Historic Cold Outbreak in Mid-January?

[RL3AO]

GFS been hinting at a major cold outbreak by the middle of the month. At times it has shown temperatures over 40 degrees below average over parts of the Upper Plains and Midwest.

January 16 Temp Anomalies



January 18 Actual Minimum Temps



GFS Output for Minneapolis



High of -20!

GFS shows cold but its two weeks out. What does the Euro show?

I can get the Euro out to January 14. When you look at 240 hrs, it shows the entire CONUS with below average 500mb heights with a very impressive trough coming out of the west suggesting brutal cold behind it in the window that the GFS is showing.




Could be an event to keep our eye on.

All images are from WeatherBell.com

[Portastorm]

We've been yapping about this potential for a day or two in the Texas winter thread. The full-latitude trough/vodka cold idea seems to have a lot of model support as well as teleconnections/analog support. Definitely something for the central USA to watch.

[tolakram]

I want some real winter weather for a change, so hopefully this comes in with some snow as well. Looks like Cincy will be near 5 to 10F. About time we had some decent cold, but I scoff at any winter without a 0F reading at least once.

[Tstormwatcher]

This was also discussed on the weatherunderground. I won't be holding my breath for it but it would be nice to have a real arctic outbreak.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro/show.html?entrynum=20

[SouthFloridian92]

Could it possibly come down here to Florida?!

[Tstormwatcher]

Could it possibly come down here to Florida?!

Anything is possible but right now its doubtful.

[vbhoutex]

GFS been hinting at a major cold outbreak by the middle of the month. At times it has shown temperatures over 40 degrees below average over parts of the Upper Plains and Midwest.

January 16 Temp Anomalies

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... nus_43.png

January 18 Actual Minimum Temps

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... nus_78.png

GFS Output for Minneapolis

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collec ... 80x387.png

High of -20!

GFS shows cold but its two weeks out. What does the Euro show?

I can get the Euro out to January 14. When you look at 240 hrs, it shows the entire CONUS with below average 500mb heights with a very impressive trough coming out of the west suggesting brutal cold behind it in the window that the GFS is showing.




Could be an event to keep our eye on.

All images are from WeatherBell.com

Doesn't show anything unusual for Texas for this time of year, but what comes after may be the kicker???

[WeatherGuesser]

Updates?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Below is all I can find, concerning a possible update.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1026 AM EST MON JAN 07 2013

VALID 12Z THU JAN 10 2013 - 12Z MON JAN 14 2013

THE 7/00Z ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 7...WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG 130W-140W (IN THE
EAST PAC). AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT BY DAY 7.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AND TROUGH AMPLIFICATION STARTS
CONTENTIOUSLY WITH A DAY3-4 SYSTEM/CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MIGRATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. A 'KICKER'
SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING IN THE EAST PAC AND COLD FRONT
STARTS/FINISHES THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION ON DAY 5/6 OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED H5 ENERGY CONTINUING TO
CARVE THE WESTERN (UPWIND) PORTION OF THE TROUGH (DAYS 6/7) ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
SURFACE AND H5 GRAPHICS UTILIZED SOME OPERATIONAL ASPECTS OF THE
7/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOW SIDE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD DEVELOP A CLOSED SURFACE CYCLONE IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (ALONG THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS) ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS BODES WELL FOR A DECIDEDLY WARMER/MILDER AND MOISTURE-LADEN
AIRMASS TO SET UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
(DAY 4-7) AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY (DAY 4-5).
AND THE RETURN OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH DAY 6.

VOJTESAK


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

[wxman57]

Looks cold, but I wouldn't call it historic. Nothing like 1983 or 1989, or the 1976-1977 winter.

[RL3AO]

Yeah. Its calmed down a bit. The -20 high the GFS was showing for Minneapolis would have been an all time record. Still looks like a nice cold outbreak for the upper mid-west though.

[GaryHughes]

-20 you can have it.

[WeatherGuesser]

Well, it's mid-January and I haven't seen anything historic. Not even really anything unusual or abnormal.

[Cyclenall]

Well, it's mid-January and I haven't seen anything historic. Not even really anything unusual or abnormal.

Exactly, if its not going to be record breaking or historic, then its just going to be boring. I think the days of historic cold outbreaks are over for good, at least for the mid-section of North America. Its still possible I suppose but I'll believe it when I see it...the climate is becoming so warmth-based.

The following post and opinion about future cold outbreaks is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. Its just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigB0882]

The cold has to go somewhere, it doesn't just disappear to my knowledge. It will eventually spill over into the US and head South. When? I dunno.

[Cyclenall]

The cold has to go somewhere, it doesn't just disappear to my knowledge. It will eventually spill over into the US and head South. When? I dunno.

That actually brings up an interesting concept in weather, does the "background" temperature change as the climate warms up or is the same cold just restricted or concentrated somewhere else?

[NDG]

Definitely central and eastern Europe along with parts of Asia have seen the best of the SSW.
Next week it will be eastern Canada and the Great Lakes area & NE US that will be frigid. The neutral to +NAO has made the Arctic air in N.A. move more east than south.

[NDG]

Here comes the Arcic/Siberian High 1050+ mb high that a piece of it will turn Canada and the northern US fairly frigid over the next few days.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm just tired of the roller coaster. Highs in the 20s for a couple of days, then into the 50s, then back to the 20s. We've done that swing for a few weeks now and your system never gets a chance to adjust to either.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at wind chills near -50f in some areas.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152279292109041&set=a.207878764040.128709.206848514040&type=1&theater