New England Winter 2012-2013

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW THEN SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY TRACKS EAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...THEN
BEGIN GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LLJ. GUSTS INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S. SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES. THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECREASING WINDS WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BRINGING TEMPS DOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL. ADJUSTING A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER...ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING...WITH THE NYC METRO AREA HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CALM BEFORE THE STORM DURING THE THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM...ESP WITH INCREASING 850MB TEMPS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTH TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL BEGIN INCREASING THE WARMER
TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW PTS. THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

NOW...FOR THE STORM. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL GL REGION MIDDAY THURSDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT NEAR
THE NORTHEAST. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE COULD GENERATE SOME LATE
AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SETTING UP TO THE
NORTH LATE FRIDAY.

THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE PCPN. WITH VERY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN AN ALL RAIN
EVENT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THAT MAY SEE TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S...BUT BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL
RAIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z
FRI...RIGHT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW. WITH
THE STRONG LLWS...AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE POSSIBLY MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE THREAT IS CURRENTLY WEAK WITH THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXPECTED TO THE WEST...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS. A VERY STRONG LLJ SETS UP
OVER THE CWA BY FRI MORNING...WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 65 AND
80 KTS AT 85OMB. WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN GREATLY
JUST WEST OF THE CWA...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WINDS REACHING WIND
ADVISORY AROUND 12Z FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KTS...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. THERE STILL REMAINS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AND WE COULD SEE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS THE
WINDS INCREASE MORE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LONG
ISLAND INTO THE NYC METRO AREA...WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD LATE
FRIDAY MORNING INTO MID DAY WHEN THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THEN
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW AND LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT...USING A GENERAL MET/MAV BLEND.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE USHERED IN FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFFECT WHETHER DAY TIME
HIGHS CAN BE MET IN THE AFTERNOON...OR WE SEE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TEMPS BY THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THE TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE COLDER AIR EXPECTED THEN BY
FRI NIGHT. OVERALL...EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
GENERALLY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW ENDS UP IN UPSTATE NY AT THIS TIME WITH THE CUT
OFF UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST SW OF THE SURFACE LOW. ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. ON SATURDAY...BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOWS TRACK NORTHEAST. WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BECAUSE OF THAT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS ON SUNDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SNOW INLAND AND
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COASTS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM DUE TO A SLIGHT
HEIGHT INCREASE ON SATURDAY...RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS. MODELS SEEM TO BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SO IF THE TREND CONTINUES...SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE AREAS NORTHWEST OF NYC MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

WINDS STAY GUSTY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH. HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS ELEVATED IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH THE GFS COMING IN STRONGER...AROUND 55KTS AT 925. CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 30MPH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. GFS/CMC AND A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WERE SHOWING THIS ON THE 12Z RUNS AND THE ECMWF 12Z CAME IN AGREEING
WITH THIS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW EJECTS A
PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DIGS QUICKLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
IN RESPONSE...A LOW AT THE SURFACE FORMS AND WILL TRACK NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BEING THE
QUICKER SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...THICKNESS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IF THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. THEN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S. LOWS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.


.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN ALL RAIN EVENT BEGINNING
TOMORROW EVENING...AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST
PCPN IS FORECASTED FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE 1 - 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED
AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 INCHES WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND STREET FLOODING IN VULNERABLE LOW LYING
AREAS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THAT LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SATURDAY MOVES TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SLIDES TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH STILL
IMPACTING THE REGION...WILL KEEP CONDS DRY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL STREAM NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...SO CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND OVER EASTERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BUT TEMPS WILL HOLD
STEADY AND MAY START TO FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS STREAM
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS
EVENING...THEN TRACKS TOWARDS WESTERN NY/PA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...THEN SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS NYC BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE NEW LOW WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE PARENT LOW
OVER CENTRAL NY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND AS IT DEPARTS...WILL DRAG A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH AT THE ONSET FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO PLAIN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE FOR
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EAST COAST AS THE SECONDARY LOW
MOVES NORTH. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL STRONG
SHORTWAVES...AND A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 65-75 KT FROM 925-850 MB.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE AREAS AS THIS LLJ TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THIS TIME...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40-45 MPH...BUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF AT LEAST 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS
DIMINISH A BIT AFTER DEPARTURE OF LLJ...BUT COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GUSTS COULD AVERAGE
45-50 MPH BRIEFLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL BETWEEN 09Z-15Z...THEN BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL
STRONG SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. RAIN WILL
MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHILE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW
50S POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND. THE HIGHER THE SFC TEMPS
REACH...THE BETTER THE CHANCES FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST SATURDAY...WITH SOME POSITIONAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED IN NCEP AND VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS ANOMALOUS TROUGH SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING BEHIND IT. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS TROUGH...ONE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND ANOTHER TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TOUGH TO TIME IN THIS FAST
FLOW.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. UNCERTAINTY ARISES ONCE THIS ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES BY WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE STACKED LOW. COULD SEE A
PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. QUESTIONS
CONTINUE WITH REGARD TO HOW STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE...WITH GFS
MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH THESE WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER...THUS
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 40 KT GUSTS. NAM MUCH LESS SO AT THIS
TIME DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF OVERALL SYSTEM.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP
TUESDAY...IF ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. THIS DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK
LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
THOUGH IN THIS FAST PATTERN 5 TO 6 DAYS IN ADVANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE ENSURES DRY WEATHER AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN
ENERGY FROM WESTERN SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SFC
FRONT/LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HPC NUMBERS/GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE.

HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY...THEN LOW PRES WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 1.25-1.5" QPF EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
URBAN/STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS...WITH A CHANCE
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ANY CONVECTION. SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS
AND RIVERS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES TO NEAR BANKFULL AS
WELL.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
420 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012

SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. A SECOND LOW WILL FORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRI
MORNING...AND MOVE UP INTO THE CWA AS WELL...BRINGING THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE SYSTEM RIGHT NEAR THE NYC METRO AREA. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH LATER FRIDAY.

PCPN AND WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS STORM. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS
EVENING...PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S OVER
INTERIOR NY AND CT...THERE MAY BE LIGHT SNOW THAT MIXES IN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING THE PCPN
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PREDOMINATELY RAIN. THE MAIN LINE OF PCPN
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL AS THE LLJ
SETTING UP IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND DECENT
LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVELS OF INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY IN A LINE. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME DAMAGING WIND LEVELS BEING BROUGHT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS. PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.0 TO
1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO ASSIST IN GENERATING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
THE PCPN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY
MOVES IN. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH IN
COOLER TEMPS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS DROPPING.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALSO DURING THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS BRING A VERY STRONG LLJ THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z...WITH WINDS AROUND 65-75 KTS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD BRING DOWN THE HIGHER WINDS. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO
60 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NY...NJ AND CT WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT T THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED...WE
COULD STILL EXPECT TO SEE ELEVATED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING TONIGHT WITH WAA...WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. SLIGHT
CHC POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NIGHT...BUT WITH COOLER...DRIER
AIR MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF QPF. A STRONG
WIND GRADIENT COMBINED WITH CAA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE FOR
THE NIGHT...FINALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY LATE SAT
NIGHT. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...ANY
PCPN OVER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...INTERIOR CT AND NJ COULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED INLAND.

TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WEAKER...AND FARTHER
EAST THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
LOW. COMBINATION OF SOME INSTABILITY IN THE COLD AIR...AND A GOOD
FETCH FROM LAKE ERIE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INLAND
AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST DURING SATURDAY. HEIGHTS
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL END THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PASSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE GFE
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES MORE REASONABLE AND TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONTINUITY HAVE USED THE HPC GUIDANCE. STILL LOOKING AT
ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WX EVENT EARLY FRI AM***

BKN CIGS AT 2500 FT OFFSHORE MOVING INTO KJFK...BUT MAY NOT REMAIN
BKN. THESE CIGS MAY ALSO MAKE IT INTO KISP...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THIS STRATOCU AT THESE 2 TERMINALS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH
A SE WIND AT OR JUST ABOVE 10 KT EARLY TONIGHT.

STRENGTHENING SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR. LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z.

STRONG SE FLOW...HEAVY RAIN...AND IFR CIGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM 10 TO 14Z FOR THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS...
AND 12Z TO 16Z FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUSTS 40 TO 45KT...POSSIBLY
HIGHER...ALONG WITH LLWS WITH 60 TO 80 KT SE WINDS FROM 1 TO 2
KFT. ISOLATED TSRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRES WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 1.25-1.5" QPF EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. URBAN/STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS...WITH A CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING IN
ANY CONVECTION. SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES TO NEAR BANKFULL AS WELL.

[cycloneye]

Off the bat I say this is very long range but I wanted to show what GFS is showing and is a mega nor'easter for the first days of 2013. Of course much more runs are needed to see changes and see if other models (Mainly ECMWF) join this model on this. Let's see how things evolve as the New Year rings for New England.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
337 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON RAIN
IMPACTS...PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. FORECAST MODELS
AND LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WINDS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS...ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUPPORT
MAINTAINING A HIGH WIND WARNING THIS MORNING WHERE IT HAD BEEN
EARLIER POSTED...AND A WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THIS STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP
BEARS SIMILARITIES TO OTHER HIGH WIND EVENTS...INCLUDING JAN 18
2006...JAN 25 2010 AND DEC 1 2010...ADDING TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

NOT AS WINDY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL WITH MAYBE A
LATE DAY SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT DUE
TO THE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE SOUND AND OCEAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE IN THE MORNING/MIDDAY BEFORE DROPPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE TONIGHT...AND WITH A DISTURBANCE IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AND EAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S LATE
AT NIGHT.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...MAINTAINING THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
STILL...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDER THAN TODAY`S...MAKING THEM CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. GUSTS UP TO 35-40MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD....THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL
SIMILAR IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF ALL THREE. AS HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOOKING AT
DRY CONDITIONS...THEREFORE HAVE ENDED ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE 21/00Z GFS AND ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW AND
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO WITH A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND...WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS.

WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES MORE REASONABLE AND TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONTINUITY HAVE USED THE HPC GUIDANCE. STILL LOOKING AT
ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WX EVENT EARLY THIS AM***

STRONG SE FLOW...HEAVY RAIN...AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FROM 09Z TO 15Z FOR THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS...AND 11Z TO 17Z FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. GUSTS 40 TO 50
KT...ALONG WITH LLWS WITH 60 TO 80 KT SE WINDS FROM 1 TO 2 KFT.
ISOLATED TSRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE PROBABILITY REMAINS
LOW.

WIND SHIFT TO THE SW AROUND 14Z-15Z EXPECTED ACROSS NYC/NJ
TERMINALS...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN WIDELY SCATTERED RA/SN SHOWERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

STRONG WSW FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE CITY TERMINALS
TONIGHT...SUBSIDING A BIT ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS BUT LIKELY
REMAINING GUSTY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT
AROUND 14Z. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT
AROUND 14Z. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT
AROUND 15Z OR 16Z. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.LATE TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK SW-W FLOW 15KT G20-25 KT CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS CITY TERMINALS. SNOW
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

.SAT...VFR. STRONG WNW WINDS 20-25G35-40KT. SNOW FLURRIES AND/OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

.SUN...MAINLY VFR. BRISK WNW FLOW 15-20G25-30KT.

.MON...VFR. CIGS BKN040-050 AND ISOLD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CITY IN THE AFT.
BRISK SW-W FLOW 15-25G25-30 KT.

MON NIGHT/TUE...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT PCPN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATES...RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
FALLING SHORT OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. ANY FLOODING MOST LIKELY
WOULD BE MINOR URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE IN NATURE...BUT WITH THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT FLASH FLOODING.
SMALL STREAM FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT MINOR AT BEST.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL TRACK SLOWLY OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WEAKENING AND MOVING UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. ANOTHER STORM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY PULL
AWAY ON FRIDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IN TANDEM WITH ITS SURFACE LOW. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE PIVOTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW TONIGHT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND/OR FLURRIES. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
THE COAST WILL BE TOO WARM...WITH SOME OF THE PCPN MIXING WITH
RAIN.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A GUSTY WEST FLOW TO CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT THE
COAST AND 20 MPH INLAND.

THE CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SAT WITH
A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

A STRONG W/NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW ON SAT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE AFT. WINDS RIGHT NOW ARE
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
AFTER A LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT AN ADVISORY MAY STILL BE
PUT UP.

HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS.

HIGHS SAT AND SUN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 40...WITH LOWS
ALSO NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. UPPER JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND AN ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON
SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MON NIGHT...THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. AMTS COULD BE ADVY-WORTHY ESPECIALLY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC. NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE IN THE EVENT WHICH COULD KEEP AMTS DOWN THERE.

BRIEF QUIET PD SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER CHRISTMAS DAY INTO WED BEFORE
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. STARTING TO SEE
BETTER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND SIDED WITH A 12Z ECMWF/06Z GFS BLEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
LIFT NE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND LIFTS NE TOWARD
THE AREA WHILE INTENSIFYING. PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUE NIGHT OR
WED MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED-WED NIGHT INTO THU.
P-TYPE SHOULD BE COMPLICATED AND DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK AND
INTENSITY...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE INTERIOR. BASED ON
A PARTIAL THICKNESS BLEND OF THE ABOVE MODELS AND FCST SURFACE
TEMPS...ATTM IT APPEARS A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERNMOST TIER OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT SHOULD SEE NEARLY
ALL SNOW...NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN AFTER AN
INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW...AND THE INTERVENING AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC
EASTWARD TO COASTAL CT COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
E-NE WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BRISK WED INTO THU AS THE INTENSIFYING
LOW APPROACHES.

PRECIP WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN ON THU AS THE LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY.
WINDS BACKING TO THE N ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COULD PULL ENOUGH
COLDER AIR DOWN TO CHANGE STEADY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
A BRISK N FLOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT FRI...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED THE LOW COULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR OVER SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN
LI THROUGH 22Z.

WSW WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS...BECOMING MORE SWLY
OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER 03Z. EXPECT AN INCREASE
AGAIN AROUND 12Z...WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO A W TO WNW FLOW BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS PSBL AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTER 18Z.

CIGS MOSTLY VFR...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR STILL REMAINING OVER AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS. VFR FOR TONIGHT EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KSWF...WHERE PSBL MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
03Z. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 240 AND 260 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 240 AND 270 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN 240 AND 270 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PSBL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 22Z...MAY LINGER AN
EXTRA HOUR.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SAT...VFR. STRONG WNW WINDS 20-25G35-40KT. SNOW FLURRIES AND/OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

.SUN...MAINLY VFR. BRISK WNW FLOW 15-20G25-30KT.

.MON...VFR. CIGS BKN040-050 AND ISOLD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE CITY IN THE AFT.
BRISK SW-W FLOW 15-25G25-30 KT.

MON NIGHT-WED...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN PCPN.


.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAMAPO RIVER AT MAHWAH REMAINS IN
EFFECT WITH A FORECAST CREST OF 8.5 FT LATER TONIGHT. THE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SAT AFT.

POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...AND UP TO
AN INCH FOR THE STORM SYSTEM WED INTO THU.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THEN SLOWLY PULL AWAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG WINDS TODAY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

STACKED LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION...AND CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PRODUCED A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS WARM PER NAM/GFS FORECAST PROFILES/MOS NUMBERS...SO ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY...WITH A DEEP
MIXED LAYER AND PRESENCE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT PROMOTING MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DOWN THROUGH THE LAYER TO THE SFC. EXPECT GUSTS NEAR OR
IN SOME CASES IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCATIONS FURTHER
EAST SUCH AS SERN CT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REALIZE THESE
STRONGER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT EXPECTED AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH. GENERAL FLOW
TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY IN THIS FAST UPPER STEERING
FLOW...AND WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

CHILLY TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH AREA
DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY SETTLE INTO THE
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40 SUNDAY PER MOS.

STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY HOWEVER...ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. COLD
AT NIGHT...AT OR BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S TO AROUND 40 DURING THE
DAY.

ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY...CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NW...AND MOVES QUICKLY EAST MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE
SFC...WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED ON THE POSITION/TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A QUICK SHOT
OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS COULD BE ADVY-WORTHY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/WEST OF NYC. NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE IN THE EVENT WHICH COULD KEEP AMTS DOWN THERE.

STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF
STATES LATE TUESDAY...AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
FORMS ALONG THE MID ATLC COASTAL PLAIN AND LIFTS NE TOWARD THE
AREA. PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE WED...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT
INTO THU. P-TYPE WILL BE COMPLICATED AND DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK
AND INTENSITY...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE INTERIOR. BASED
ON MODEL THICKNESS ANALYSIS/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...ATTM IT APPEARS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE NORTHERNMOST TIER
OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT SHOULD SEE NEARLY ALL SNOW...NYC METRO AND
LONG ISLAND SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND THE INTERVENING AREAS NORTH/WEST OF NYC EASTWARD TO
COASTAL CT COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX. E-NE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BECOME BRISK WED INTO THU AS THE INTENSIFYING LOW
APPROACHES. STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN ON THU AS THE LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY.
WINDS BACKING TO THE N ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COULD PULL ENOUGH
COLDER AIR DOWN TO CHANGE STEADY PRECIP BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
A BRISK N FLOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT FRI...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED THE LOW COULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RAMAPO RIVER AT MAHWAH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND IS RECEDING. I BELIEVE THE RIVER
WILL RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL FOR A THIRD OF AN INCH EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND UP TO AN INCH FOR THE STORM SYSTEM WED INTO THU.

[Stephanie]

Great timing for the snow for the people going skiing for Christmas in New England. Getting there will be fun...

[cycloneye]

Sure looks that way Steph. On the 27th a strong low will move thru with cold air in place.After that one both GFS and ECMWF have a big nor'easter for New Years Eve but there are differences on the timing and track.

12z GFS on the 27th



12z GFS on the 31rst



12z ECMWF on the 31rst

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Vermont NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...AND DIMINISH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND SEASONABLY COLD WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE NEXT
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...BRISK CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE SOUTH OF VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW CENTRAL CENTRAL QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY
FALLEN DURING THE DAY...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WLY WINDS
AND LOW- LEVEL CAA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THERE IS SOME DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS THRU 03Z...SO LOOK FOR A FEW WESTERLY
GUSTS 40-45 MPH ACROSS CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL CONTINUES THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST. LOOKING FOR STORM TOTAL SNOW OF
AROUND 6" IN SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY...AND GENERALLY 3-5" ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE WITH MOST FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS...ALONG WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF THE GREENS
WITH STRONG BACKGROUND WLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. WE CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING JUST FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY NY THRU 06Z...WITH
WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR WRN CLINTON NY (THRU 06Z) AND ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE GREENS (THRU 12Z). AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING. HIGH SNOW RATIOS OF 20:1 TO 25:1
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT GENERALLY UPR SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY WILL REINTRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING
SUNDAY AFTN. THERE IS SOME BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ACROSS FAR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES WITH
JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS DUSTING TO 1
INCH...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1-2" FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL VT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT 20-30 POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN AREAS WHICH MIGHT SEE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EST SATURDAY...SNOW WILL END ACROSS OUR VERMONT
ZONES CHRISTMAS MORNING AND THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OUT OF CANADA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL
IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH UNFORTUNATELY DETAILS STILL
REMAIN UNCLEAR. LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY...AND FINALLY
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE FRIDAY. LATEST GFS TRACK IS A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND COULD POSSIBLY BRING US A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. ECMWF STILL HAS A GOOD TRACK FOR SNOW FOR US...RIGHT ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


Portland Maine afternoon discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLDER..DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND CHRISTMAS
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND
MAINE...WITH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
AREAS OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY HAVE ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST AS
TEMPERATURES DROP.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SPOKES OF
ENERGY AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS UPSLOPE FORCING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND AM EXPECTING ONLY
NEGLIGIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
COMPLETELY EXCEPT FOR AN ECHO OR TWO OVER NORTHERN COOS AND
NORTHERN OXFORD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE TROUGH ALREADY THROUGH MOST OF
MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL TONIGHT AS DRIER AND
COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH. WIND CHILLS IN A
FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS -20 F DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THIS
EVENING ENCOURAGING GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WHICH WILL PRECLUDE
LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS WITH
WESTERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. AFTER A CHILLY START TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S SOUTH.
A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE LOCATIONS WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS BEFORE SPEEDS WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY HIT WIND CHILL CRITERIA IN ONLY VERY ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR MON INTO EARLY TUE...WITH COOL AND DRY
CONDS PREVAILING. CHRISTMAS DAY A PAIR OF S/WV TROFS WILL APPROACH
FROM THE W. THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM WAVES CAN
PHASES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND HOW FAR N THE QPF GETS.
ATTM...22/12Z ECMWF KEEPS THEM LARGELY UNPHASED...AND SLIDES IT
OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE 22/12Z NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST A
TIGHTLY WOUND S/WV THAT TRACKS THRU NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN
MORE QPF TO THE N. A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLNS WOULD PUT AROUND 0.10"
QPF FROM A KLEB TO KPWM LINE...AND AROUND 0.20" ACROSS FAR SRN NH.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHRISTMAS DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
DRY AIR TO THE N WILL ENSURE A SHARP NRN CUT OFF TO PCPN...SO THE
NRN EDGE TOTALS ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. ESPECIALLY IF A NAM12
SOLN PLAYS OUT...STRONGER MID LVL DYNAMICS COULD PROVIDE SOME
BANDING THANKS TO FGEN AT H7...MAINLY FOR SRN NH ZONES. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING NWP RUNS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WED/THU STORM SYSTEM. ALL SIGNS POINT
TOWARDS SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER EXACT
TRACK REMAINS IN DOUBT...AND RELIES LARGELY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
LIGHT SN EVOLUTION. A STRONGER SYSTEM TUE WILL RESULT IN MORE
CONFLUENCE TO OUR NE...AND A FARTHER S STROM TRACK THU. WEAKER AND
UNPHASED...AND THE THU STORM WILL HAVE ROOM TO CUT MORE TOWARDS
THE W. AS THINGS STAND NOW...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SPLIT INTO A MORE
WLY TRACK...WHILE UKMET AND GEM REMAIN CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK.
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO REMAIN WITH A TRACK CLOSER TO THE
CAPE. FOR INSTANCE...MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FEATURE A TRACK N
OR JUST N OF THE CAPE COD CANAL...WITH A FEW AMPED UP WLY TRACKS
THRU NY AND A COUPLE MEMBERS THAT HEAD WIDE RIGHT. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS ALSO INVOF A CAPE COD CANAL TRACK. CLIMO WOULD SUGGEST
THIS TRACK BRINGS MIXING ISSUES TO SRN NH AND THE ME COASTLINE.
HAVE DECIDED TO USE GFS THERMAL PROFILES TO CREATE WX
GRIDS...WHICH MAY BE A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE OVERALL...BUT BRINGS
MIXING INTO THE COAST. BASED ON THE ELY WIND COMPONENT AT H8 AND
SEASONABLY HIGH PWAT AIR MASS DRAWN NWD WITH THE
STORM...SIGNIFICANT QPF IS PSBL. IF THERMAL PROFILES CAN REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH THIS WILL MEAN A SIGNIFICANT SNFL EVENT FOR MUCH...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE CWFA.

FOLLOWING SOME NWLY UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE MTNS FRI...HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FOR SAT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW FOR SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

HANES/LEGRO

[ejburas]

New member here. I'll be traveling to New England Dec 30 - Jan 6, flying into Hartford, CT, staying in the Lakes Region of NH, and driving around most of NH, VT, Boston, Salem, and Portland. Hoping for some good snowfall while I'm there!

[BigB0882]

We did end up having snow flurries during the day Saturday! At least we saw something!

[cycloneye]

New member here. I'll be traveling to New England Dec 30 - Jan 6, flying into Hartford, CT, staying in the Lakes Region of NH, and driving around most of NH, VT, Boston, Salem, and Portland. Hoping for some good snowfall while I'm there!

Welcome to Storm2k. As time goes by, you will have more details and finetuning of the models to see how things will be in that period. Stay tuned here for more info in the comming days.

[cycloneye]

We did end up having snow flurries during the day Saturday! At least we saw something!

Great to know that at least you experienced that. Have a safe travel today.

[cycloneye]

A back to back strong nor'easters will plow thru the New England region on the 27 thru 28 and 30th thru New Years Eve. Changes can occur so stay tuned.

Hybridstorm_November2001 good luck up there.

On the 27th:



On the 28th:



On the 30th:



On the 31rst:

[cycloneye]

Vermont NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SPREADS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. A
MUCH STRONGER...MOISTURE-LADEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 223 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE (1007MB) AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AT
19Z WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BACKED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW IS ALLOWING
MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO SPREAD NEWD
INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND WILL
AUGMENT THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT THRU 03Z
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WITH LIQUID EQUIV. AMTS 0.10"
OR LESS. WITH COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...LOOKING FOR 20:1 SNOW
RATIOS SO GENERALLY A LIGHT DUSTING-1" IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3" WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM STAR LAKE TO
WANAKENA NY. ANY 1-2" TOTALS IN VERMONT WOULD GENERALLY BE VCNTY
OF THE GREEN MTNS/HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTL FOR SOME SUBLIMATION EFFECTS.
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END
AFTER 06Z AS MID-LEVEL VORT SHIFTS RAPIDLY EAST OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW LOW 20S IN THE
VALLEYS OF S-CENTRAL VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 223 PM EST SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS MONDAY AS WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. FLAT P-GRADIENT
WITH S-SW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 MPH. TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH VALLEY HIGHS 24-28F...EXCEPT LOCALLY
28-32F FOR THE VALLEYS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
S-CENTRAL VT. POPS NIL.

MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION 00-06Z MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT OFF
THE NJ COASTLINE TOWARD 12Z CHRISTMAS DAY. SOME QG ASCENT CROSSES
OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OUR CENTRAL/SRN ZONES FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...GENERALLY 10-18Z CHRISTMAS
DAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS...BUT A DRY SNOW WITH
1-2" ACCUMULATION EXPECTED CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT CHRISTMAS
MORNING...WITH D-1" ACROSS NRN ZONES. SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. IF
SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...LOWS COULD BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST SECTIONS TO LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FOR WED MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT FOR THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM AND THEN
BECOME THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING JUST INSIDE THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NYC BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND
PORTLAND MAINE BY 00Z FRIDAY. A TRACK JUST OFF THE COAST IS A
MORE IDEAL TRACK FOR A NICE SNOWSTORM FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS STORM. THERE
WILL BE SOME WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...AND PROBABLY JUST
ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF SLEET TO MIX IN AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN
THE GRIDS. HAVE MENTIONED LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES. LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...RIGHT
NOW LOOKS LIKE STORM TOTAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST BIG SNOWSTORM IN A
WHILE...WITH STORM TOTALS OVER A FOOT IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW MODEL DATA AS IT BECOMES
AVAILABLE AND WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR
THE COAST FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
START OUT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT TREND COLDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.


Boston NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

...UPDATES TO THE NEAR- AND SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ICING FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. A STRONGER
BUT PROBABLY MILDER STORM WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN/ICE AND/OR SNOW
TO THE REGION WED INTO THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

LOOKING AT A QUIET NIGHT DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES...WITH WLY FLOW
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE GUSTS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE E SHORLINE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WINDS MAY TURN CALM LATE ALLOWING FOR
EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING. FEEL THE MAV/MET/MOSGUIDE HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON MIN TEMPS AROUND THE LOW-MID 20S WITH UPR TEENS ACROSS
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

CHRISTMAS EVE /MONDAY/...

SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL. DRY WX PREVAILS THANKS TO
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE ATMOS COLUMN PER MID-LVL RIDGING. LOOKING AT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS VEERING SELY LATE AS MID-HIGH LVL
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME AS DIFLUENCE AND ISENTROPIC
PROCESSES INCREASE FROM THE SW NEWD ACROSS THE COLD DOME AIRMASS
PARENT WITH THE HIGH PRES. MAV/MET/MOSGUIDE LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS
AROUND THE UPR 30S...FEEL INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE
KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL.

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT /MONDAY NIGHT/ INTO CHRISTMAS DAY /TUESDAY/...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF A WEAK OPEN WAVE DISTURBANCE WITH ATTENDANT
BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROCESSES AND MID-LVL FORCING TO ALLOW FOR
A LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EVENT CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT
CHRISTMAS DAY /AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON H85-7
THICKNESSES REMAINING COLD/.

ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE IS SOME WEAK TROWALING
TOWARDS BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES THRU UPSTATE NY ALLOWING FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE. YET
THERE ARE SOME INTANGIBLES CONCERNING HOW THE POLAR CONTINENTAL
CLIPPER INTERACTS WITH ENERGY SWEPT NEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHETHER THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY PHASE OR REMAIN SEPARATE REMAINS IN
QUESTION /THE GFS-NAM LEANING TOWARDS THE LATTER/. THIS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE THERMAL PROFILE DOWN TO THE SFC.

BELIEVE BROAD FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SNOW EVENT WITH NOCTURNAL PASSAGE. INITALLY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
PROCESSES SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NEW ENGLAND AT OR BELOW
FREEZING EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST INTO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN /SNOW
MAY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC WITH ONSET AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
HIGHLIGHT A DEEP LYR OF VERY DRY AIR UP TO H6...THEREBY IMPACTING
FINAL SNOW TOTALS/.

INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS CHRISTMAS DAY THE QUESTION TURNS TOWARDS
TOP-DOWN DRYING OF THE ATMOS COLUMN LIMITING THE PRESENCE OF ICE. IT
IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH
REMAINS EXTENDED WEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/CAPE COD. LOW-LVL MOIST
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH LITTLE ICE IN THE COLUMN COULD RESULT IN A
FREEZING RAIN/PLAIN RAIN EVENT FOR S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

SO HERE IS THE OVERALL THINKING...SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND ASIDE FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS.
THEREAFTER WILL SEE A DUAL INVASION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND WARMER AIR
AT THE SFC ALLOWING FOR A SOUTH TO NORTH TRANSITION OF SNOW TO A MIX
OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN. ALL TOLD IN THE END...A BROAD
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION S OF THE MASS PIKE...WITH TRACE
ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AND N OF THE PIKE. INTO THE AFTN AND
EVENING IMPACTS LINGER LONGEST ALONG E NEW ENGLAND MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

WENT COLDER THAN THE MAV/MET/MOSGUIDE FOR EVENING TEMPS CONSIDERING
EVAP COOLING PROCESSES...LEANING CLOSER TO THE DEWPOINT. FEEL
MAV/MET/MOSGUIDE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON MAX TEMPS AROUND THE MID-UPR
30S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE EXPECATION IS FOR SFC HIGH PRES TO BUILD S/E OUT OF NRN CANADA
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR DEEP LYR SUBSIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR USHERED BY W/NWLY FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED.

ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHORE WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE A STRONGER
COMPENENT OF NLY WINDS VEERING E/NELY...THE INTERIOR SHOULD
EXPERIENCE LIGHT AND CALM WINDS WITH INCREASING MID-UPR LVL CLOUDS
LATE /ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INCREASING DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID-
WEEK DISTURBANCE/. WHILE EFFECTIVE NOCTURNAL COOLING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD BLANKET...FEEL MIN TEMPS AROUND LOW 20S HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
MAV/MET/MOSGUIDE IS A GOOD FIRST-GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* LIGHT SNOWFALL LIKELY XMAS EVE NIGHT/XMAS MORNING MOST AREAS
* STRONGER BUT MILDER STORM LIKELY WED/THU
* WED/THU STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN/ICE AND/OR SNOW
* WED/THU WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG COASTAL
WINDS/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 22/12Z
GUIDANCE...AND WHILE THIS IS GOOD FOR CONSISTENCY...THE 12Z
GUIDANCE WAS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM RUNS PREVIOUS.
THEREFORE...UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING ARE TRENDING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...PARTICULAR FOR THE
STRONGER MID WEEK STORM. THE ONE AGREEMENT HERE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS IS THAT THEY CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MOSTLY ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. REGARDING THE WEAK SFC LOW PRES AFFECTING
AREAS CHRISTMAS EVE AND EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THE 00Z GFS IS NOW A
BIT COOLER /CLOSER TO MORE GEFS MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/
THAN WAS THE 12Z RUN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW EVENT. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUGGEST SOME RAIN
MIXING IN FOR THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE
REASON FOR THE SLIGHT WARM SHIFT IS DUE TO AN ENERGY TRANSFER FROM
A CLIPPER THROUGH NY STATE TO AN OFFSHORE LOW S OF LONG ISLAND
WHICH MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT STRUGGLING WITH. MODELS NOW INDICATE
THAT H5 TROF CARRYING THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL LEAN POSITIVE AND
CUTOFF A BIT EARLIER...WHICH ALLOWS THE SFC LOW TO SLIDE MORE
INLAND THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. GFS IS NOW WARMEST MODEL
WHILE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN THE
LATEST CMC HAS COME IN LINE AND NOW MOVES THE LOW INLAND RATHER
THAN KEEPING IT OFFSHORE AND THROUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE
MIDDLE ROAD SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF HAS THE MOST ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS SOLUTION FOR THIS
UPDATE. FINALLY...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM
EFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THE ENVELOPE OF
POSSIBILITIES IS QUITE LARGE ATTM...SO CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN
ANY ONE MODEL.

DETAILS...

WED INTO THU...
AFTER BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRES TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED
MORNING...A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
RAPIDLY FROM THE SW. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...GUIDANCE NOW HAS THIS
LOW TRAVELING FURTHER INLAND...EITHER OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND OR INTO
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THIS FACT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE
RAINFALL RATHER THAN WINTRY PRECIP /ALTHOUGH A SNOW/SLEET MIX AT
ONSET CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE COOLER INTERIOR/. ATTM...THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS WOULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS EARLY THU WITH A 60-70 KT LLJ AND PWATS APPROACHING
1.0 INCH. THE INLAND TRACK ALSO MITIGATES THE ELY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND SOMEWHAT...BUT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION
IS POSSIBLE ALONG E AND SE FACING SHORELINES. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS ALL THESE THREATS ARE HIGHLY TRACK
DEPENDENT...AND GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL SWINGS THIS IS ONLY A LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

FRI INTO SAT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NW WINDS FRI. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.

SUN INTO MON...
SIGNALS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH LOW
PRES AFFECTING THE AREA IN SOME FORM. A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT HERE
WHICH WOULD GREATLY EFFECT SENSIBLE WX DETAILS. THEREFORE...WILL
TREND POPS/WX TOWARD A WET SOLUTION BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY
P-TYPE.

[cycloneye]

Today my focus is on the New Years Eve mega Nor'easter that will be stronger than the 27-28 one.

The 12z GFS is stronger but away from the New England coast. Cold air will be in place.



The 12z Euro is very strong with this system and closer to the coast.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Boston NWS afternoon discussion. I highlighted the long term section about the New Years Eve nor'easter.

Note=I will not by posting here on the 25th as I will be celebrating Christmas with my family. I will be back on Wednesday the 26th.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL AND SOME
LIGHT ICING FOR TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. A STRONGER BUT MILDER
STORM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FRIDAY...THEN
ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING. WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...

* LIGHT SNOW AND POCKETS OF LIGHT ICING LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY.

MODELS...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPCOMING
SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE BENCHMARK BY
TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ARE QUIET CONSISTENT ON THEIR TIMING AS
WELL AS THERE THERMAL PROFILES...WITH THE GFS BEING THE WARMEST
AND THE 18Z NAM BEING THE COLDEST. OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT A WHITE CHRISTMAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

DETAILS...

ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WAVE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING AT
06Z LASTING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LARGE SPREAD OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE ONSET...ESP IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION. EXPECT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR FROM 00-06Z WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS DROPPING THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW.
WITH RELATIVELY COOL NIGHTS...BELIEVE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ESP ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ACROSS THE MID TO
LOWER CAPE EXPECT PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

FROM 06-12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MORE ROBUST LIFT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL PRETTY MOIST STILL IN THE LOW
LEVELS...BUT BECAUSE LOSE OUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALOFT...BELIEVE
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL SWITCH OVER TO MORE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND EVEN
PLUME DIAGRAMS ARE HINTING AT A WARM AIR NOSE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AT AROUND 925-900 MB....WARMING THE
NUCLEI TO 3C. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH MELTING OF THE PRECIP TO FALL IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RA WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING.
MODEL 2M TEMPS ARE QUIET TRICKY IN SHOWING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
BUT BELIEVE EVAPORATE COOLING WILL DROP THEM FARTHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE BLENDED THE MAV AND MET BIAS CORRECTED 2M
TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE HI-RES ARW TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
FORECASTER THINKING.

OVERALL A TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONSET OF PRECIP TO BE
MAINLY SNOW FOR MOST AREA WITH SNOW TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. PORTIONS OF CT AND INTO WESTERN MASS WILL SEE ISOLATED 3
INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TREAT OF A TRACE TO NO MORE THAN A
TENTH INCH OF ICE...PLAN ON KEEPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADV GOING. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CHRISTMAS DAY...
ONGOING LIGHT ICING AS WELL AS SNOW FALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. MOTORIST WHO ARE OUT ON THE ROADS TOMORROW SHOULD
USE CAUTION ESP IN AREAS THAT HAVE/HAD LIGHT ICING OCCUR. MOST OF
THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL LEAVE THE REGION BETWEEN 12- 18Z TOMORROW
SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER. SNOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...BUT
SOUTH OF THE PIKE THE FREEZING DZ WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A RAIN
EVENT ESP AFTER 15Z WHEN TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER ALONG THE CAPE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 40S...BUT ITS PLAUSIBLE ESP ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DROPPING
TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS AIDED
BY CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SET UP ACROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WX TO PREVAIL UP TIL AT
LEAST 18Z AS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE DISTANT INTERIOR AND RAIN COAST WED
NIGHT...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN DURING THU
* STRONG TO DAMAGING COASTAL WINDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU
* MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE THU MORNING HIGH TIDE
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST TO THE SNE COAST WED
NIGHT INTO THU. AS A RESULT WE BLENDED THE ECMWF/GFS QPF AND
THICKNESSES TO DERIVE THE SNOW/ICE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT. TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL BE TOO CLOSE TO LOCK IN COLD AIR FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE IS
LIKELY FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
SFC RIDGING FROM SFC HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NEW
ENG TUE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST WED. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CAPE TUE
EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH SUNSHINE TO START
THE DAY ON WED...BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE
DURING WED AFTERNOON.

OVERRUNNING MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO SW NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY WED. THERE
WILL INITIALLY BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME SO THINK
THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION WILL
BE DRY WED...BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW ZONES AND HAVE LOW CHC POPS HERE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS STRONG
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SNE.
PRESENCE OF SFC RIDGING AND EVAP COOLING FROM LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FOR THE PRECIP TO START AS SNOW
OR SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR MOST OF SNE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE S
COAST WHERE MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED.

PRECIP WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN WED NIGHT AS MID
LEVEL WARMING ADVANCES NORTHWARD. THIS PROCESS WILL BE QUICK IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS E WINDS WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW N OF
THE MASS PIKE AND WEST OF I495. EARLY ESTIMATES ARE FOR 3-6" OF
SNOW IN THIS REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NW MA AND SW NH WHERE
CHANGEOVER MAY NOT OCCUR TIL THU MORNING. OF COURSE SINCE WE ARE
STILL MORE THAN 48 HOURS FROM THE STORM THIS COULD CERTAINLY
CHANGE.

ICE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN THE INTERIOR INCLUDING THE CT VALLEY
AS SFC COLD AIR MAY GET LOCKED IN AS THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.

EVENTUALLY A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR DURING
THU MORNING AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
BE LIFTING TO THE N THU AFTERNOON.

STRONG WINDS...WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST LATER
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS POSSIBLE SO COULD SEE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE THU MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE E COAST. ASTRO TIDES
ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH BUT UP TO A 2 FT SURGE AND WAVE ACTION
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING.

DURING NEXT WEEKEND...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM OF GULF COAST ORIGIN TO
EMERGE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME A COASTAL STORM THAT COULD AFFECT
OUR AREA. IMPACTS VARY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. A SOLUTION CLOSER
TO THE COAST...SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF...COULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT
PCPN EVENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT/SUN. OTHER
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS AND GFS ENS MEAN KEEP THE STORM
CENTER MORE OUT TO SEA AS IT NEARS OUR AREA...PROVIDING JUST A
GLANCING BLOW. GIVEN HOW FAR THIS SYSTEM IS INTO THE EXTENDED...IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN...BUT
THE PRECIP TYPE IS FAR FROM FINALIZED.

QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT MONDAY...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
RANGING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCE GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY OF
OUR AREA...TO A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 12z Euro for December 30 and 31rst which has a powerful nor'easter but mainly just offshore on the 30th but hooks a little bit to the left on New Years Eve day. However,with very cold air in place a bunch of snow is expected for most of the New England region. Stay tuned for more information as changes may occur.

December 30:



December 31:

[cycloneye]

I am posting the most compete discussion (Boston NWS) from the NE area about what will be occuring in the next few days in the region.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THU.
THIS STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND SNOW...
SLEET...AND RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER STORM PASSES UP
THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE FROM WESTERN CANADA MAY
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING HOWEVER MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENT SO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE STILL QUIET HIGH SO DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO START FALLING TIL
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE MADE UPDATES TO TEMPS AS TEMPS ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...

* SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.

MAIN HAZARDS:

* HEAVY WET SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING SOUTHERN
NH...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA.
* SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS POSSIBLE AT TRANSITIONS FROM SNOW TO RAIN
THURS MORNING
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST COASTS INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS
* STRONG STORM FOR MARINERS
* MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR EAST FACING BEACHES.

MODELS...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS NOT IN OVERALL COLLABORATION THE 12Z NAM
BROUGHT THE LOW IN FARTHER INLAND THEN THE CONSISTENT GFS/EC. THE
NAM WAS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS WELL. APPEARS THAT THE NAM
DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL FROM THE GET GO SO THEREFORE HAVE
DISCOUNTED IT. THE LATEST EC CAME IN COLDER THAN THE GFS...SO
DECIDED TO BLEND TOWARDS A MIDDLE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO.
OVERALL THIS DID VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILERS.

DETAILS...
NEGATIVELY TILED AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE LATEST
RADAR COMPOSITE IMAGERY. DUE TO THE DRY DEWPOINTS...IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME BEFORE THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED TO THE SURFACE. BEST
TIME WILL BE AT 00Z...PLUS OR MINUS AND HOUR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 02Z. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

PRECIP TYPE...
BELIEVE THAT A BURST OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AT THE ONSET AS TEMPS
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY ARE BELOW FREEZING ALREADY. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION. EXPECT WIDE SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTH COAST AS WELL AS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EAST COAST SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW FREEZING. BY THE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...WARM AIR WILL START TO INTRUDE INTO THE MID
LAYERS. ALTHOUGH THE WARM NOSE IS NOT A PRONOUNCE...FREEZING RAIN
AT THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN LOOKS PLAUSIBLE ESP ACROSS CT
AND INTO RI. EXPECT THIS TRANSITIONS OF FREEZING RAIN TO SLOWLY
INTRUDE NORTHWARD AS TEMPS SLOWLY WARM AS WELL. BY THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW MANY PLACES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL BE RAIN
WHILE NORTHWARD WILL BE A MIX AS WELL AS SNOW.

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTERS STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SHARP
CUT-OFF OF HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS A TRACE OF SNOW. HOWEVER
FELT THAT THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD OUT-WEIGHT THE LOWER
TOTALS...AND WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AS THE EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THE COASTAL FRONT IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE ADV INTO RI AS THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED A TAD
COLDER...SO MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THEM. DETAILS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AS WELL AS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. SEVERAL
MODES SHOW THAT A 60-70 KTS JET AT 925 MB OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
EXPECT MOST OF THAT TO MIX DOWN ESP IN AREAS WITH EASTERLY WINDS.
LOOKING A LOCAL STUDY DONE HERE AT THE WFO...HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WITH STRONG JET AT 60-70 KTS
COMBINED WITH 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 9MB BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN AT THE SURFACE. HAVE GUSTS UP TO 60KTS IN MANY COASTLINE
AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 2 AM TO 10 AM.
WIND ADV FOR SURROUNDING AREAS AS GUSTS MAY MIX OUT INTO THE
INTERIOR...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

QPF...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT A GOOD
SWATH OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TRENDED TOWARDS
THE NERFC QPF AS IT HAS A GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT SMALL STREAMS. LAST
WEEK THE STREAMS HAD A STRONG RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED
AROUND 1- 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THE STREAMS
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG RESPONSE AND
MAY GO INTO ACTION LEVEL. DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD RIVER
FLOODING. ALSO BECAUSE OF THE COLD HARD GROUND AND BELIEVE THAT
POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

OVERALL THIS STORM SYSTEM PACKS QUIET A FEW PUNCHES FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM WINTER WEATHER TO HIGH WIND TO COASTAL FLOODING. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE
INFORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TOMORROW...
EXPECT OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS TO BE ONGOING TOMORROW...BUT SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS. APPEARS THAT A DRY- SLOT IS
TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY THOUGH THE MID LEVEL AFTER 12Z...THIS MAY
SLOW UP THE STEADY PRECIP TO JUST DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
BELIEVE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BY THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BELIEVE
THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO MOVE THE COLD AIR OUT SO
QUICKLY...SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITHIN THE FORECAST. AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND JET WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...DUE TO THE ALMOST STACKED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAPE COD CANAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT COLD AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR WESTERN MASS AND
INTO NH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY STORM MOVES
OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY...AND NEW ENGLAND GETS A SHORT
RESPITE IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE DOMINANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN RACES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE
LONG RANGE MODELS AFTER THAT WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINS AN UPPER TROUGH. BUT
EVEN THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS A CLIPPER IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY SO WHILE THE CONFLICT LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE EARLY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW EAST OF OUTER CAPE
COD MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW WITH VALUES OF 1
TO 1.5 MB/HOUR. THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
POTENTIAL IS FOR 20-30 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS JUST EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS THURSDAY EVENING
AND MOVES TO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BUT DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND
950 MB...SO MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW. EVEN SO...TEMPS
ALOFT SUPPORT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...POSSIBLY AROUND 40 IN
A FEW SOUTHERN SPOTS. MIN TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF AND REACHES THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ECMWF/GFS/GGEM AGREE ON TAKING THE STORM JUST OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD BE A COLD PATTERN FOR US WITH PCPN MAINLY AS
SNOW...POSSIBLY SOME RAIN ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ISENTROPIC
LIFT REACHES SOUTHERN CT-RI-MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS MAY BE A FEW HOURS FAST AS THE BULK OF
SUCH LIFT DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 21Z. WITH THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER OFFSHORE THE FORECAST VERTICAL VELOCITY IS MUCH LESS THAN
THE FIRST STORM... 10MB/HR OR LESS AS COMPARED WITH 30-40 MB/HOUR.
BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BASED ON EXPECTED QPF
WE HAVE UP TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE.

THE STORM REACHES ITS CLOSEST POINT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVES OFF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER US AROUND
12Z SUNDAY...THEN MOVE EAST. SO EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SLOW CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AS NOTED THERE WILL BE A CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST USA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO AT LEAST A PART OF THE TIME
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND AT LEAST WIDELY-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
BEST BET FOR DRY WEATHER WOULD BE MONDAY. WE HAVE ADAPTED THE
FORECAST FROM HPC GRIDS AND THE 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

TODAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING.
AS THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR FROM
SW-NE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
STARTING OFF AS SNOW...THEN MIXTURE OF -PL/-FZRA EVENTUALLY
CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG COAST AND JUST INLAND. MIXED PRECIP OR ALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THEN MAINLY S OVER S NH/NW MA. MORE MIXING
MAY MOVE FURTHER N LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MAY NEED TO
ISSUE AIRPORT WX WARNINGS IF MIXED PRECIP AFFECTS SPECIFIC
TERMINALS. STRONG ENE WINDS WITH LLWS LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY START IMPROVING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH THE
NORTH.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON LLWS
AND TIMING OF MIXED PRECIP.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON LLWS AND
TIMING OF MIX PRECIP TRANSITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IFR IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY SUNRISE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY BOS AND
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS AS ANOTHER STORM PASSES
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS START VFR BUT LOWER TO MVFR EXCEPT IFR IN SNOW
CAPE/ISLANDS/SOUTH COAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...
VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL CROSS THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING STORM FORCE E-NE WINDS
TO MOST OF THE WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 50-60 KTS LATE TONIGHT
AND THU. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 15-20 FT OR EVEN
HIGHER ON THE EASTERN WATERS. THIS IS A STRONG STORM AND MARINERS
ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
REDUCED VSBY IN RAIN/SNOW EARLY BUT IMPROVING OVERNIGHT. ROUGH SEAS
WITH 10-15 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS CONTINUE ROUGH
BUT DIMINISHING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
TO NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING EAST WINDS SATURDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY. WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY
GUST NEAR 35 KNOTS ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS LESS
THAN 5 FEET SATURDAY BUT BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS BUT DIMINISHING.
SEAS 5-8 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS AND DIMINISHING. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
MA COAST. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
HIGH...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BUILD UP A 2 FOOT SURGE.
THIS WILL STILL RESULT IN STORM TIDES BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT
BUILDING SEAS OFFSHORE OF 15-20 KT MAY YIELD WAVES BREAKING OVER
SEAWALLS ONTO SHORE ROADS YIELDING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN THE FLOOD-PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN MA COASTLINE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
008>012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MAZ013>018.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR RIZ005>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
RIZ002>004.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-256.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN