New England Winter 2012-2013

[cycloneye]

A very revealing tweet by Ryan Maue.

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Northeast largely escapes worst of this cold dome, but at 7-days, Maine is bullseye for -39°C air at 850 mb

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A very revealing tweet by Ryan Maue.

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Northeast largely escapes worst of this cold dome, but at 7-days, Maine is bullseye for -39°C air at 850 mb

oh no

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

ok I can't help but

[cycloneye]

.URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1212 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

...WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

CTZ005>008-NYZ069-070-160115-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.130116T0500Z-130116T2100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1212 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1104 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...

MAZ002>006-008>012-026-170000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130117T0000Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...
MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER
1104 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS
INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6
INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW HAS FALLEN...LIGHT SNOW...SLEET
AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CROSS OVER THE ADVISORY AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EAST OF THE I495 CORRIDOR...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING... MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1215 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET STILL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

CTZ005>008-NYZ069-070-162100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130116T2100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1215 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

Very cold for New England with snow for next week.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Hope you folks have found your long johns......
because we are sending you Old Man Winter via Express Post

[Nicko999]

We had a thunderstorm this morning...

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

It will change........s*o*o*n.

[cycloneye]

Not a big snow event is expected in New England from Winter Storm Jove but some areas may get a foot.

[cycloneye]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z weekend Nor'easter further offshore, less coastal impacts than previous 00z run. Deepens to 964 mb at 5-days

[cycloneye]

Well,it looks like it will be a dissapointment for those in New England who wanted to see a big nor'easter this upcomming weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
DEV LOPING LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MOVES OFF
THE COAST AS A WEAKENING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW PASSING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...AND DEEPENING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT
CLOSE OFF. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH ARE NOT QUITE AS
PROGRESSIVE AS THE NAM WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THE GFS ECMWF BLEND
DOES KEEP A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...AS A LESS SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT.

RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
MODERATE...AND FINALLY RETURN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Precipitation is running below normal for most of New England. Let's see if the rest of Winter things get better in that department.

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
258 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 2 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD JANUARY 24TH TO
FEBRUARY 7TH 2013.

FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR THE WINTER AND
SPRING OF 2013 IS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL DUE TO
NEAR NORMAL RIVER ICE.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING...
AFTER A PERIOD OF WARMING ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA ON THE 19TH AND
20TH OF JANUARY...SNOW DEPTHS HAVE DROPPED BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING IS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. ESTIMATED BASIN AVERAGE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE LISTED BELOW.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...GROUND FROST...AND RUNOFF POTENTIAL...
SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. IN ALBANY NY THE
FROST DEPTH WAS 6 INCHES ON JANUARY 24TH. AS A RESULT...RUNOFF
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...
FLOWS IN AREA RIVERS ARE NEAR NORMAL. RIVER ICE COVER AND THICKNESS
ARE NEAR NORMAL. WHILE MOST ICE WAS LOST WITH THE WARMUP ON JANUARY
19TH AND 20TH...THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THE WEEK OF THE 21ST ARE
EASILY MAKING UP FOR PREVIOUS LOSSES. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM COLD STRETCH...WHERE FREEZE UP ICE JAMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...
RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS
USED FOR WATER SUPPLY AND POWER ARE USUALLY FULL OR NEARLY
SO...WHILE THOSE OPERATED PRIMARILY FOR FLOOD CONTROL ARE USUALLY
NEARLY EMPTY.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
IN THE NEAR TERM...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH A BRIEF RESPITE OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK OF THE 28TH. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 31 TO FEBRUARY 6 CALLS
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 3
MONTH SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL CALLS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR
NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
ANY TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE THIRD SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY...
FEBRUARY 7TH 2013. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEB
PAGE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.
&&

ESTIMATED BASIN AVERAGE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ON JANUARY 24TH 2013.
THIS DATA IS FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE
SENSING CENTER AT http://WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV

MOOSE RIVER ABOVE MCKEEVER...2.63 INCHES
SACANDAGA RIVER ABOVE HOPE...2.84 INCHES
SACANDAGA BASIN ABOVE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE...1.44 INCHES
INDIAN RIVER ABOVE INDIAN LAKE...3.40 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE NORTH CREEK...2.94 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE FORT EDWARD...0.16 INCHES
WEST CANADA CREEK ABOVE HINCKLEY...2.79 INCHES
MOHAWK RIVER ABOVE LITTLE FALLS...0.47 INCHES
EAST CANADA CREEK ABOVE EAST CREEK...1.97 INCHES
SCHOHARIE CREEK ABOVE PRATTSVILLE...0.48 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE ARLINGTON...1.12 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE BATTENVILLE...0.11 INCHES
WILLIAMS RIVER ABOVE ROCKINGHAM...1.28 INCHES
WALLOOMSAC RIVER ABOVE BENNINGTON...0.99 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE WILLIAMSTOWN...1.90 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE EAGLE BRIDGE...0.41 INCHES
ESOPUS CREEK ABOVE ASHOKAN RESERVOIR...0.44 INCHES
RONDOUT CREEK ABOVE RONDOUT RESERVOIR...1.04 INCHES
HOUSATONIC RIVER ABOVE GREAT BARRINGTON...1.58 INCHES

$$

BEW

[cycloneye]

The next big Winter Storm that may affect the New England region may occur by next weekend.But the models dont have a true consensus at this point so we may have to wait for more runs by them.

GFS



ECMWF

[cycloneye]

The NWS offices of New York and Boston are doing good long discussions about the upcomming two events.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY BEFORE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT GIVES WAY TO A COASTAL LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN TO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS TIME FRAME/ FIRST THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKING TO OUR S/E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SECOND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND.

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN MAINLY AS RAIN WITH A
RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TO GET STARTED...HOWEVER WITH WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S...EXPECT RAPID COOLING AS THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS...AND WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW BY EVENING.

12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW - MAINLY
BECAUSE IT NOW HAS A MORE REASONABLE LOW PLACEMENT COMPARED TO ITS
500 AND 700 HPA FEATURES COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF - WHICH HAD ITS
SURFACE LOW TO FAR TO THE S/E COMPARED TO ITS UPPER AIR FEATURES.
THE 12Z NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER BY AROUND 50M WITH THE STRENGTH OF
ITS 500 HPA TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DO NOT BUY INTO ITS QPF.
THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT ALOFT THE SOLUTIONS AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...ITS AT THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WHERE THE DIFFERENCES LIE. NOTING THAT MOST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO
BE TENDING TOWARDS ONE LIKE THE 12Z GFS...HAVE USED IT AS THE
GENERAL BASIS FOR THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE KNOWN PROGRESSIVE BIAS TO THE
MODEL...HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER FAR E
ZONES.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAX/MAX GUIDANCE WET BULB TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT - UNDER
CUTTING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES. AS A RESULT - WITH NO WARM LAYER FORECAST
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW FORECASTING A GENERAL 3-6 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE TRI-STATE -
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT. THIS
IS SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE AT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW FALL IS NOT AT 30% - SO WILL NOT BE MENTIONING THIS STORM
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO GET STARTED OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SW FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
APPEARS MOST SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS FAR ENOUGH TO THE N THURSDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY...THEN IS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN.

ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DO NOT SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE AREA - WHILE THE
GFS/CMC-GLOBAL/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARGUE FOR A COASTAL LOW.
FOR NOW HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL WHICH
ONE OF THE TWO COULD BE ULTIMATELY MORE CORRECT. SO A VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD CROSS THE REGION...THEN HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR ANY COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA. GIVEN THE FORECAST
TRACK TO THE S/E OF LONG ISLAND AND BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW - CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY P-TYPE
ISSUES - ONLY SNOW AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IT IS TO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON EVEN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY WINTER STORM WE MIGHT HAVE
THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/HPC
GUIDANCE...BLENDING IN NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLDER...BLUSTERY BUT DRY WEATHER TUE INTO WED. A QUICK
MOVING COASTAL STORM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY S OF THE
MASS PIKE WED NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* LIGHT TO MDT SNOWFALL PSBL WED NIGHT MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE
* A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM PSBL THIS WEEKEND BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
* BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY

OVERVIEW...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEAN
TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. AS SUCH THERE IS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING STRENGTH AND INTERACTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WHICH
PLAYS HAVOC WITH POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORM. THERE ARE TWO POTENTIAL
SNOW EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST COMES WED NIGHT WITH FAST
MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
FAR N THE MOISTURE WILL GET INTO SNE. THE SECOND AND POTENTIALLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD IS
QUITE HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. ECMWF DEVELOPS STORM TOO FAR OFFSHORE WHILE
GFS/UKMET/GGEM ARE MORE OF A DIRECT HIT. EC ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO
SUPPORTS THE OFFSHORE TRACK. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON WHICH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE MAIN PLAYER. ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE ON SAT WHICH DOESNT ALLOW SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF TO AMPLIFY IN TIME. GFS/UKMET HAVE WEAKER
INITIAL WAVE AND PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH
AMPLIFIES CLOSER TO THE COAST. AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE REALLY IS
NO WAY WE CAN DISCOUNT ANY SOLUTION SO WE WILL KEEP CHC SNOW FOR
NOW.

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRES SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE S LATE IN THE DAY. WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. USED
BIAS CORRECTED MODEL TEMPS FOR MAXES...WHICH GIVES MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR N MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS INTO SNE.
NAM IS MOST ROBUST AND SUGGEST LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COAST BUT IS ALSO AN OUTLIER. WE THINK IT IS AMPLIFYING THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TOO MUCH. ECMWF IS FURTHEST S WITH JUST A
COASTAL GRAZER. GFS WAS A DECENT COMPROMISE AND WE LEANED TOWARDS
ITS QPF AS A BASIS FOR OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST. PTYPE ALL SNOW EXCEPT
POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR ACK. THIS SNOW EVENT WILL
BE MAINLY WED NIGHT WITH SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE CAPE BY EARLY THU.
MAINLY A DRY DAY ON THU. CURRENT THINKING IS A 2-4" SNOWFALL ACROSS
NE CT...RI AND SE MA DECREASING TO LESS THAN AN INCH NORTH OF THE
PIKE. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT VERY HIGH AND FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO
FURTHER MODIFICATIONS.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...
MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THEN LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND DEPENDING
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY WHILE GFS/UKMET HAVE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WE HAVE CHC POPS FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND EXPECT FUTURE CHANGES.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest forecast for this weekends nor'easter. Confidence is low because of the spread in the models.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. A STRONGER OCEAN STORM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF IT LIKELY NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS
THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DECENT SNOWGROWTH/FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ALONG WITH SOME NEGATIVE EPV. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR. FEEL MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE AN
INCH OR TWO FROM THIS BAND. ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A NARROW BAND WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED.

ACROSS THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST THE
SNOWGROWTH/FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AND ARRIVES A BIT LATER. IN
FACT...PRECIP TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE RAIN ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. EITHER WAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATION
ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING GOING TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION FROM LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW
PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN ON THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY
LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SIGNIFICANT MODELS SPREAD. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OUT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THE MAIN ISSUE THAT NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IS HOW QUICKLY THIS
OCCURS AND WHERE IT HAPPENS. THE GFS MODELS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN QUICKLY BOMBING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES TO THE COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE COLD CONVEYER BELT SLAMMING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH HEAVY SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE IT DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE
HAS A TRACK FURTHER EAST.

ALL IN ALL...GIVEN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
GFS TOOK THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
FEEL THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AS ONE WORKS EAST TOWARDS THE COAST.
WE DO THINK THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS AND/OR
STRONG WINDS/VERY POOR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE STORM
TRACKS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS
REGION. IN ADDITION...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING STRONG WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO THIS
REGION. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TECHNICALLY FALLS BELOW
CRITERIA...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE IS A PERIOD OF NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE WET IN THIS REGION SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS/POWER OUTAGES WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. WE FELT ALL THESE CONDITIONS
WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD
AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET A BIT LONGER WITH SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BOMB OUT. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IF THE STORM TRENDS FURTHER
WEST AND BOMBS OUT EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXPAND WINTER STORM WATCHES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FURTHER EAST. IF THE TREND IS FURTHER
EAST...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE LEFT WITH AN INCH OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

Compared to yesterday,the Boston NWS upped the snowfall totals.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
531 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING OCEAN STORM WILL PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION. BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
THREAT FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER RETURNS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS E MA AND RI THIS AFTERNOON...
EXTENDING FROM S NJ/DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 21Z. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING IN THE LOWER-MID 30S SO...EVEN THOUGH THE PRECIP THAT HAS
BEEN FALLING HAS BEEN MAINLY SNOW...NOT MUCH IS STICKING TO THE
GROUND. HAVE NOTED VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2SM AT KEWB WITH A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW MOVING THROUGH...BETWEEN KTAN...KPYM AND KEWB AS SEEN
ON 88D RADAR. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL START TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z OP RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GGEM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN APPEARED TO BE AN EXTREME
OUTLIER AND THE NAM WAS TOO FAR OFFSHORE. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND
OF THE 00Z EC /WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE 12Z RUN AND HAS SHOWING VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY/...GGEM AND UKMET ALONG WITH THE SREF MEANS.

DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS WITH PRES FALLS ON
ORDER OF 12 TO 15 HPA IN 6 HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BIG
QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST WAS HOW FAR BACK THE SNOW SHIELD WOULD
SPREAD CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY MEAN THE BEST BANDING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE EITHER ALONG THE S COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE.

MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH DECENT QPF ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS E MA...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS AT 1/2 TO 1 INCH...TRAILING BACK TO LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
ACROSS WESTERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL WITH A MAINLY N WIND HELPING DRAIN
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SO...SWE AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT...CREATING MORE OF A FLUFF FACTOR. EARLY ON...THOUGH...
WILL HAVE RATHER LOW SWE AMOUNTS /ON ORDER OF 8:1 RATIO/ BEFORE
TEMPS START TO FALL. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH DOWNED
BRANCHES/SMALL TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES MAINLY ACROSS SE MA.

ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP TO
THE N AND NW OF THE CENTER. THINK THAT WE MAY GET ONE OR
TWO...LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE BEST
DEFORMATION SETS UP.

SO...CONSIDERING ALL FACTORS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER
STORM WARNING BACK TO THE W TO INCLUDE E COASTAL AND SE MA AND ALL
OF RI. WE ALSO PUT UP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR S CENTRAL
NH/CENTRAL MA INTO NE CT. FEEL THERE WILL BE A PRETTY SHARP PRECIP
CUTOFF SOMEWHERE EITHER ACROSS W WORCESTER COUNTY OR JUST OVER THE
WESTERN WORCESTER COUNTY LINE. RATHER DRY AIR IS WORKING INTO THAT
REGION AND...BEING FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST MOISTURE FEED AND GOOD
DRY AIR WORKING IN...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAKE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL THERE.

LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH/HOUR SNOWS...
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF ANY SNOW BANDS FORM.

ALSO EXPECT N WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ISSUED HIGH
WINDS WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
WARNING ON CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD STARTING
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO
THE 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE LOW PASSES WELL E OF THE CAPE HEADING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
SUNDAY...IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN CAUSING A VERY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT. WILL SEE STRONGEST WINDS DURING SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 25-40 KT. MAY SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND
WARNINGS AREAS...WHILE IT WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CT VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BIG QUESTION FOR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL BE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS.
AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT THE VSBYS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1/4 MILE...
SO OPTED TO NOT PUT A BLIZZARD WARNING OUT...FOR NOW.

WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S...EXCEPT AROUND 30 ON THE OUTER CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONG WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILLS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 10.

[cycloneye]

Maybe the last big nor'easter this winter. Is still days away so changes can occur in the models but so far this may not go to New England but only clip the southern part so stay tuned.

[cycloneye]

It looks more and more that this next big one will miss New England.

[cycloneye]

It looks like southern New England will have a winter storm to deal with after all.

New York NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
537 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND REMAINS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND APPROACHING STORM
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED LIFT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD MORNING
AS LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW INLAND
AND RAIN...MAYBE RAIN AND SNOW AT THE COAST.

LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV AND BLENDED THE ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TODAY/TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPLEXITY WITH THE FORECAST WED INTO THURS ON HANDLING PCPN TYPE
AND AMOUNTS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MID DAY WED. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW AND HOW
FAR IT PUSHES NORTH AS WELL AS THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
ACCOMPANYING CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE DEPARTING VORT MAX OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC SEEMS LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH
THE CLOSED LOW NOW A BIT SLOWER IN APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST. 00Z
NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST PCPN AMTS FOR THE TRI-STATE
REGION WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH STILL KEEPING THE ECMWF A BIT TO THE SOUTH.
OVERALL THOUGH...SOLUTIONS ARE EDGING FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WITH
PCPN LIKELY NOW ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD EVOLVE AROUND WINDS...PCPN AMTS...AND
COASTAL FLOODING THREATS. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS...EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY WED WITH LLJ SETTING
UP ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION. WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS EXPECTED
BY 00Z THURS...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH. 00Z NAM A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
WINDS...PRODUCING 70 KTS...WITH THE OTHER MODELS REMAINING SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS. HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE BECOMES NEAR
ISOTHERMAL OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING THE SURFACE...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER...YET STILL
STRONG SOLUTION...BLENDING THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. WIND ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE NYC METRO
AREA AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS ALSO A CHC THAT HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...MAINLY EASTERN LI AND SE CORNER OF
CT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WIND STRENGTHS...HAVE HELD
OFF FROM ANY ISSUANCE OF PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE STRONG
WINDS TO LAST INTO THURS...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
BY THURS NIGHT.

PCPN AMTS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING THE PCPN IN TILL WED
AFTN...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR WED MORNING...WITH ANY
PCPN OCCURRING THIS TIME BEING LIGHT IN NATURE...AND GENERALLY RAIN
AT THE COAST AND SNOW INLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODELS DOESN/T PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT...WITH A GREAT SPREAD ON QPF
TOTALS FROM 00Z THURS BASICALLY UNTIL 00Z FRI. BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...CHOSE TO NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WENT WITH A HPC/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST
BLEND. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMTS OVER EASTERN LI/SE CT AND THE
LOWEST AMTS OVER INTERIOR HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ONE THING THE MODELS
CAN AGREE UPON IS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z THURS.

PCPN TYPE...WITH HIGH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 40S
WED...BASICALLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN OVER
INTERIOR REGIONS DURING THE DAY WED. STILL EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW WED EVENING OVER INTERIOR REGIONS...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
THEN SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND ALL AREAS HAVING A
PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BY EARLY THURS MORNING. WITH THE PCPN
ONGOING...CHOSE TO SIDE CLOSER TO WET BULB TEMPS...WHICH HELPED
BRING TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DESPITE THE LOWERING...THE
HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO CORRESPOND MORE IN WITH THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...MINIMIZING SNOWFALL TOTALS AT THIS TIME. IF THE TEMPS CAN
COOL AT A QUICKER RATE...OR IF THE HEAVIEST PCPN DELAYS 3-4
HOURS...WE COULD SEE MUCH HIGHER SF AMTS. AT THIS TIME...AM
GENERALLY THINKING 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES DO
INDICATE WE SHOULD EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW EVENT...WITH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF SLEET MIXING IN. DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE PCPN LINGERING LONGER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURS MORNING...BUT
A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z ACROSS MOST AREAS.

Boston NWS


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A STRONG OCEAN STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA...WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. COASTAL FLOODING AND
DANGEROUS SEAS ARE THREAT AS WELL.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY WET SNOW RISK FOR PARTS OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU NGT
* COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION & DANGEROUS SEAS LIKELY
* DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER ENOUGH SPREAD FOR A VERY DIFFICULT
FORECAST WED THROUGH FRI REGARDING OCEAN STORM. TWO MODEL CAMPS
HERE WITH DOMESTIC MODELS /GFS-NAM/ FARTHER NORTH-CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH VERY HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
IN FACT THE GFS HAS OVER 7 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MA! THE NAM HAS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. THIS FARTHER NORTH
SOLUTION IS ALSO WARMER ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS
/ECMWF-UKMET-GGEM AND NOW THE 03Z SREF/ ARE MORE
SUPPRESSED/OFFSHORE WITH HEAVY QPF CONFINED TO RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA. HOWEVER THIS FARTHER/OFSHR SOLUTION IS COLDER WITH THE RISK
FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NE CT- RI AND EASTERN MA!

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE
REX- BLOCK OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. NOW DESPITE DOMESTIC
MODEL SIMULATIONS SAYING EXCESSIVE QPF FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PATTERN RECOGNITION AND AMPLITUDE OF BLOCK PATTERN
INDICATES A RED FLAG FOR A MORE SUPPRESSED/OFSHR/COLDER SOLUTION
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND GGEM. THIS SOLUTION PLACES A
SHARP QPF GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO NE MA. THUS A SOUTHEAST
SHIFT OF 50-75 MILE PLACES THE HEAVY QPF GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
HENCE BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE.

NO TWO EVENTS ARE IDENTICAL BUT THIS LOOKS A LOT LIKE 10 FEB 2010
SNOW BUST. DESPITE THIS OCEAN STORM EVOLVING INTO A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION/FIRE HOSE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH NEW ENGLAND...ABOUT 36N LATITUDE! THUS
HEAVIEST PERSISTENT BANDED QPF SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET CONFINE HEAVY QPF
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDL-ORH-MHT...WHICH FITS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN. STAKES ARE ALWAYS HIGH WHENEVER SHARP QPF AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA.

GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND STRENGTH OF BLOCK WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE SUPPRESSED/COLDER UKMET/ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ECENS.
THIS FOCUSES THE HEAVY SNOW /6-12 INCHES POSSIBLY HIGHER/ THREAT
OVER NE CT-RI AND EASTERN MA.

HOWEVER GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE REMAINS LARGE WE CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISMISS A WARMER AND WETTER EVENT PER GFS/NAM/GEFS AND
ALSO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WITH HEAVY QPF JUST SWIPING THE COAST.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND TIME RANGE HERE WE NEED TO KEEP ALL THREE
POSSIBILITIES IN PLAY WITH PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE
COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION ALONG WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW
SCENARIO...TO LOWER PROBABILITIES OF A WARMER/WETTER EVENT.

DEFINITELY CONCERNED REGARDING THE COLDER SOLUTION WITH HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE POPULATED I-95 CORRIDOR OF RI AND EASTERN MA.
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DOWN TOWARD CAPE COD GIVEN MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSE A RISK FOR
POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR
A 4TH-5TH PERIOD WATCH. THUS STILL SOME TIME TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT
THREAT/RISK AREAS. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACK WELL SOUTH OF 40N!