SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013

[LaBreeze]

Nice day in Houston if you like waking up to rain and drizzle and 36f and dropping. Temp never went above that 36f all day long and finally settled between 34f and 36f. I call that RAW when there is also a Northerly breeze with it. Oh, if anyone has seen a bright orb in the sky, we are missing one in SE TX.

You fellows are a strange lot. For months and months (or should I say years) you've been praying for rain and now you're getting it yet you are complaining even more!!!

I never prayed for rain - I know my neighbors in Texas needed it badly, but not here.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Nice day in Houston if you like waking up to rain and drizzle and 36f and dropping. Temp never went above that 36f all day long and finally settled between 34f and 36f. I call that RAW when there is also a Northerly breeze with it. Oh, if anyone has seen a bright orb in the sky, we are missing one in SE TX.

You fellows are a strange lot. For months and months (or should I say years) you've been praying for rain and now you're getting it yet you are complaining even more!!!

I never prayed for rain - I know my neighbors in Texas needed it badly, but not here.

Oooooops correction.....Vbhoutex you are a strange one. For months and months (or should I say years) you've been praying for rain and now you're getting it yet you are complaining even more!!!

[southerngale]

Years, really? While we did have a bad drought last year, we spend more time in a "surplus" than we do needing rain, dealing with more flood events than droughts. We're in a very wet area of the U.S., usually getting plenty of rain.

Also, when one needs rain, they might pray for it. But if they get too much of it, just because they previously prayed for it, that shouldn't mean they can't comment that they don't need it anymore.

[PTrackerLA]

Lafayette went from 35" in 2011 (extreme drought and 2nd driest year ever) to 67" in 2012 (a few inches above normal) to between over 10" - 12"+ just since Jan 1 of this year. I've personally had over a foot at my house and nearly 20" of rain in the past 45 days! Enough is enough for now!

[vbhoutex]

Oooooops correction.....Vbhoutex you are a strange one. For months and months (or should I say years) you've been praying for rain and now you're getting it yet you are complaining even more!!!

I will NEVER deny being a "strange one"! Here in Houston we have needed more rain than we have been getting ever since Hurricane Ike. We have been in drought, at least in the Houston metro area, more than we have been in surplus, thus the prayers. My complaint is not about the rain, but the RAWNESS of the combination of the rain with the cold. Of course I would be much happier if I had snow instead of rain at these temperatures. Of course if that were the case then I would have to complain about having to shovel the snow. Yes, I do want to "have my cake and eat it too!!"
Meanwhile we had a heat wave today with a high of 52f and sun or whatever that bright orb in the sky was all day long. Expecting 30f in the am.

[vbhoutex]

28f this morning at the house. That is the coldest so far this Winter. Going to "warm up" to the mid 50s today with plenty of bright orb in the sky rays to go with it. Models seem to have become consistent in agreeing that the "arctic" outbreak will only be a back door event for TX so ??? for next week. I say that because models are also notoriously lousy at handling dense polar air and how it moves. Not about to predict one way or the other right now as to what we will see, if anything unusual, with the next "arctic outbreak" for TX. Meanwhile I am going to enjoy the

[Jagno]

I am soooooooooooooo glad to see the sun. Of course I would have liked to have some heat to go with those clear skies last night as my heat pump went out. Thank God for fireplaces. I'm even more thankful that the repairman is here as I type this to fix the unit. I'm certainly hoping that the north winds and sunshine will dry out some of this standing water quickly.

[vbhoutex]

Where did everyone go? Where is the rest of the world? Pea soup fog in Houston this morning @ 45f. At best visibility at my house is 300'. If you can delay travel till the fog begins to lift. Heaviest fog I have seen here in many years.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Where's your kilt vbhoutex???

Those Eastern Canadian Scots are rather soft.

[vbhoutex]

Where's your kilt vbhoutex???

Those Eastern Canadian Scots are rather soft.

I didn't know you had that picture!! J/K I should have one since I am Scottish in heritage. Not sure I would ski with a kilt considering... Might be a just a mite too cold if you get my drift. Never mind, he does have that covered.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Where's your kilt vbhoutex???

Those Eastern Canadian Scots are rather soft.

I didn't know you had that picture!! J/K I should have one since I am Scottish in heritage. Not sure I would ski with a kilt considering... Might be a just a mite too cold if you get my drift. Never mind, he does have that covered.

He can't be a highlander!

No its your avatar that you used to put up for Robbie's day that I'm wondering about. And whilst wearing it you can complain again about the raw chilling weather your getting (if not now sometime soon).

[CajunMama]

If it doesn't get cooler I'm gonna have to go back to the other forum to discuss the weather!!! (Not that I'm disliking this wonderful weather!)

[vbhoutex]

If it doesn't get cooler I'm gonna have to go back to the other forum to discuss the weather!!! (Not that I'm disliking this wonderful weather!)

I hear ya!! Sitting here in shorts and a t-shirt. High so far today is 79f. Hoping for a little "relief" around Wednesday/Thursday with a cold front coming through.

[Jagno]

I did post in the other thread because it was just down right wrong to post about upper 70's in a Winter Weather Thread. LOL

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's morning email.

Fairly active WSW to SW flow aloft will bring a few chances of rainfall to the region this week in an overall unsettled pattern.

Patchy dense fog across portions of the area is lifting into more of a low deck of stratus clouds, except near the coast and in the bays where thicker sea fog is currently in place. Will continue to deal with the threat for periods of dense sea fog along the coast for the next 24 hours as fairly light to moderate winds combined with warm moist air flowing over the cooler nearshore waters promotes fog development. SE TX will be in between systems today with only a few scattered showers possible mainly E of I-45 and south of I-10.

Attention will focus on the Wednesday afternoon and overnight period as a fairly strong short wave trough in the SW flow aloft moves out of Mexico and into SW and then SC TX on Wednesday and Wednesday afternoon. Low level moisture is already increased over the area in response to a weak short wave passage yesterday afternoon which was able to squeeze out a few fast moving showers. This next incoming system appears more well defined and stronger in the model guidance with both the global and shorter term meso models showing a fair amount of upstream thunderstorms development on Wednesday late morning into the early afternoon over the Rio Grande plains into SC TX and then spreading ESE into the coastal bend and SE TX during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. While the low level flow backs to the ESE enhancing the low level shear late Wednesday, the amount of available instability appears to be lacking for a significant severe weather threat. Additionally clouds will hamper early day heating and forecast soundings only show a small amount of instability through the air column. For now, this looks like an isolated severe weather threat mainly south of I-10, but any modest heating on Wednesday could result in SPC upgrading parts of the area into a slight risk.

Of greater importance is the threat for heavy rainfall mainly over the southern ½ of the region Wednesday-Wednesday night. Short term meso models are suggestive of a couple of bands of training convection over SE TX during this period as the lift from the short wave combines with the southerly low level jet and copious Gulf moisture. Moisture levels will be high with PWS of 1.5 inches but not excessive. Meso models are attempting to develop activity along some sort of boundary near the coast…could be a weak coastal front or air mass change zone due to more surface heating over S TX on Wednesday. I will follow along with the TX TECH WRF model which did well with the early Jan 2013 rainfall event and this model places at least of couple of lines of thunderstorms across the area well into Wednesday night. South of I-10 rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible with isolated amounts of 3 inches while north of I-10 amounts will generally average .5 to 1 inch. Should see rains come to an end Thursday morning…but there may be some left over showers especially near the coast early before drier air arrives from the west.

Area will be dry from Thursday afternoon-Friday ahead of a major SW US storm system that begins to approach the plains over the weekend. Moist southerly flow begins on Saturday, but minus any undetected disturbances in the upper level flow Saturday should be a fairly dry day. With moisture increasing off the Gulf, will throw in a 20% rain chance for any streamer showers on Saturday. Rain chances begin to increase Sunday-Monday as increasing lift from the large storm system spreads into the plains. Still some timing and thermodynamic uncertainties in the forecast for this system in terms of potential capping and severe weather parameters.

[southerngale]

I picked up nearly 2 inches last night as a slow moving storm intensified as it traveled east across the area, and then a little more this morning. It looks like decent chances the next few days as well. It sure has been wet lately!

Oh, and I can't wait for spring! These warm days here and there are teasing me.

[vbhoutex]

I only got 0.10"! I'm hoping for more from this next system. I think someone has set up a rain generator to the East of Houston. You aren't in drought but we are.

[southerngale]

Oh wow... I didn't realize y'all were still in a mild drought. It's quite saturated over here. What a difference a few miles makes.

[Jagno]

We had a nice rain shower today also. Unfortunately according to Jeff my location well south of I-10 will be getting alot more of the liquid sunshine this evening and night. I was really hoping to get this lawn (swamp) mowed at some point this week but it's looking less likely.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well after about a week of dry weather and the ground finally able to dry out last weekend we got another inch and half of rain Wednesday night and now Mardi gras weekend looks to be a washout with high rain chances from Sunday thru Tuesday with slight chance of severe weather as well. Already talking about having to issue flash flood watches tomorrow. Talk is of front stalling over our area with a gulf low moving right over us. Wonder if the potential is there for 10+ inches of rain like we saw a couple weeks ago.