Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

Severe T-Storm watch coming for northwest half of NTX.

[dhweather]

[dhweather]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 151957
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN UNSTABLE AND THERE IS ENOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
TO SUSTAIN SOME UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...SOME STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS ARE BACKED AT MANY LOCATIONS CURRENTLY...THE WIND FIELDS ARE
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO
THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING SHORT WAVE. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY...COOL AND WINDY DAY WITH NEAR STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION.
THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND THE GROUND WILL BE MOIST FROM TODAY/S
RAINFALL...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES NEAR THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF...KEEP THE
UPPER LOW WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...WE WILL NOT
MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WHICH
WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCATIONS GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM STEADILY UNDER ABUNDANT SUN.
HOWEVER...A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL NOT BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHEN A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
QUICKLY EAST AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM ON THE WEEKEND. THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.

[Texas Snowman]

Another freeze for DFW?

[dhweather]

Once again, the vast majority of the rain going to Denton and Collin counties.

[TheProfessor]

yeah, I just got drenched walking out of church. Were getting a steady downpour right now.

[Ntxw]

Pretty good soaker going through the airport and the NTX PWC branch. Sheets! What is this stuff??? Quick half to an inch under the bands!

[Ntxw]

I'm still very impressed at the cold air mass to come post equinox. You can see it well evident for North America on both the ENS and OP guidance. That kind of cold just simply should not exist post the vernal equinox. Cold is supposed to retreat and fade and not build in Canada, but this will be the case. Low heights keeps virtually everyone below to well below average. A "shock" type front may occur the ending days of March or opening days of April.

[dhweather]

[dhweather]

Radar storm total precipitation. Lucky people in red and yellow.

[katheria]

Lots of rain here will check tomortow how much but back porch is standing in water and still raining:-)

[Ntxw]

DFW Airport picked up about 1.3 inches.

[ravyrn]

WEATHER ALERT

Throughout this afternoon and evening, copious amounts of a compound known as dihydrogen monoxide has inundated many areas of ETX with runoff of the compound flowing into local lakes and water ways. Environmental impacts on local hydrological systems include the raising of local creeks, rivers, and reservoirs and extensive ground saturation. Dihydrogen monoxide is anticipated to continue to be ejected from the cloud cover into tonight, with periods of locally heavy rates possible.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

1.09 inches of rain in Richardson. Much needed, can't way to smell the clean air in the morning.

[dhweather]

0.69 in Heath, I'll gladly take it. Wish it had been more like the 2+ inches in good chunks of Denton/Collin counties.

The sounds and smells of rain were great last night, it's been a long time.

[Texas Snowman]

45 and a bit chilly in Denison this a.m.

[HockeyTx82]

Wow, what a rain storm yesterday. I can't remember the last time it rained that hard or that long. Lighting struck on my apartment complex property. There was a bright pinkish flash and a loud boom. Everyone was on their balcony looking to see what happened and not long after the fire department showed up. No fire but it set the fire alarm off in one of the buildings.

The pond in back was very low and now it's overfilled.

There was an awesome double rainbow east of me when the sun came out after the clouds blew threw.

If we can get storms like that, heavy rain minus the hail/wind/tornadoes all spring we would be in business.

[Ntxw]

It was a fun try, my wishcasting for the strengthening system looks like it's not going to pan out with one piece over us the other over going south into MX instead of full phase. I'm glad for some rain, El Nino is going to change this hopefully soon as it's getting ready to kick up.

GEFS, ECMWF ENS and CFSv2 now all have that classic signature cold look you search for when looking at very cold air drainage. It isn't a full dagger of cold into Texas but spillage from Western/Central Canada into the CONUS with severe Alaskan block. They're slowly grasping the magnitude of the cold that will bundle up in Canada.

[Portastorm]

Interesting tweet/graphic from Joe Bastardi this morning showing the winters in our part of the nation have generally been "cold" for the last five years or so. Ironically enough, it didn't translate into snow for ... cough, cough ... certain areas of the state. But you will notice that the coldest areas of Texas to normal were centered over southeast Texas and the home of a certain private sector meteorologist who doesn't enjoy cold weather.



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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h
Since winter of 2008-2009, the US has been cold in winter

[Ntxw]

Interesting tweet/graphic from Joe Bastardi this morning showing the winters in our part of the nation have generally been "cold" for the last five years or so. Ironically enough, it didn't translate into snow for ... cough, cough ... certain areas of the state. But you will notice that the coldest areas of Texas to normal were centered over southeast Texas and the home of a certain private sector meteorologist who doesn't enjoy cold weather.

With the possibility of a cold PDO El Nino coming we can toss 2014-2015 into the list! Those tend to be snowy perhaps. Dalton minimum we come!

Earlier in the month I mentioned on my jog everything was so dead. Well it's mid March now and not too much improvement. Many of the trees are still leaf-less, though some are trying but not much to them. Forget about flowers and a lot of the cold hardy plants have suffered as well. Can't recall it looking like that so deep into March that I can remember. If another blast comes end of the month and early April will there be much of a real growing season at all?