Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

Another of my favorite memories this winter is this very amazing moment happening right now today...

[Texas Snowman]

Because we just went to 500 pages in this thread on St. Patrick's Day!!!

In many ways, this truly was/is the winter of Wxman 57's discontent!

Mugs of green hot chocolate for everyone around!!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm, before you lock the doors on the PWC winter forecast office for the spring and summer months and shutter this thread, expect a closing news release about the winter of 2013/14.

[South Texas Storms]

This has certainly been one of the coldest winters that I can remember. I just wish there could have been more precipitation to go along with the cold temperatures. I really hope this summer is like 2007! I feel like it rained almost every day that summer!

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, before you lock the doors on the PWC winter forecast office for the spring and summer months and shutter this thread, expect a closing news release about the winter of 2013/14.

You sir, have carried us over the threshold! Well done Texas Snowman! Well done.

We all will look forward to that press release. And geez louise, temps next weekend are looking stoopid cold for Texas, in terms of relative to normal. Winter won't let go.

[srainhoutx]

Portastorm, before you lock the doors on the PWC winter forecast office for the spring and summer months and shutter this thread, expect a closing news release about the winter of 2013/14.

You sir, have carried us over the threshold! Well done Texas Snowman! Well done.

We all will look forward to that press release. And geez louise, temps next weekend are looking stoopid cold for Texas, in terms of relative to normal. Winter won't let go.

And the final week of March isn't looking much better. I'm beginning to wonder if this pattern will finally relax as enter April.

[Ntxw]

Portastorm, before you lock the doors on the PWC winter forecast office for the spring and summer months and shutter this thread, expect a closing news release about the winter of 2013/14.

You sir, have carried us over the threshold! Well done Texas Snowman! Well done.

We all will look forward to that press release. And geez louise, temps next weekend are looking stoopid cold for Texas, in terms of relative to normal. Winter won't let go.

And the final week of March isn't looking much better. I'm beginning to wonder if this pattern will finally relax as enter April.

It is omega block in Alaska/Aleutian low combo just like late Feb early March. First core aims for east then second bigger batch aims for plains. Obscene this is still occuring, will we ever see bluebonnets this year??

[Lagreeneyes03]

I know not to take it as anything close to gospel, but the Accuweather forcast for DFW area shows daily below normal temps, as much as 7-8F below normal every single day except for 1 or 2 as far out as they go. What model do they look at? Their short range and Weather.com short range are completely different for next week though.

And Steve McCauley still saying hot and dry summer...........wish he'd elaborate on what hes seeing.

[Tejas89]

And Steve McCauley still saying hot and dry summer...........wish he'd elaborate on what hes seeing.

This has been one of the driest years on record, since Jan. 1, and the chilled waters of the gulf aren't helping. No moisture in the ground and no pattern change = hot n' dry for North Texas. That is the obvious safe bet.

Need an El Nino... and a strong one at that.

[Ntxw]

This is a valid point. Without vegetation temps can go higher than normal. On the flip side one must consider the same pattern does not give the same results in different seasons. This is why I never bought into the wet spring and thunderstorms. NW flow with cold air still dominating is dry in winter and spring. However the same flow in summer yields numerous thunderstorm complexes from the high plains as discussed by ports previously.

To intensify drought it needs La Nina or -PDO values grow, neither are present or expected. So while we may not be wetter than normal down the road, there is not good support for continued dry once past the seasonal barrier.

[wxman57]

I've been measuring a good bit of rain in SW Houston this year. More rain than last year, certainly in February and March. January this year was a little drier than normal. Here's a comparison of this year vs. 2013:



12Z GFS paints a lovely picture of a cold and wet weather to start out next week:

[Tcu101]

I've been measuring a good bit of rain in SW Houston this year. More rain than last year, certainly in February and March. January this year was a little drier than normal. Here's a comparison of this year vs. 2013:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/2014rain.gif

12Z GFS paints a lovely picture of a cold and wet weather to start out next week:

Wow that was a lot of rain in April last year! Did that come all in one rain event or spread out through the month?

[wxman57]

I've been measuring a good bit of rain in SW Houston this year. More rain than last year, certainly in February and March. January this year was a little drier than normal. Here's a comparison of this year vs. 2013:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/2014rain.gif

12Z GFS paints a lovely picture of a cold and wet weather to start out next week:

Wow that was a lot of rain in April last year! Did that come all in one rain event or spread out through the month?

That was mostly one event (about 8") over a period of several hours centered over the Brays Bayou watershed in SW Houston. June-August of 2013 were a little dry, as was December 2013 and January of this year. However, rainfall in SW Houston isn't too much below normal. 2011 was quite dry, with around 22" (normal is 50+ inches).

[Tcu101]

I've been measuring a good bit of rain in SW Houston this year. More rain than last year, certainly in February and March. January this year was a little drier than normal. Here's a comparison of this year vs. 2013:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/2014rain.gif

12Z GFS paints a lovely picture of a cold and wet weather to start out next week:

Wow that was a lot of rain in April last year! Did that come all in one rain event or spread out through the month?

That was mostly one event (about 8") over a period of several hours centered over the Brays Bayou watershed in SW Houston. June-August of 2013 were a little dry, as was December 2013 and January of this year. However, rainfall in SW Houston isn't too much below normal. 2011 was quite dry, with around 22" (normal is 50+ inches).

Little off topic from "winter" but speaking of watershed in Houston , do any of those bayou's in Houston feed into any lakes? Or they all spill into the bays?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Back on the grid after SXSW, looks like the NW flow will continue. I think Dallas has a few freezes left under their belt

[Texas Snowman]

At work, haven't seen it. But it sounds like Old Man Winter continues to want to wear out his welcome...

@BigJoeBastardi: @RyanMaue ECMWF is a sick dog at 5k day 6-10. Not even when I doodled maps in class, would I draw something like that for late March.

[wxman57]

Little off topic from "winter" but speaking of watershed in Houston , do any of those bayou's in Houston feed into any lakes? Or they all spill into the bays?

They generally feed into Galveston Bay.

[wxman57]

I found the following July forecast for Dec-Feb on page 1 of this topic:

[dhweather]

If the cold front continued into the summer, wouldn't that extend the period of large hailstorms in the southern plains?

I don't think so. Large hail is usually correlated with extremely strong updrafts into a thunderstorm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I found the following July forecast for Dec-Feb on page 1 of this topic:

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BPBYsb7 CMAEBqcr.jpg:large[/img]

If that pans out that will be very impressive