SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013

[PTrackerLA]

Received 1"-1.5" Wednesday night and looking at another 3"+ Sunday-Tuesday. Latest GFS seems to indicate a decent freeze could be on tap by next weekend (possibly coldest temps of this winter.) We'll see!

[Kennethb]

Agree. We received 2.25 this week in that quiet night rain. Wish we could share it with you who need it. But we are in some type of pattern where for the past 10 years or so we have had drouthy type of conditions. This is the way it is supposed to be except it should be 40 degrees and rain not 60's and 70's. Just finished cutting the grass. Has some St Augstine grass that had never been bitten by the frost and is growing. Yes let's hope we can get a few more frosts and maybe a freeze to keep things in check until real spring is supposed to arrive.

[LaBreeze]

Received 1"-1.5" Wednesday night and looking at another 3"+ Sunday-Tuesday. Latest GFS seems to indicate a decent freeze could be on tap by next weekend (possibly coldest temps of this winter.) We'll see!

How cold are we talking PTrackerLA?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well we are in another flood watch thru Tuesday afternoon Looking like we could get upwards of another 6 inches between now and then. That would put us well over 20 inches so far this year

[NDG]

Send some of your rains over my way, I gotten only 1/2" rain since Jan 1st.

[vbhoutex]

FROPA in W Houston with temp down to 58.9f. So far only spits for precipitation at my location. Temp before the front was 67f. All of the precip we still need in the Houston metro is to our North. Kelly will probably take a lot of it too like she usually does.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Send some of your rains over my way, I gotten only 1/2" rain since Jan 1st.

Nothing to send your way. Looks like another big bust for south LA today especailly for heavy rains and severe storms. Received a quick .04" of rain a while ago and that was it. It all developed in MS and moving east into AL. Only a really narrow line of rain in sw LA moving this direction. Not that we need it but just kind of a pain when you cancel a days worth of plans because of weather and it never happens. Especially with all the Mardi festivities going on around here.

[LaBreeze]

Have not received a drop so far today - just quite windy. Most of the moisture went north of us - so it may be that the southeast part of LA doesn't get much either. Let the parades roll and the party continue!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep kind of ridiculous when you make plans to got to parades and such and everybody cancels due to forecasters calling for rain, rain, and more rain and of course never happens. Oh well you think we would be used to it by now.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's email for this morning.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be likely over the next 24-36 hours.

Weak frontal boundary which passed across the region yesterday has stalled just offshore overnight. A shallow dome of cool air is in place across the region with light N winds. Above the surface strong SW flow is pulling moisture over the top of this surface cold dome resulting in modest lift. Sub-tropical jet stream is anchored across the region and within this flow small disturbances are rippling through the flow resulting in enhanced lift. One such disturbance is currently crossing the area leading to decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Both Corpus and Lake Charles soundings show decent mid level instability this morning suggestive of elevate thunderstorms and this is being confirmed on the lightening data maps showing increasing lightening strikes over the region. A few storms could reach strong levels this morning with small hail and gusty winds.

Current shortwave aloft (disturbance) will move east of the region by late morning and a gradual downward trend in rainfall is expected this afternoon. It is interesting to note that some of the short range guidance does redevelop activity this afternoon across the area. A look at water vapor images upstream over Mexico does not reveal any shortwave that I can see in the upper level flow (not saying it is not there). Such patterns tend to produce rounds of rainfall about every 6-12 hours.

Other item which continues to be a problem along the coast is sea fog. As the weak boundary lifts slowly northward today, dewpoints will surge into the mid and upper 60’s over the coastal waters. As this warm air flows across the cool waters it will chill to saturation allowing dense sea fog to form. Think mainly the coastal locations will have the biggest issues with sea fog, but it could spread as far inland as Liberty to Pearland to Bay City this evening depending on how quickly the coastal front backs northward. Visibilities over the coastal waters and bays will average between .50 of and mile and 0.

Tonight into Tuesday much better rain chances are likely as the main upper level trough over the 4 corners area ejects eastward into the central plains. Strong lift will come to bear across the region late tonight through Tuesday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. A few of these storms could be on the strong side. Rain should end by midday Tuesday as the system progresses to our east and a colder/drier air mass sweeps into the region from the NW.

Rainfall amounts today-Tuesday will average .5 to 1.0 inches across the region with isolated totals up to 2.0 inches especially east of I-45.

Rest of the forecast from Tuesday evening onward looks cool and dry with surface high pressure in control (lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s). Stronger cold front looks to arrive late Friday and usher in a colder air mass for the weekend with temperatures possibly near freezing across some of our northern counties Saturday morning. GFS model is trying to generate some post frontal light precipitation, but this is not supported by other guidance and for now will leave a dry forecast for Friday night into Saturday.

[southerngale]

FROPA in W Houston with temp down to 58.9f. So far only spits for precipitation at my location. Temp before the front was 67f. All of the precip we still need in the Houston metro is to our North. Kelly will probably take a lot of it too like she usually does.

lol David - I don't mean to.
It's quite saturated over here and I wish I could share that with others further west.
Have you gotten more since then? There's been quite a bit of rain in the area after your message.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

[vbhoutex]

FROPA in W Houston with temp down to 58.9f. So far only spits for precipitation at my location. Temp before the front was 67f. All of the precip we still need in the Houston metro is to our North. Kelly will probably take a lot of it too like she usually does.

lol David - I don't mean to.
It's quite saturated over here and I wish I could share that with others further west.
Have you gotten more since then? There's been quite a bit of rain in the area after your message.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

If you call mist and drizzle rain, then yes we have gotten more since the initial post. We had a whopping 0.09" in the gauge when I emptied it this morning.

[Jagno]

I'll gladly send some of this rain to you. I've had a tractor, Ford F250, U-Haul trailer, 5th Wheel Camper and a cable bucket truck all sunken to the axles in my yard over the past two weeks. My beautiful lawn is now a muddy rutted swamp

[vbhoutex]

I'll gladly send some of this rain to you. I've had a tractor, Ford F250, U-Haul trailer, 5th Wheel Camper and a cable bucket truck all sunken to the axles in my yard over the past two weeks. My beautiful lawn is now a muddy rutted swamp

As dreary and damp as it is right now I would gladly take some of your rain. I measured a whopping 0.05" of rain in the last 24 hours. Some is better than none. It does keep the dust down. Currently 58f. If the warm front doesn't make it this far North that will be about all she wrote for high temps today. As I typed this it seemed to lighten up outside so maybe there is hope.

[Jagno]

vb, it's dismal, wet and dreary here as well. I really need some sunshine. We had just enough warmth to fool the plants into thinking its spring and my sinuses are giving me serious grief.

[vbhoutex]

vb, it's dismal, wet and dreary here as well. I really need some sunshine. We had just enough warmth to fool the plants into thinking its spring and my sinuses are giving me serious grief.

Been there doing that on the sinuses! I finally had to go to the doc to clear that up. The weather has turned beautiful here today even though it is cool. 43f for a low this am and now up to 50f. Sun is SHINING and the sky is almost cloudless. I'm sending that E towards you!! Looks like it will be downright COLD in the morning with lows in the 30s. Hope you feel better soon.

[vbhoutex]

We managed a somewhat surprising 33.8f low this morning at the house. Did not expect it to go that low, but apparently radiational cooling parameters were all aligned. Even had some light frost on the roofs. Past that it was a gorgeous day with a cloudless sky and plenty of sunshine. Tonight should be about 10 degrees warmer for the low.

[CajunMama]

Baseball season started tonight for my Ragin' Cajuns. It was too chilly!!!!!!!!!!

[vbhoutex]

Baseball season started tonight for my Ragin' Cajuns. It was too chilly!!!!!!!!!!

Definitely too chilly for baseball!! 36.4f here at the house this am. Not expecting to get out of the 50s today. Hoping for the predicted rain on Monday. We still need it here in Houston.

[JSDS]

It was way too chilly for my grandsons' soccer games this morning too!!! Even with a jacket and a blanket, I froze. It's very windy, and that's what made it so bad. Since it doesn't look like we will get any snow this year, I'm more than ready for the springtime temps to return.