2012/2013 Denver Winter weather!

[VoodooCadillac]

Cheyenne forecast discussion:

THIRD SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE. MODELS
INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPING FLOW SETTING
UP AS THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NAM SHOWING A WIDESPREAD 6 TO
8 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD THINK
THAT AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. BEING THE FIRST WINTER EVENT OF THE YEAR...THOUGHT
IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO GET THE WORD OUT FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT
WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN FURTHER REFINE WITH
EITHER A WARNING OR AND ADVISORY AS THE EVENT DRAWS A LITTLE CLOSER.

[denversnowlover]

Got our first snowfall about a half inch here in Lonetree

[SCMedic]

Last nights HRRR was dead on with this little band. The HRRR was fantastically accurate with storm initiation locations during what little chase season we had this summer. Keep an eye out.

[denversnowlover]

wasnt expecting snow last night I am hoping that the moisture pushes farther west just a tad and up against the front range!

[SCMedic]

Wouldn't be surprised to see >5" by Friday PM for the frontrange. Models coming more inline with the bullish GFS.

[denversnowlover]

Grrr NAM came back dry! hoping for a good snow!!

[SCMedic]

Big time flip flop.

Have to see if the new GFS and others show the same closed circulation and concurrent dry slotting.

[denversnowlover]

Hope its a bloop! The GFS was pretty constant but we will see! What are you thinking?

[denversnowlover]

Well the 06 NAM looked sooo much better for us! But then it has flopped again! I am starting to think this maybe a storm that we will not really know what will happen until its 6 hours out haha

[SCMedic]

Banded precip and over running moisture is going to make this a tough one to pin down. Cold air north and warm sector nearby will also effect snow totals on the front range based on your location. I'm going with 2"-5" overall at this point, but it will be very location dependent. Storm should roll in by rush hour and turn to snow quickly overnight. AM commute might be slick, but warm roads initially may override that. Depends on snowfall rates. Convective snowfall can pile up quick. Another shot Thursday evening and then clearing and cold on Fri.

[Dencolo]

Well, I've already got my 1/2" that was expected on the SW side of town and it's really come done now in big flakes. Will be interesting to see what we wake up to in the morning. 00z GFS still looking good for about 5" tomorrow night so we'll see.

[SCMedic]

SREF much more bullish than the GFS for tomorrow night too.

[denversnowlover]

What are you all thinking on the totals for tomorrow night??

[SCMedic]

Location dependent, but thinking 4-6" wouldn't be out of the question. HIgher and lower in spots.

[denversnowlover]

awesome hope we do well in lonetree lol

[denversnowlover]

I have about 2-2.5 here in lonetree it seems!

[VoodooCadillac]

We picked up about 1" on grassy surfaces in downtown Fort Collins.

[denversnowlover]

NWS calling for 1-5. Cant access the SREF model, still thinking 4-6??

[SCMedic]

3-5" is a solid call. We'll see. I busted high last night so who knows. Weird storm setup so not the easiest to forecast.


NWS calling for 1-5 equates to them saying they have no idea.

[denversnowlover]

I havent been a fan of the NAM maybe its because it has been going from dry to wet, dry to wet!
Hoping for some decent accums! 3-5 i am happy with!