New England Winter 2012-2013

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Re: 2012-2013 New England Winter=Will Sandy go to NE?

#41 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:The bend to the left is more pronounced with the latest runs by the models. It looks almost inevitable that New England will experiment a strong system. The question is if there will be enough cold air to trigger snow.


I don't want any snow, we had a few sloppy inches from the nor'easter last Halloween, at least not yet. :spam:

If this monster pans out, I'm going to call it the 'Halloween Horror'.
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#42 Postby tomboudreau » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:51 pm

This is an interesting write up from the State College office concerning the system. Ive only cut out the basically Sunday night through Wednesday period of their discussion

Code: Select all

00Z-12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TWD
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION TO SANDY AND IT`S
EVENTUAL CAPTURE BY THE DEEPENING/EVENTUAL NEG TILT LARGE SCALE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

NUMEROUS...AND EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS ELEMENTS...NAMELY 500 HT...
MSLP...EASTERLY LLVL WIND...PRECIP AND OMINOUS PLUMES OF HEAVY SNOW
/ACROSS THE WESTERN PA MTNS/ HIGHLIGHT THE 12Z GEFS IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS SANDY DISPLAYS A CLASSIC FUJIWARA TRACK AND LIKELY GETS
CAPTURED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS WHERE AND WHEN THIS PHASING TAKES
PLACE...AND ITS ULTIMATE IMPACT ON THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN/SNOWFALL...AND WIND IN OUR CWA. FOR EXAMPLE THE GEFS PLUMES FOR
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS REGION FAVOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A MEAN OF 1.4 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT...AND SEVERAL
BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES OF LEQ. IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT UNLIKE SOME
SIMILAR LATE SEASON STORMS...SUCH AS THE RECENT LATE APRIL 2012
STORM /THAT GAVE 1-2 FEET OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE LAURELS /AND OPENED
THE SEVEN SPRINGS SKI AREA FOR AN UNPRECEDENTED/RECORD LATE DAY OF
SPRING SKIING ON NATURAL SNOW/ THIS ONE WILL BE WORKING WITH A MUCH
LOWER SUN ANGLE THAT/S SIMILAR TO EARLY FEB RATHER THAN LATE SUMMER
SUCH AS THE LATE APRIL STORM.THEREFORE...MORE ACCUM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH AMPLE SNOWFALL RATES.

ALTHOUGH ANALOGIES IN WEATHER RARELY WORK OUT TO MATCH SOME SPECIFIC
ASPECTS OF PAST/HISTORICAL STORMS...SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CAN BE
GREATLY HEIGHTENED FOR THE HOST OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
THAT COULD OCCUR.

IN THIS CASE...POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS AND GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW/WIND ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

THE 12Z EURO CONTINUES TO HAVE SANDY CAPTURED THE QUICKEST OF ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE - MONDAY MORNING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF
NC...AND DRIVES THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS/HIGH IMPACT STORM
NWWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA.

THE 12Z GEFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER WEST TWD THE EC SOLN...BUT
WAITS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS LONGER TO MERGE THE TWO SYSTEMS EAST OF NEW
JERSEY. THE GEFS THEN DRIVES THE -6 SIGMA /A ONE IN 30-40 YEAR LOW
PRESSURE THAT INTENSE AT THAT LATITUDE/ ALMOST STRAIGHT WWD ACROSS
NJ AND PENN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

AGAIN...THE 00Z/12Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND EAST TRACK WITH
SANDY...AND LATEST MODEL TO MERGE THE DEEP CONTINENTAL TROUGH WITH
THE TROPICAL/EXTRA-TROPICAL SANDY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MODEL
SOLUTION DOESN`T PAINT AS MUCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA...AMPLE/DEEP
COLD AIR AND A WELL-ALIGNED DEEP NW FETCH OFF THE GLAKES STILL MEANS
PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LOCATION OF THE SUB-5340DM 500 MB LOW TRACK ON BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS OF WESTERN PENN
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN THE NCENT MTNS OF
PENN LATER ON MONDAY - TUESDAY.

THE EFFECTS OF THIS POTENTIALLY HISTORIC NE U.S. STORM GRADUALLY
WANE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL...MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MTN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.
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#43 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:42 am

This is going to get insane in a hurry. "Halloween Horror" might be a good name.
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Re: 2012-2013 New England Winter=Will Sandy go to NE?

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:40 pm

NWS Taunton, MA
Zone Forecast: Coastal Waters East of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (ANZ250) Mobile Weather Information
Last Update: 117 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012


Hazardous marine condition(s):

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Synopsis...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL THEN INTERACT WITH SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS. THE STRONGEST IMPACT APPEARS TO BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SEAS MAY EXCEED 25 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE. MARINERS ARE URGED TO RETURN TO PORT BY SATURDAY AND PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!

FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEYOND THE 24-36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...PLEASE VISIT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND FOLLOW THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOKS LINK AT THE TOP OF THE BLUE BAR ON THE LEFT.
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013=Watching Hurricane Sandy

#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:52 pm

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012


...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...


FINAL...

UPDATED THE TRACK OF SANDY TO FIT THE 15Z/25 NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TRACK THROUGH 5 DAY, WHICH DOVETAILS WELL INTO THE HYBRID
LOW POSITIONS THEREAFTER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. BOTH THE 12Z/25 GFS AND
GEM GLOBAL BRING THE LOW INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, WITH THE
ECMWF DIRECTING IT INTO THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE UPSHOT
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME- HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR
AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT, WITH HEAVY SNOWS
POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST.


CISCO
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013=Watching Hurricane Sandy

#46 Postby Nicko999 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:12 am

Oh boy... this is going to be interesting!!! :lol:
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013=Watching Hurricane Sandy

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:46 am

The latest HPC discussion.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
952 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND INTERIOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE
CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR
THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL
REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT
WEST...THOUGH FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SEND AMPLE
ENERGY/HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH ISSUES
REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH.

MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK NOW BEST RESEMBLES THE
00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.

THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.


ROTH/SCHICHTEL
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013: Effects from Sandy

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:06 am

From NY NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH TO THE NORTH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
CURRENT TREND. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF TODAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTH AND SUBSIDENCE
LINGERS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST. A DECENT VORT MAX WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT ALONG WITH THE FRONT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT PCPN.
OTHER THAN THIS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...USING AN EQUAL BLEND OF
NAM/MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 00Z MON...BEGINNING
TO INTERACT WITH SANDY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A REX BLOCK
SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE BLOCKING OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING
SANDY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AS SANDY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUND
THE TROUGH...KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS PCPN FROM SANDY MOVES NORTH
AS WELL LATER SUNDAY.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW...ESP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS TREND WILL
THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. CONTINUED TO
USE A BLEND OF NAM/MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY. GENERAL OPERATION
MODELS ARE LINING UP BETTER WITH TIMING...BRINGING THE STORM IN
AROUND 00Z TUES...THOUGH WITH DISCREPANCIES OF ACTUAL LOCATION
BEING FROM DELMARVA UP TO LI. LATEST NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
TREND BRINGING THE STORM IN AROUND THE DELMARVA REGION...SO KEPT
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THIS THINKING.
THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TRANSITION INTO POST
TROPICAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IT HAS TO BE EMPHASIZED...THAT
ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL
BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING
WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

THE WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH
INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR
WINDS...THEY INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 30S ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST
APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION
OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL
FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
DEGREE OF IMPACT DUE TO THE STILL WIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE
LANDFALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA AND BUILDS WELL TO THE NORTH
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
STALL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION INCREASING TO 5 TO
10 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AND BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING IN SPEED LATE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KT DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE MODE OF CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERING
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AND
SCATTERING COULD OCCUR EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN
ADDITION...THE CIGS COULD BE OCCASIONALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 4KFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. -RA DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING NE
WINDS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50KT LIKELY. PERIODS OF +RA.
.WEDNESDAY...BREEZY WITH MVFR AND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE EAST...AND SEAS REACH 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LATER
SUNDAY ON ALL WATERS...THEN POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE
MONDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE
CONDITIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FURTHER MARINE PRODUCTS
AT THIS TIME.

SEAS WILL GREATLY INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG WINDS.
20-25 FT OCEAN SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A
RESULT...WITH 5 TO 10 FT SEAS ON THE SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT URBAN...SMALL
STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING EXISTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY FROM SANDY OR HER REMNANTS. UNCERTAINTY WITH HER TRACK
REMAINS BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SUNDAY EVENING...LASTING THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL COASTLINES.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED COASTAL
FLOOD EVENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING STARTING WITH THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE AND BECOMING
INCREASING LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD FOR SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS THE STRONGEST WINDS BEGIN AFFECTING
THE AREA. THEN THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SANDY WILL
DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AND WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING
AND POSSIBLE DAMAGE IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS.

HAND IN HAND WITH THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE INCREASINGLY HIGH
SURF BATTERING THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR BEACH EROSION...LOCALIZED WASHOVERS...AND DAMAGE
TO VULNERABLE SHORELINE STRUCTURES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS/NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SEARS/NV
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013: Effects from Sandy

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:25 pm

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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013: Effects from Sandy

#50 Postby Nicko999 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:25 pm

Well all we got was 74 km/h (47 mph) winds gusts yesterday. Today the wind calmed down, the clouds cleared, the sun reappeared and we had record breaking heat (70F). 8-)

We had some heavy downpours but other than that no rain from Sandy!
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013

#51 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:31 pm

It looks like a Nor'easter for Wednesday in the region with a mix of rain and snow. Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion.

Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013

#52 Postby angelwing » Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:50 pm

NO NO NO NO NO!!!! Please not now :(
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013

#53 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:43 pm

:crazyeyes: This is what Dr Masters posted at his blog of the ECMWF wind speeds. In this model they are between 40-45 mph.

Image

Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.
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2012 Nor'Easter First Week November MD-NJ-NY (NE USA)

#54 Postby itglobalsecure » Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:11 pm

Here's hoping the moderators can direct me, an interested newbie, to where on the web the models for these large winter storms are found. While the models are easy to find for events reported through the NHC, I've not located where these models are located. The link is not apparent through weather.gov (if they're even linked at all.)

It's really odd seeing these low pressure systems move up the coast and hover on or just beside Delmarva. I am near Dover, and manage to just escape the winds which go a little further north. But, boy, we get the rain.
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013 (Nor'easter for 11/7-9)

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:26 pm

Here are all the models that continue to show the big Nor"easter.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: 2012 Nor'Easter First Week November MD-NJ-NY (NE USA)

#56 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:29 pm

itglobalsecure wrote:Here's hoping the moderators can direct me, an interested newbie, to where on the web the models for these large winter storms are found. While the models are easy to find for events reported through the NHC, I've not located where these models are located. The link is not apparent through weather.gov (if they're even linked at all.)

It's really odd seeing these low pressure systems move up the coast and hover on or just beside Delmarva. I am near Dover, and manage to just escape the winds which go a little further north. But, boy, we get the rain.


This is the place to follow the big Nor'Easter.
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013: Models forecasting Nor'Easter

#57 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:35 pm

The 12z ECMWF is a bit stronger than in past runs.

Image

12z CMC is also stronger.

Image

12z GFS is also a tad stronger.

Image
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#58 Postby Hey Its Me » Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:52 pm

Stop the ride...I WANT OFF!!! :eek:
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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013: Nor'easter for Nov 8 thru 9

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:02 pm

Latest discussion of Nor'easter by Dr Jeff Masters.

Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with on Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the U.S. National Weather Service), are now in agreement on both the track and intensity of the storm. The storm will move off the coast of South Carolina/Georgia on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 2 - 3" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, intensifying into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 984 mb by Wednesday evening. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, is slower, predicting the Nor'easter's highest winds will begin affecting New Jersey on Wednesday night. The GFS model is about 12 hours faster, predicting the strongest winds will arrive on Wednesday morning. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts, accompanied by a swath of 2 - 3" of rain. The heaviest rains will likely fall over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm also has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England. The storm is still four days away, and four-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves. The surge and waves will potentially cause moderate to severe erosion on New Jersey coast, where Hurricane Sandy pulverized the protective beach dunes.


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Re: New England Winter 2012-2013: Nor'easter for Nov 7 thru 8

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:15 pm

Latest discussion of Nor'easter from the NJ NWS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF
THIS WEEKEND AND SETTLE TO OUR NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
NOR`EASTER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING BY CAPE COD ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DON`T FORGET TO `FALL BACK` AND TURN YOUR CLOCKS BACK AN HOUR
TONIGHT AS DAYLIGHT SAVINGS COMES TO AN END.

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIGHTEN UP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEY MAY LIGHTEN UP ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS
ALLOWING FROST DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. IF THE WINDS REMAIN HIGHER FOR
A LONGER PERIOD OVERNIGHT, THEN FROST MAY NOT FORM AT ALL.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN RESPECT TO FROST AND WE ONLY MAKE
MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
NOT YET BEEN DECLARED OVER.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS OF NW NEW JERSEY AND THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH SO AS TODAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT AND BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TO HEAT
UP A BIT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECOVERY RESCUE OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A HAMPERING IF
NOT RETROGRADING OF RESTORATION EFFORTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A LIKELY NOR`EASTER MOVES UP THE COAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (ESP
EAST) AS WELL AS MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEAR POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW INLAND SNOW WOULD NOT BE A SHOCKER.
PLEASE REFER TO OUR BRIEFING PACKAGE FOR MORE DETAILS. OUR WEB
SITE LINK REMAINS DEGRADED AND THE SUMMARY STATEMENT OF THE
BRIEFING PAGE CAN BE SEEN ON OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

WE WISH IT WAS DIFFERENT ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DEVASTATION
FROM SANDY, BUT THE DOUBLE TELECONNECTION PATTERN CHANGE SWITCH
OF THE NAO AND PNA SUPPORTS THE TRENDING MORE VIGOROUS NOR`EASTER
SOLUTION WE ARE NOW SEEING WITH ALL OF THE MODELS.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED EASTWARD FROM YESTERDAY AND THE GFS HAS
FINALLY SETTLED ON A MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT THAT IT STARTED WITH
THE 18Z RUN YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ARE
EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN, A CHARACTERISTIC WE ARE GLEANING OFF OF
ALL OF THE OTHER MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS. AT THIS JUNCTURE THIS IS A
NATURAL (LATER PHASING. MORE PROGRESSIVE) PLACEMENT OF LOWER
RESOLUTION MEMBERS. THE ECMWF PHASES SOONER AND THUS PROLONGS THE
ONSHORE FLOW LONGER AS THE LOW STALLS/SLOWS AT A LOWER LATITUDE. FOR
THE OUTSTANDING JOB THAT THE ECMWF DID WITH SANDY IN DAYS 3-7, THERE
WAS A LEFT OF TRACK BIAS ON SOME OF THE RUNS WITH SANDY. GIVEN WE
ARE STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY, WE HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST ACCURATE TRACK
COMBO FOR LAST WINTER (A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE)



LEADING INTO THE NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE COOLER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AWAY FROM URBAN
CENTERS AND THE COAST. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAVEATS WITH THE MIN TEMPS, THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. THE GRADIENT ALSO DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA. COUPLED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE, SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNIER MONDAY. AIR MASS
THOUGH IS QUITE CHILLY AND EVEN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50F.

IF SUNDAY NIGHT DOES NOT END THE GROWING SEASON, MONDAY NIGHT WOULD.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST ACROSS OUR CWA AND WITH RIDGING ALOFT,
THICKER CIRRUS SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN TIME. MIN TEMPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY AND A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE. MANY SUBFREEZING LOWS.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE INCREASING AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND OUR NOR`EASTER STARTS FORMING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WE
WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS BECAUSE OF THE ARRIVAL OF
THE CLOUDS.

IN GENERAL WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
AND WINDS FOR THE APPROACHING NOR`EASTER. THE GFS IS FASTER AND
COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA
WHICH IS TIED TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AT THE FRONT END AND POSSIBLY
SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING DURING THE EVENT. THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS THOUGH
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING AND WIND ADVISORY GUST LEVELS EXIST. EVEN IF ADVISORY LEVELS
ARE NOT MET ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE WINDY AND ANY COMPROMISED STRUCTURES,
TREES OR TREE LIMBS MIGHT BE DAMAGED FURTHER OR FALL.

AFTER THE NOR`EASTER PASSES, AT LEAST A BRIEF CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY COULD BE WINDY WITH LEFTOVER
PRECIPITATION IF THE SLOWER STALLING ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILDER WEATHER ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST, THE LATEST NAEFS AND GEFS IS
SHOWING MILDER WEATHER FOR THE ENSUING WEEK. WITH THE OUTLOOK NAO GOING
POSITIVE AND THE PNA GOING NEGATIVE, THIS WOULD ALSO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK BACK INTO CANADA. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS WILL BE A PATTERN
RELOAD OR LONGER CHANGE IN STORE.
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