cycloneye wrote:gpsnowman wrote:Man, I get back from 2 weeks in Mexico where it was cool and rainy the entire time and come back and see the El Nino might be delayed. Say it isn't so. I'm with iorange55, the dog days are here so that first cool front in September is going to feel sooooo nice. What does a delay discussed in previous posts mean for our fall and winter? Too early to tell? I need some cold.
Hi. The best person to explain in detailed way is Ntxw as he knows all the twists and turns of ENSO and other factors that are involved to determine how the 2012-2013 Winter in Texas will be like. I only can tell you that at some point in the next few weeks El Nino will be officially declared,but how strong it will be is still not known and depending on how strong it will be the Winter will behave in that state and that is where I leave it to him to explain the rest.
I would concur with cycloneye is correct in that our own Ntxw has become quite the educated amateur on all things ENSO. Check out Storm 2K's ENSO thread for more details.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=2320
I will chime in though and say that we have to pay attention to a lot more than simply the status of ENSO. Whether or not we have high latitude blocking during the fall/winter will go a long way toward how warm/cold things end up. There are also several other signals to watch: PDO, AAO, AO, and the NAO.