NOAA 2012-2013 Winter Outlook

[cycloneye]

I didn't know where to put this NOAA Winter Outlook but I think the best thing to do in this case is to make a new thread as this outlook is for all the areas that are represented in the different topics on the forum.

Text discussion at link below.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus05.html

[Ntxw]

For Sept and so far Oct NOAA didn't have the idea right in terms of temperatures. I'm not sure which modelling/forecasting methods they use for these advanced months so I'm puzzled how they come up with the solution. They have been right about the core warmth in the inter-mountain west though. A cold PDO would be cold west, warm PDO cold east.

This is the Aug-Oct forecast from July



Data of the period to current date, Almost the complete opposite.



However they do state this

Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years.

So I will give them the benefit of the doubt due to the difficult nature it will be to forecast.

Wxman57 will love this forecast

Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.

[wxman57]

Yes, my favorite quote from the new outlook was: "Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas". On the other hand, the JMA forecast was for significantly colder across TX. In this case, I think I'll "go-American"!

Here's another link that's a bit easier to read than the ALL-CAPS version:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/18/f ... -forecast/

[Ntxw]

Hmm maybe the IRI models package is where they get it from? Seems awfully close. All the other months looks to mirror their forecast too.



http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... ched=false

[cycloneye]

This is Dr Jeff Masters discussion of the effects of AO and NAO on the 2012-2013 Winter.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?

While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.

[Stephanie]

Flip a coin. I don't recall the forecast for the winter of 2009 - 2010 was anywhere close to how it ended up being. As Jeff Masters says, they won't be able to predict what the pattern will be up until 2 weeks before it occurs. I doubt that anyone would've seen the double negative coming, but that's just my opinion.

I'll take equal chances though for my winter.

[Ntxw]

I didn't know where to put this NOAA Winter Outlook but I think the best thing to do in this case is to make a new thread as this outlook is for all the areas that are represented in the different topics on the forum.

Text discussion at link below.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... xus05.html

_______________________________________________________________________________

Here is the final verdict for DJF. Warm east cooler west, cold PDO analogs won out. Core of the warmth was in the Mississippi Valley and coldest was the central and southern Rockies.

[BigB0882]

So, in other words, they were really wrong? lol