Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Ok now back to more optimism! I heard JB talk a lot about JAMSTEC. So I thought hey why not look into it. Behold they have a great long range website. And this is what it showed for the upcoming winter.



Nice isn't it? Ok so yeah I thought to myself it could be one of those crazy models that's always predicting cold. Well it wasn't! I looked at it's forecast for the past 3 seasons from Sept/Oct for the DJF and voila, it was very reasonable! It had the warm winter for the eastern US last year. It was a bit too warm for 2010-2011 but the idea was not too terribly bad, probably too hung up on enso climo though.

[JackCruz]

Houston needs a good snow storm this winter...pleasssssssssssseeeeeeeee or at least some record breaking low temps...I would like to see some teens like few years back...it got down to 18 in Cypress, TX!!! Lovvvvvvve it

[Ntxw]

-EPO is hinting it's head again in the longer range on various models. Perhaps an early freeze for the high plains of west Texas? This -EPO pattern seems to be the configure of choice thus far. But we are talking in the very long range so food for thought.

[Portastorm]

-EPO is hinting it's head again in the longer range on various models. Perhaps an early freeze for the high plains of west Texas? This -EPO pattern seems to be the configure of choice thus far. But we are talking in the very long range so food for thought.

Yeah, I saw a tweet from JB today that indicated that one of the CMC ensemble members showed temps 30 degrees (F) below normal for west Texas in two weeks. Both the GFS and Euro have hinted at this for a few days but without consistency. Will be interesting to watch how/if it unfolds.

[Ntxw]

Looks like something PWC mets drew up.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Cross polar flow. Saw that a few days ago and posted about it. That looks like it would nail west Texas huh?

[Ntxw]

Cross polar flow. Saw that a few days ago and posted about it. That looks like it would nail west Texas huh?

Yeah, Texas and the central conus in general. It's just west Texas is better prone to freezes in October due to elevation etc. GFS shows it too and has the 0c line quite south into the central plains states. It would also feature a southern stream storm, wouldn't be too crazy if it's the first big storm of the fall season.

[Ntxw]

Got a hold of this just in time as I got intelligence that wxman57 was about to stash it and make alterations.





This one frame of this one run probably means nothing, but it's just one of the long clues the models have been trying to give us about pending air masses coming to a town near you!

[vbhoutex]

Got a hold of this just in time as I got intelligence that wxman57 was about to stash it and make alterations.

http://i45.tinypic.com/1j67ar.gif



This one frame of this one run probably means nothing, but it's just one of the long clues the models have been trying to give us about pending air masses coming to a town near you!

I like the "trend". Obviously way to early to call it for sure as a cold snowy winter, but the clues continue to be there.

[somethingfunny]

I just like that heavy precipitation out ahead of the front in North Texas.

[Comanche]

Anyone waiting to hear my forecast for the Texas winter?

......and still waiting......(put the bike down, step away and GET TO WORK)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

55F this morning in SL. Feels great this morning!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It might happen for Portastorm this year. It just might......




I have a good feeling we'll have a cool to cold winter this year. I don't know if it's related, but back in August during the 100 degree evenings we had late into the month. I noticed flocks of geese flying south much earlier than usuall.

[Portastorm]

Well, well, well ... look who woke up?!

CC, I think we may have to educate a few newer folks here about the whole Lucy and Charlie Brown thing. I have a feeling that you're right though and I'll have my chances.

[vbhoutex]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

[Tireman4]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

Here we go....Stepping down, as Srain would say. I think this winter will be very very interesting....

[vbhoutex]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

Here we go....Stepping down, as Srain would say. I think this winter will be very very interesting....

I have to agree with the stepping down. If you add in even the hot temps from a week ago, that was even a step down from the previous weeks, so it appears to me we have a slow trend downward. Come on cool Fall and cold wet Winter.

[Portastorm]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

Accuweather's website actually had a story on this subject just a few days ago.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/acorn-production-hindcast-not/80849

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

Ive noticed the EXACT same thing. Been at this house for 5 years and never do i remember the acorns constantly falling off the tree and hearing the 'thud' on the roof. Hear it maybe every 20 minutes. What does this entail for the weather?

[Tireman4]

I don't know if this has anything to do with Winter, but we have an over the top acorn crop this year. I have never seen this many acorns coming out of the tree ever and we have been in this house 25 years. It might be a bounce back due to the drought last year, but ??? The acorns are so thick on the ground our feet don't touch the ground and I have swept them a couple of times.

Ive noticed the EXACT same thing. Been at this house for 5 years and never do i remember the acorns constantly falling off the tree and hearing the 'thud' on the roof. Hear it maybe every 20 minutes. What does this entail for the weather?

A horde of squirrels...LOL...