2012/2013 Denver Winter weather!

[denversnowlover]

Hoping for a snowy winter this year!

[denversnowlover]

Whats everyones thoughts of this coming fall and winter?? The summer was way to hot this year was not a fan!

[Ntxw]

NWS Denver/Boulder has a good page on statistics about winter.

Warm Pacific in modern times have brought more snow though I don't know locally since a lot of it is altitude driven This is the likely outcome this year

Average Snow: Cold Phase: 54.6
Average Snow: Warm Phase: 61.9
Average Snow: Neutral Phase: 56.3

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=ensosnow

Main snowfall page from them: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=wfosnow

[denversnowlover]

Thank you for the link and information Fingers crossed to a snowy winter here!

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm hoping for you guys too. Ill be next door at park city, utah for a ski trip in mid december. How might this upcoming el nino affect the season for them?

[denversnowlover]

El Nino winters in Northeastern Utah tend to be a little bit drier than normal due to the southerly track of storms. Its not typically extremely dry just a bit direr! Hope that helps!

[cheezyWXguy]

El Nino winters in Northeastern Utah tend to be a little bit drier than normal due to the southerly track of storms. Its not typically extremely dry just a bit direr! Hope that helps!

yeah it does, and I had a feeling that was the case. I guess Ill just have to see how the season unfolds.

[denversnowlover]

Went up to Black Hawk today shocked to see how many tree are completely yellow!!!

[denversnowlover]

Accumulating snow at the tunnel Woot!

[SCMedic]

How dare you steal my Denver Winter Weather Thread thunder!


GFS is colder and wetter than the others in regards to the Weds eve cold front. It has also verified the last two cold fronts over the last 2 weeks. There is a slim chance we see a flake or two.

Other than that, 2 weeks out looks promising for a deeper/colder airmass and snow.

[denversnowlover]

Hey SCMedic haha sorry I was way too excited after a LONG HOT DRY summer to start talking about some cold and snow

Look at it this way its still yours

I hope two weeks out continues to show cold and snow

[denversnowlover]

Oh hey forgot to ask you! What do you think about the warm waters over near Japan and such? I thinking that will favor a trough in our area this winter. So I am thinking a colder and snowier winter? I hope

[SCMedic]

Honestly, El Nino winters tend to have less frequent small storms for the front range but a few big storms. With the southern storm track we'll get those big southern CO lows that just pound Denver with extended upslope winds.

El Nino can be hit or miss as we saw last winter with La Nina in the mountains(typically NW flow that favors central mountain snow).

Long range models do favor colder weather for the fall. Winter isn't out yet.

[denversnowlover]

Awesome hopefully it will be a good winter! Looking forward to it!

[SCMedic]

While there is a small chance we see some flakes Weds night to talk about, the real story is Fri/Sat. Moisture is much better behind that front. The GEM, which is an outlier, paints a moderate snowfall for the front range corridor. We'll see what else comes inline as Thurs/Fri rolls around.

[denversnowlover]

I hope so!! Hey SCmedic where is a good spot to view models??

[Dencolo]

00z NAM coming in with some snow for Friday night for the metro area. Model watching season has begun!

[denversnowlover]

HERE IS THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION!! SOUNDS LIKE IT COULD BE FUN!

THOUGHTS???

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE FINE EARLY
AUTUMN DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
MANY LOW ELEVATION MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THAT
PENDING WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THE
WINTER-LIKE PUSH SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MEANS BUSINESS WITH THE AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. RATHER REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS THAT COVER THIS PERIOD REGARDING BOTH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE QUASIGEOSTROPHICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION IN THE
00Z-18Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SUGGESTS A RATHER HIGH LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEING THE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANYTHING.
MODEL QPFS DO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DIVERSITY WITH THE 12Z NAM AND
GEM THE HEAVY HITTERS SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO FINAL AMOUNTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...GOING DOWN THE FORECAST
FUNNEL WE WILL HAVE THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MESOSCALE INSTABILITIES INCLUDING CONDITIONAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE HEAVIER BANDED PRECIPITATION...
UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS ENHANCING THE
LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND GOOD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS FOR ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE
THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

[denversnowlover]

Winter Storm watch issued for Cheyenne! 4-8 Inches for them grrrr im jealous!

[SCMedic]

I still see 1" overnight Fri for the front range.