Texas Winter 2012-2013

[aggiecutter]

JB thinks the eastern half of the country will be below normal the first half of October:
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... to/1/large

[Palmer divide shadow]

Big front for this time of year headed down the rockies this week.will bring widespread 30's and 40's for high This temps saturday.I think this is the front that kicks us all into fall.

[Terri]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

Gosh, boy have I got the acorns too! Last year we supplemented the whitetail because they were dying (and I hate those darned things as far as my my small area of landscaping goes). But supplementing was better than dragging dead young deer off the property. This year we have acorns a-plenty! AND they aren't eating my plants. I have seen quite a few migratory birds early myself.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

Gosh, boy have I got the acorns too! Last year we supplemented the whitetail because they were dying (and I hate those darned things as far as my my small area of landscaping goes). But supplementing was better than dragging dead young deer off the property. This year we have acorns a-plenty! AND they aren't eating my plants. I have seen quite a few migratory birds early myself.

Noticed the birds as well. Geese have been here for a month, typically not here till mid Oct.

[Agua]

Noticed the birds as well. Geese have been here for a month, typically not here till mid Oct.

We had quite a few mallard & pintail at our camp in the Mississippi Delta during teal season. You'll see a few shovelers during september teal season, but big ducks don't generally start showing up until mid-late october.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So my guess is the front arrives between 4-5 pm on Saturday. Should make for great football weather!

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, what do you see in this CPC October update that may be important about the winter for Texas?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what do you see in this CPC October update that may be important about the winter for Texas?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

It looks like they will go with warm neutral or weak Nino (I still disagree with it somewhat). But lets assume they are correct this would likely drop 2002-2003 to honorable mention as a strong analog and make 1976-1977 king. 1951-1952 is a growing possible analog as well from an enso standpoint.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, what do you see in this CPC October update that may be important about the winter for Texas?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

It looks like they will go with warm neutral or weak Nino (I still disagree with it somewhat). But lets assume they are correct this would likely drop 2002-2003 to honorable mention as a strong analog and make 1976-1977 king. 1951-1952 is a growing possible analog as well from an enso standpoint.

For those who dont remember or not live in Texas and visit this thread,how were those Winters in the analogs?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntxw, what do you see in this CPC October update that may be important about the winter for Texas?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

It looks like they will go with warm neutral or weak Nino (I still disagree with it somewhat). But lets assume they are correct this would likely drop 2002-2003 to honorable mention as a strong analog and make 1976-1977 king. 1951-1952 is a growing possible analog as well from an enso standpoint.

For those who dont remember or not live in Texas and visit this thread,how were those Winters in the analogs?

My dad remembers a big snowstorm in his South Texas home town near Corpus Christi in 1977. Ive seen pics of the event and it was much more than a dusting. More like 4-5 inches of snow

[Ntxw]

For those who dont remember or not live in Texas and visit this thread,how were those Winters in the analogs?

Glad you asked .

1976-1977 Was a very cold winter not just for Texas but the entire country east of the divide. DFW dipped into the teens many times between December and February. November featured an abnormally early snowfall of 5 inches mid month. For the season the snowfall was over 10 inches. Further east this was also one of the coldest/snowiest for Atlanta as well if not the coldest. The east coast had the infamous blizzard of 1977 in Jan, there were quite a few nor'easters. Snow was observed in Miami, even the Bahamas saw some snow mixed with rain. So it was not just Texas. This was a Nino winter that peaked around 0.7c and had a lot of blocking perhaps in the same play as 2009 and 1951. 1976 to 1978 period was the two coldest winter couplets probably since the 1800s both in weak Ninos.

Signs of that winter began in October when Alaska and western Canada began seeing persistent blocking (-EPO). Very early cold shots started coming and just kept going through winter.

[cycloneye]

For those who dont remember or not live in Texas and visit this thread,how were those Winters in the analogs?

Glad you asked .

1976-1977 Was a very cold winter not just for Texas but the entire country east of the divide. DFW dipped into the teens many times between December and February. November featured an abnormally early snowfall of 5 inches mid month. For the season the snowfall was over 10 inches. Further east this was also one of the coldest/snowiest for Atlanta as well if not the coldest. The east coast had the infamous blizzard of 1977 in Jan, there were quite a few nor'easters. Snow was observed in Miami. So it was not just Texas. This was a Nino winter that peaked around 0.7c and had a lot of blocking perhaps in the same play as 2009 and 1951. 1976 to 1978 period was the two coldest winter couplets probably since the 1800s both in weak Ninos.

In other words,anywhere you look to those analogs, that was the outcome and by the look of things,all of you in the state will be happy with the forecast for the upcomming winter. Well,maybe except one

[Ntxw]

In other words,anywhere you look to those analogs, that was the outcome and by the look of things,all of you in the state will be happy with the forecast for the upcomming winter. Well,maybe except one

Yes, I cannot find a warm reasonable analog for Wxman57 . However, he still does have the weather channel's forecast on his side, but even it's "warmer" October look is about to go down the tubes with the events to come this weekend and beyond

...unless La Nina returns for a third winter in a row magically somehow *Shivers* but given his warm nature I doubt he will be able to cool the Pacific

[Tireman4]

He (Wxman 57) might want to invest in snow tires for his bike this winter....

[wxman57]

Yes, I cannot find a warm reasonable analog for Wxman57 . However, he still does have the weather channel's forecast on his side, but even it's "warmer" October look is about to go down the tubes with the events to come this weekend and beyond

...unless La Nina returns for a third winter in a row magically somehow *Shivers* but given his warm nature I doubt he will be able to cool the Pacific

The Weather Channel and La Nina are my friends!

However, signals are pointing to a colder winter than last year's down here in Texas. I don't think there will be an El Nino this winter, though. Should be neutral, as it was through the hurricane season (even though SSTs in Nino 3.4 reached above +0.5C for a while).

Oh, and I ride a mountain bike in the city, so it can handle any terrain.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So my guess is the front arrives between 4-5 pm on Saturday. Should make for great football weather!

Shoulda known better than to bring one of these fronts in on the late end of the models. This thing will be here before sunrise Saturday morning!

[Portastorm]

So my guess is the front arrives between 4-5 pm on Saturday. Should make for great football weather!

Shoulda known better than to bring one of these fronts in on the late end of the models. This thing will be here before sunrise Saturday morning!

Yes, you shoulda!

If I had a buck for every time I've seen busted forecasts by forecasters (public sector or private) who rely strictly on computer models to figure out cold frontal passages in Texas ... well, the steak dinners would be on me!

Computer models still cannot handle shallower cold airmasses, especially when they're coming down the leeside of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains and Texas.

[vbhoutex]

So my guess is the front arrives between 4-5 pm on Saturday. Should make for great football weather!

Shoulda known better than to bring one of these fronts in on the late end of the models. This thing will be here before sunrise Saturday morning!

Yes, you shoulda!

If I had a buck for every time I've seen busted forecasts by forecasters (public sector or private) who rely strictly on computer models to figure out cold frontal passages in Texas ... well, the steak dinners would be on me!

Computer models still cannot handle shallower cold airmasses, especially when they're coming down the leeside of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains and Texas.

And that is what makes forecasting the Winter in Texas so much "fun". It truly is a big challenge to really nail Winter forecasts in Texas, especially the closer you get to the coast. Even with our 90's today I am still seeing our "step down" both in the actual weather and the clues. Expecting this to be the last hurrah for 90's. Pattern change coming up should cool us significantly in about 10 days plus or minus.

[Tireman4]

If I had a buck for every time I've seen busted forecasts by forecasters (public sector or private) who rely strictly on computer models to figure out cold frontal passages in Texas ... well, the steak dinners would be on me!

Computer models still cannot handle shallower cold airmasses, especially when they're coming down the leeside of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains and Texas.[/quote]

And that is what makes forecasting the Winter in Texas so much "fun". It truly is a big challenge to really nail Winter forecasts in Texas, especially the closer you get to the coast. Even with our 90's today I am still seeing our "step down" both in the actual weather and the clues. Expecting this to be the last hurrah for 90's. Pattern change coming up should cool us significantly in about 10 days plus or minus.[/quote]


I agree, but did you see the temperatures for next week....88 again for the high. Sigh....

[Ntxw]

I agree, but did you see the temperatures for next week....88 again for the high. Sigh....

Yes, that is quite warm for October. But the reason it's pumped up that way is because something may be lurking off California

This cold front is not as big a change for southern half of Texas this weekend but I'm hoping it's better than forecasted for you guys, hang in there!