT THIS TIME.

THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER WAYNE TO OSWEGO TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 6+ INCHES THERE...WITH 3-6 INCHES OVER
MONROE...ONTARIO...AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE NEARING -20-25F EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...POSSIBLY
COLDER IF ANY CLEARING IS REALIZED. CURRENT FORECASTS PLACE THIS
AREA WELL WITHIN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL SAVE THAT
FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES AND HANDLE THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF
WIND AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW FIRST.

AREAWIDE...SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY BY TUESDAY...AND HIGH SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE MAKE SOME HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT LOCALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE ABOVE FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE NEAR-TERM AND SHORT TERM
SECTIONS SHOULD BE REASONABLE ESTIMATES. STORM TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY ARE NOT CONSERVATIVE...WITH POINT-BASED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2+ FEET SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER 3 FEET
CENTERED ON THE TUG HILL. THESE AMOUNTS MATCH WITH HISTORICALLY BIG
LAKE EFFECT EVENTS RESULTING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL
FORECASTS AND HPC. THE MODELS DO HAVE LOWER OMEGA THAN TYPICAL FOR
THESE EVENTS AND HENCE LOWER QPF. WHILE NOT PUSHING THE ENVELOPE
TOO MUCH...WE ARE FORECASTING ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE. PUBLICLY
AVAILABLE HPC OUTPUT MAY BE TOO COARSE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT NATURE OF
THE UPCOMING EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ARCTIC AIR
AND AND INVERSION NEARING 2500FT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EASILY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY QUITE
A BIT COLDER IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK. TEMPS
AGAIN SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
ITS PREDECESSOR. HOWEVER...IT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
RE-ENERGIZE SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH GENERAL
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MOVING IN ELSEWHERE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE.

[brunota2003]

Just started snowing about an hour ago...got my webcam set up and doing a timelapse. I also have it set to save each image individually. When it started snowing, there was no snow on the ground...but by the time I set the camera up, there was already a light dusting down.

[Crostorm]

lake-effect snow (marquette michigan) live webcam

http://www.acs.nmu.edu/lrc-live.asx

[vbhoutex]

lake-effect snow (marquette michigan) live webcam

[brunota2003]

Well, the band shifted down to our south (as forecast) and we didn't get much snow here...sure is windy though!

[psyclone]

the lake effect bands (so far) lack the organization needed for extreme snow rates. i would have expected a more organized band off of both erie and ontario. I've experienced snow rates of 6" per hour off lake erie when i lived up north. that is a sight to behold. perhaps things will get better later tonight.

[brunota2003]

Yeah...a trough is passing through and the shear from it really disrupted the bands on both lakes.

[brunota2003]

Well, the last LES event ended a couple days ago...the snow has since melted off here at Fort Drum, there isn't even snow in the grass! This feels more like October or November than January! This LES event was no where near as bad as initially thought/forecast...the band had issues getting together because of higher than forecast shear, so instead of one strong band, there were multiple weaker bands. There were reports of greater than 19 inches of snow in some spots, though...waiting for the write up to be released by NWS Buffalo. Guessing this one will probably be a 3 star event...mainly due to causing issues at the end of a holiday weekend.

We did have our first negative low Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, it was -6F with a wind chill of up to -20F. Yesterday we had a high of 46! That is insane!

[brunota2003]

Still no snow on the ground, but I think today will be the last full day that occurs for a while (at least a week! ). We got a very complex system moving in tonight that will spark a pretty good synoptic event for us the next couple days, followed by another big LES event. Some of the forecasters are pretty excited about the potential the models are showing, mainly for the Thursday night/Friday time frame. We have a ruck march tomorrow morning, so I'm *hoping* we get more than they are predicting and it gets canceled.

Tonight: Freezing rain and sleet, mainly after 3am. Low around 26. East wind between 9 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Thursday: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then rain and sleet likely between noon and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. High near 37. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain and snow likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday: Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all snow after noon. High near 34. Breezy, with a east wind 10 to 13 mph becoming west between 20 and 23 mph. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Snow. Low around 12. West wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday: Snow showers before noon, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1pm. High near 14. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2.

M.L.King Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 26.

Note: I am east of Lake Ontario, just to the NE of Watertown.

NWS Buffalo AFD follows:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
409 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SEND RAIN...AND A WINTRY MIX FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATER
TOMORROW AS THE RAIN AND WINTERY MIX PUSHES NORTHWARD BEFORE
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL...BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED DOWNWIND OF BOTH OF THE
LAKES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 19Z A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SYSTEM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INTERACTS
WITH A SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM.

AT THE SFC A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR KY/IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND NEAR THE QUEBEC/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BORDER. AN INVERTED TROUGH ON THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WAS POKING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WHERE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
HELD BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET...A DIGGING TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS.

A LOOK AT REGIONAL RADARS AND SFC OBS AT 19Z SHOW A SWATH OF RAIN
REACHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OH AND PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 AT 19Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE
DISPLAYS A LINGERING MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION THIS
MID AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURE WISE AT 19Z MANY AREAS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE UNDER A LINGERING DECK OF CLOUDS TEMPERATURES IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REMAIN IN THE 20S...WHILE 30S ARE FOUND
FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE TUG HILL.

FOR THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION INITIALLY AS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A 50 KNOT 900 HPA
JET...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDES LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
DEEPEN MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR +2SD
OVERNIGHT WILL FUEL THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALOFT
THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AT 250 HPA WILL LIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT BASIN QPF AVERAGES TO BE AROUND 0.40
TO 0.75 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS TOWARDS THE
EAST...CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE LLJ.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON... AND A
LOOK AT AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR AT 18Z JUST ABOVE
850 HPA. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...COOLING
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER WETBULB
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN JUST ABOVE ZERO ALLOWING
FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY. HOWEVER A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN THIS EVENING
GENERALLY TOWARDS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...AND WILL INCLUDE JUST A CHC FOR WET
SNOWFLAKES THIS EVENING WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER KENTUCKY WILL DEEPEN AND BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN AS DEEP OR DEEPER THAN THE
COASTAL SFC LOW THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. WITH THE DEEPER LOW TO OUR WEST...WARM
AIR ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD. WITH THE PRIMARY SFC LOW REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH 12Z...AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND
CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL STILL BE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST OVER QUEBEC THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LOSE ITS
NORTHWARD PUSH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS COLDER AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS ENTRENCHED. HERE FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES NORTHWARD A WINTRY MIX WILL BE OF CONCERN.

A LOOK AT SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARMER PROFILE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHICH
WILL DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW...THOUGH WITH SFC TEMPERATURES
STILL REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL STILL BE OF CONCERN. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SNOW/SLEET
COMBINATION...WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...THOUGH BEGIN THE ADVISORY AT 10PM...ABOUT THE TIME WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

WITH THE 45 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AT 2K-3K FEET SOME MIXING OF
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BRUSH PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BRISTOL HILLS AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE WILL HAVE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE PEAKS FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD AS THE LLJ PASSES. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS
GUSTY UNDER THE WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD ALOFT.

TOMORROW AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE PRIMARY LOW WILL PUSH NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR SURGE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WILL DROP POPS BACK TO CHC/SLIGHT CHC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND THROUGH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE THIS REGION WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.

FOR TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND BOTTOM OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE
ONSET OF RAIN AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TO THE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES. FROM THERE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE COOLING...AND
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE OCCLUDED
BOUNDARY NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. DO NOT EXPECT
THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SCOUR OUT OF THE VALLEYS TILL MIDDAY
TOMORROW...WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S SOUTH OF THE OCCLUDED
BOUNDARY AND 30S NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE UNFOLDING DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS
INTERCEPTED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE RESULT BEING A DOUBLE
SURFACE LOW STRUCTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOMINANT LOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SECONDARY WEAKER LOW RESIDES OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
OCCLUSION WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HAVE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGIN OF
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLONE
INTENSIFICATION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL CORRESPOND
WITH INCREASE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE AND INCREASING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INFLOW...WHICH SHOULD POINT TO THE EXPANSION OF SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN SECTION ALONG THE INTENSIFYING
BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDERNEATH THE DEEPENING COUPLED JET CIRCULATION
ALOFT. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A TROWAL FEATURE
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE.
ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL MAKING THE
PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS FRIDAY RATHER DIFFICULT.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY TO HOW THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT PLACING RELATIVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WE ARE LIKELY
LOOKING AT A GENERAL ACCUMULATING SNOW SEVERAL INCHES...ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IF LAKE ENHANCEMENT CAN GET GOING EARLY ENOUGH.

STARTING LATE FRIDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS
THE FLOW VEERS TO WEST...THEN TO WEST NORTHWEST AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS CELSIUS. PLENTY OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING IMPRESSIVE DEPTH
OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION TO INTERSECT OMEGA
MAXIMUM. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE SNOWS IN
THE TRADITIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN. STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY HAMPER THE ORGANIZED OF PROLONGED
LAKE BANDS...BUT THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.
LAKE EFFECT SETUP STILL FAR ENOUGH IN ADVANCE TO KEEP HEADLINES OUT
OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF SUSTAIN
WINDS OVER 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS WHICH MAY PROMPT
HEADLINES IN LATER FORECASTS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AIR MASS STILL LOOKS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS CELSIUS TO
MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. SOME SUGGESTION THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING...
THEREFORE THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE SNOWS IS IN QUESTION AT THIS
POINT. LAKE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT DOWN COMPLETELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS BROAD RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS
UP BEHIND IT AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ELONGATED COLD FRONT.
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SNOW IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...
WITH THE ADDED LAKE COMPONENT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS BACK ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. AIR MASS LOOKS COLD ENOUGH WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE
MOISTURE TO REGENERATE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

[brunota2003]

Well, my report to the NWS made it onto the spotter reports, apparently...good to know their facebook page works! (which I already knew)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
ICE OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
ALEXANDRIA BAY 0.50 1100 AM 1/12 COAST GUARD
FORT DRUM 0.25 600 AM 1/12 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 S THERESA 0.12 800 AM 1/12 COCORAHS

$$

DK

[brunota2003]

Well, the rain changed over to heavy snow around 6:45 this morning...two flags raised by the NWS, wind advisory and winter storm warning.

Also, looks like the LES event won't be that impressive (at least off of Lake Ontario), shear is supposed to increase and a limited supply of moisture.

Forecast:

This Afternoon: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 28. Breezy, with a west wind between 22 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow showers and areas of blowing snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely between 11pm and 1am, then scattered snow showers after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind between 9 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

WSW:

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN
948 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES TODAY AND 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT.
STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE AROUND 30 TODAY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE
TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TODAY AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIVING SNOW WILL
PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 81
CORRIDOR.

Special Weather Statement just issued:

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1210 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS...

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, A GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND 15
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION IS CREATING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR
ZERO AT TIMES.

THERE IS STILL AN ICY GLAZE UNDER THE SNOW COVERED ROADS CREATING
SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS. WITH THE FALLING SNOW IN ADDITION TO
THE BLOWING SNOW AND ICY ROAD SURFACES...TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO BE DIFFICULT AND SLOW.

MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR
DESTINATION.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO.

[brunota2003]

Just took a series of measurements and got an average of about 6.2 inches of snow. The wind made it very difficult to measure, with some spots having only 4 inches and others 10 to 12+ inches.