Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

Man, I get back from 2 weeks in Mexico where it was cool and rainy the entire time and come back and see the El Nino might be delayed. Say it isn't so. I'm with iorange55, the dog days are here so that first cool front in September is going to feel sooooo nice. What does a delay discussed in previous posts mean for our fall and winter? Too early to tell? I need some cold.

Hi. The best person to explain in detailed way is Ntxw as he knows all the twists and turns of ENSO and other factors that are involved to determine how the 2012-2013 Winter in Texas will be like. I only can tell you that at some point in the next few weeks El Nino will be officially declared,but how strong it will be is still not known and depending on how strong it will be the Winter will behave in that state and that is where I leave it to him to explain the rest.

I would concur with cycloneye is correct in that our own Ntxw has become quite the educated amateur on all things ENSO. Check out Storm 2K's ENSO thread for more details.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=2320

I will chime in though and say that we have to pay attention to a lot more than simply the status of ENSO. Whether or not we have high latitude blocking during the fall/winter will go a long way toward how warm/cold things end up. There are also several other signals to watch: PDO, AAO, AO, and the NAO.

[Ntxw]

Such generous words guys, just learning as we trek along my first year truly tracking ENSO. It's too early to panic about the ups and downs of oncoming nino. Let it play out till Sept and we will have a better picture of what we will get (as well as other atmospheric factors mentioned by Portastorm).

When the Nino does arrive to stay we can be certain the +PNA (warm west, cold east of divide) will appear frequently in the fall and winter. Will the AO and/or NAO work in tandem to provide the cold air consistently? Maybe someone with detailed information on how blocky Nino winters are can provide better insight.

[Rgv20]

CFSv2 still has El Nino Peaking right around December and according to the CFSv2 what a wet month this coming December would be for most of Texas!

[Portastorm]

Should that verify and we can get a little high latitude blocking in December ... ka-ching!!

[vbhoutex]

Should that verify and we can get a little high latitude blocking in December ... ka-ching!!

KA-CHING is such a good sound!! That post gave me some hope.

[iorange55]

It's August, folks! One last month of extreme heat, and then we slowly start to cool off in September!

The corner has been turned

[Tireman4]

Can you see the light at the end of the tunnel Iorange55?

[gboudx]

Sitting in the left-center seats at the Rangers game last night was brutal until about 7:45.

[somethingfunny]

Sitting in the left-center seats at the Rangers game last night was brutal until about 7:45.

You won't catch any foul balls, but it's worth it grabbing seats underneath the deck. Or in right field.

[Ntxw]

Look what's happening in the tropical pacific. From WPAC to Hawaii something beautiful is happening...*cheers echo in the distance* STJ! STJ!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.shtml

[Portastorm]

Look what's happening in the tropical pacific. From WPAC to Hawaii something beautiful is happening...*cheers echo in the distance* STJ! STJ!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.shtml

I love me some Pineapple Express!

[vbhoutex]

Look what's happening in the tropical pacific. From WPAC to Hawaii something beautiful is happening...*cheers echo in the distance* STJ! STJ!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.shtml

I love me some Pineapple Express!

[Tireman4]

Winter Weather...Winter Weather...Lots of moisture...mixed with cold air....

[weatherdude1108]

Look what's happening in the tropical pacific. From WPAC to Hawaii something beautiful is happening...*cheers echo in the distance* STJ! STJ!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.shtml

I love me some Pineapple Express!

Forgive my ignorance. I'm trying to clue in on what is happening.

[Tireman4]

What it means is ( this is layman's terms, so forgive my non technical side) that when you have winter, you have shots of cold air that come down to Texas. Well for us to have snow, ice or frozen precipitation, we need overriding moisture on top of the cold air. Hence, the Pineapple Express provides that fuel for the fire, as it were. Any pro or amateur mets can correct me if I have any of this wrong.



Pineapple Express is a non-technical term for a meteorological phenomenon characterized by a strong and persistent flow of atmospheric moisture and associated heavy precipitation from the waters adjacent to the Hawaiian Islands and extending to any location along the Pacific coast of North America. A Pineapple Express is an example of an atmospheric river, which is a more general term for such narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport at mid-latitudes around the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pineapple_Express

[Portastorm]

Ding! Ding! Ding! ... Someone give this man a cigar.

[gpsnowman]

Ok. So we are seeing a Pineapple Express now. Do these type patterns in the Pacific last awhile? Meaning it is August and can we look forward to this on into the winter? If I remember we North Texans had this during winter 09-10.

[Portastorm]

Ok. So we are seeing a Pineapple Express now. Do these type patterns in the Pacific last awhile? Meaning it is August and can we look forward to this on into the winter? If I remember we North Texans had this during winter 09-10.

I think what we're seeing is the beginning stages of a potential flow of moisture into the US this coming winter. It's all predicated on the developing El Nino. Of course, not all El Nino's are created equal and there will be other atmospheric markers/signals which will affect things along with the actual strength of the developing Nino. But clearly, as evidenced from what Ntxw linked us to, things are starting to happen out in the Pacific.

[Ntxw]

Great post Portastorm! He is very correct that things certainly change between now and then. But the ignition has been set in the WPAC and with warm waters thanks to El Nino it will support progression of the moisture plume. Of course it doesn't happen overnight, it will be a gradual feed that should reach us by September or October (I vote Sept). Once it gets going it will probably persist at various states throughout winter.

[Tireman4]

Ok, that being said....when do you think the first front will cool us down to what Fall levels? I am still thinking of going with climo and saying September 25....