Texas Winter 2012-2013

[weatherdude1108]

"Oh the weather outside is frightful
But the fire is so delightful
And since we've no place to go
Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!"

Hard to think about right now when they are forecasting 102 degrees through Friday in Austin. But it cools me off to think about it in any case!

[Ntxw]

There is a powerful Aleutian/Bering storm hitting near Anchorage with several more to swing through this month. It is partially responsible for changing the 5h pattern that will drive down the cold front this weekend. Hopefully this is a sign that lows over this region will continue it's barrage through winter. The pattern on the maps are indicative of cold outbreaks *if this were winter * but it's Sept.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... orld/71969

[Ptarmigan]

Alright now that it's September it's time to put out my thoughts and forecast for winter(Sorry Porta I'm taking a jump before you )

ENSO
Current values indicate weak El Nino may have taken hold. After looking at analog years with Nino's after Nina or Neutral couplet I believe our best fit situation is a low end moderate El Nino. Peaking around 1.0c - 1.3c anywhere from October to December is my pick.

It is also evident that it will be Central Based Nino in regions 3.4 defined by 120-170W.

Analog Years for DJF (Meteorological winter)
Best Fit: 1976-1977, 2002-2003

Temps for those two seasons
http://i46.tinypic.com/zxmxvo.png[/img][img]http://i46.tinypic.com/28l9xcn.png

Honorable Mentions - These two seasons were El Ninos after Ninas but were higher end moderate. Also had a lot of blocking.

2009-2010
1957-1958

http://i45.tinypic.com/wmh40g.png

Summary
So all in all what does this mean? It's likely to be a colder than average winter for Texas and surrounding states. Wettest areas will be the southern half of the state. The two best fit analogs suggest December will be the fun month with a quiet period in January. February could be average with a cold shot. Overall winter in terms of precip normal to slightly above normal statewide, wettest to the south less wet to the north (this is not snowfall just overall precip, colder temps can have above snow even with less precip).

One big caveat is blocking. 1957-1958, 2009-2010 was pretty much wall to wall cold with a pronounced -AO and -NAO. If these two features exists this year January and February could be very cold as well. Unfortunately they are hard to predict this time of year and we will know probably Oct or Nov. So right now it's best to stick with the more conservative solution.

Last season the analog years screamed warm and snowless (1975-1976, 2001-2002, 2008-2009), but being a cold monger I disregarded it. This year the analogs are much friendlier.

Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow
_____________________________________

Disclaimer: I am not responsible for any disappointments due to lack of delivery. I am just a wing of the PWC forecast center so any questions or concerns please direct them toward the chief forecaster. All forecasts are final, not valid in Austin or Wxman57's house (omega blocks).

That is my thinking too.

[Portastorm]

The Grey Goose-swilling meteorologists at the Portastorm Weather Center continue to conduct research and write their 2012-13 Texas Winter Forecast. The official release date will be Sunday, September 16th.

Here is a little teaser:

The PWC is looking once, looking twice
for prospects of Texas snow and ice
The early signs are looking good
For a real winter in Wxman57's 'hood.

[Terri]

Well, I am a craft beer swilling fellow Texan that you are KILLING with all this talk of ice and snow.... BRING-IT-ON!!!

[cycloneye]

Those in Texas will be happy to see this graphic valid from September 20-26. Will this early cooldown signal a very cold winter for the state?

[wxman57]

... or not.

It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...

[Ntxw]

It will last throughout the rest of this month Cycloneye and early Oct! Sept/October patterns can give hints to how the winter storm tracks/cold pool will behave.

Usually the cool pattern is transient at this time but not the case this go around.

[Tireman4]

... or not.

It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...

Purchase the snow tires for your bike now sir. It is, as they say, on!!!!!

[Janie2006]

Okay, but that map is based on the GFS at a considerable distance in time from now.....it's almost in Kool-Aid land. A full latitude trough. The 500 mb map shows the 5400 thickness line dropping into northen/central Missouri! I'll grant that it's shown that particular solution for a couple of runs now, but I'm not on board with this yet. OTOH, could be a sign of things to come. I'd love this to be true, but I'm not biting on it at the moment.

[Terri]

... or not.

It's a sad time of year for us heat lovers. Days are getting shorter, the jet stream is dipping south. I stop posting in "Talkin' Tropics" and look for the "Texas Winter" thread. Nothing to look forward to for the next 5 months but gloomy cold weather. Soon I'll be driving to work before sunrise and coming home at sunset. I miss summer already...

I am so sorry wx57... I used to live near Houston in Port Arthur...then moved to the Hill Country just to get away from the overwhelming humidity. While we still have humidity - at least I don't sweat between my fingers!!! If you want to ride a bike in blow dryer like heat, I invite you to try Loop 360 during mid August in Austin. After that, paramedical help may be required! For me, fall is a welcome respite from living in a "running clothes dryer set on high!" Don't fret! The world will continue to turn and summer will return! p.s. - the only thing I miss is the food - hard for a true blue Cajun to eat what passes for a seafood restaurant here. Bring on the

[amawea]

They are forecasting lows in the 40's for north Arkansas next Tuesday night so maybe Texas will get a little cool down and lower humidity. I have 3 daughters that live down there and they want snow thi swinter big time.
I hope Texas and Arkansas get a good snowy winter.

[iorange55]

Huffingtonpost article on this upcoming winter...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html?ncid=webmail3

Nothing really "new" but it's an interesting read, I suppose.

[AggieSpirit]

Huffingtonpost article on this upcoming winter...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/arctic-ice-melt-extreme-weather_n_1878833.html?ncid=webmail3

Nothing really "new" but it's an interesting read, I suppose.

Awesome. If it is colder and snowier, AGW believers cite AGW. If it's hotter or there are floods or droughts, AGW believers cite AGW.

[Comanche]

Is this going to be our prevailing winter pattern? Nice -NAO look...

[Janie2006]

^^ That's the kind of pattern cold weather lovers want to see. That colder air has no place to go *but* south, so one could safely predict a series of cold fronts making their way into the CONUS, especially through the Midwest and into the South....basically the eastern part of the country. The negative NAO doing its job...look at those height anomalies over central and southern Greenland.

Maybe we'll end up with some record-breaking cool air early in the Fall season. Hrmmmmm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Bastardi also talked about in a tweet this morning saying whenever there is a major Typhoo in the Pacific, translates to a trough in the East about 10 days out.

[Ntxw]

Old farmer's Almanac has their predictions out, always entertaining

They're using good ole Nino forecasting

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately, time management challenges have thrown a "wrench into the works" with the Portastorm Weather Center's 2012-13 winter forecast for Texas. And no, rumors regarding rampant Grey Goose partying as the cause for the delay are untrue ... no matter what Tireman tells you!

We hope to have it finished and released by September 23rd. I can tell you that wxman57 probably won't like our forecast.

[cycloneye]

Old farmer's Almanac has their predictions out, always entertaining

They're using good ole Nino forecasting

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange

Here is the whole graphic from them that all will like if you believe this. I know that wxman57 will not agree.