Post-Sandy Nor'easter - November 7-8

#1 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 6:42 pm

Created a new threat for this coming storm. Hope it misses out to sea, but the chances are low. If there are any chances of this going tropical, it can be moved there.

#2 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 6:51 pm

I'm supposed to final out of the Army Thursday, and then fly home to Kentucky Friday...Fort Drum doesn't want me to escape!!!

Wednesday Night:
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday:
Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night:
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday:
Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

If Thursday's highs drop just a few degrees, it could be all snow, and depending on how much falls, that could adversely impact my plans.

#3 Postby **angelwing** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:07 pm

TY for the thread, still dealing with the after effects here and have to keep updated on this threat

Hope u get home soon!!!

#4 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:24 pm

The big unknowns: intensity and location. The CMC I believe bombed it all the way to about 960mb then hooked it west - that would definitely be a worst-case scenario.

#5 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:36 pm

It isn't the first time Fort Drum has tried to throw a wrench into my plans, but hopefully it will be the last time!

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:36 pm

12Z Euro even stronger than 00Z - 40-50 kt winds (with higher gusts) into coastal NJ and Long Island Wednesday afternoon/evening. Could cause tides 3-4 ft above normal and additional power outages over a large area.

#7 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 12:53 am

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro even stronger than 00Z - 40-50 kt winds (with higher gusts) into coastal NJ and Long Island Wednesday afternoon/evening. Could cause tides 3-4 ft above normal and additional power outages over a large area.

That would be a surge of about 8 feet into the Battery?

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 2:13 pm

#9 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 2:22 pm

Euro in 96 hours

Note: Was posted on twitter by Ryan Maue from Weatherbell.

#10 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 2:22 pm

BTW...from what I read, TWC should be naming this system tomorrow...they wanted to wait until the threat became more clear.

HurrMark · #11 Postby **HurrMark** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 4:21 pm

While I think the naming thing is not a bad idea, I think it is too soon after 'Sandy' to start naming noreasters...but that probably going to get into the main stream media, as TWC has that type of clout. So we will start hearing about "Winter Storm Xerxes" or something like that fairly soon I suppose...

jaxfladude · #12 Postby **jaxfladude** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 5:02 pm

Thoughts with those suffering...

#13 Postby **wxman57** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 5:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro even stronger than 00Z - 40-50 kt winds (with higher gusts) into coastal NJ and Long Island Wednesday afternoon/evening. Could cause tides 3-4 ft above normal and additional power outages over a large area.

That would be a surge of about 8 feet into the Battery?

No, no, no. The wind direction would be from the NE-ENE not SE-SSE. It would pile water up north of western Long Island, but not from the south into The Battery. Could definitely cause additional damage to power lines from southern Maryland through Long Island to eastern MA.

#14 Postby **ATCcane** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 5:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro even stronger than 00Z - 40-50 kt winds (with higher gusts) into coastal NJ and Long Island Wednesday afternoon/evening. Could cause tides 3-4 ft above normal and additional power outages over a large area.

Great....flying from Texas to Philadelphia in the morning. Will be in Atlantic City for two weeks for work. Ugh....power outages.

#15 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 5:16 pm

I wonder if Recon will fly into this?

#16 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 6:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I wonder if Recon will fly into this?

nope, its not tropical

#17 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sun Nov 04, 2012 6:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The big unknowns: intensity and location. The CMC I believe bombed it all the way to about 960mb then hooked it west - that would definitely be a worst-case scenario.

modeling is clustered, not too much mystery with this system...if i didnt have power i would prepare myself for an extension of no power...if i had power i would prepare myself for life without power..be good to see a much larger govt presence in advance of this one, no point in saving the resources for a rainy day, its pouring...we deal with this stuff in Florida but big difference is the temp...also, those electrical lines are being put up real fast and might not be as stable as they otherwise would be, the idea is you get everything running real fast and come back later and finish it off

tina25 · #18 Postby **tina25** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:24 am

What is the timeframe for this storm? I'm supposed to be flying out of Newark Wednesday at 1:30 and this really cannot disrupt.

#19 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:31 am

tina25 wrote:What is the timeframe for this storm? I'm supposed to be flying out of Newark Wednesday at 1:30 and this really cannot disrupt.

You'll be fine. Looks like a Wednesday night/Thursday event.

#20 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:50 am

00Z Euro has 8-10" snow into Baltimore/D.C. area from 15Z Wed to 15Z Thu. Up to 14" west of there.

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