Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#41 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:56 am

Interesting thoughts Ntxw and good work! Appreciate you sharing that with us. Outside of Wxman57, I think most of us would welcome a cooler and wetter autumn in Texas.

Bastardi has been tweeting a lot this week about the Euro seasonal showing a Modoki nino for this coming winter. More food for thought.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#42 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:28 am

Portastorm wrote:Bastardi has been tweeting a lot this week about the Euro seasonal showing a Modoki nino for this coming winter. More food for thought.


That would definitely change many things if it occurred. CFSv2 has been insisting that Nino 3.4 do this as well. I do not have faith in either though because both have been harping warmer values all summer and it has not verified.

One interesting long term clue to those analogs, all of them featured a moderate Nino shortly the next year (1961 had one two years after following another neutral). For those who have missed El Nino's, we are over due and I will hedge bets one is on it's way soon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#43 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:45 pm

Climatology suggest that a Modoki Nino would bring well above average rainfall for much of the state of Texas. I couldn't find any information about how it would affect temperatures, though. I think that would be a good project for the moderator of this board.

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#44 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 15, 2013 4:52 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Climatology suggest that a Modoki Nino would bring well above average rainfall for much of the state of Texas. I couldn't find any information about how it would affect temperatures, though. I think that would be a good project for the moderator of this board.

(image deleted)


I went through your fine city twice in the last two weeks and thought about stopping and asking where I could find the famous winter prognosticator, aggiecutter. Ended up not having enough time sadly. :wink:

If I get a chance this weekend, I'll look up Modoki Ninos and their impact on Texas winters.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#45 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:42 pm

Portastorm wrote:
aggiecutter wrote:Climatology suggest that a Modoki Nino would bring well above average rainfall for much of the state of Texas. I couldn't find any information about how it would affect temperatures, though. I think that would be a good project for the moderator of this board.

(image deleted)


I went through your fine city twice in the last two weeks and thought about stopping and asking where I could find the famous winter prognosticator, aggiecutter. Ended up not having enough time sadly. :wink:

If I get a chance this weekend, I'll look up Modoki Ninos and their impact on Texas winters.


I did a little research and found this paper on the subject.

"During CP El Niño
events, the warm anomalies are located in northwestern US and the cold anomalies are
centered in the southeastern US."

Link to paper:
http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Paper.US ... cepted.pdf
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#46 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:26 pm

I did extensive posting last year on CP and EP El Nino's in the ENSO thread. From what I know CP or "Modoki" El Nino's are the best for winter if you like persistent chill and snow in Texas. They are weak enough to allow cold in Western Canada compared to traditional El Nino's yet provide the active STJ. 2009-2010, 2002-2003 are included as CP El Nino's. East Pacific Ninos (1982-83 and 1997-98) are very wet in Texas but the core cold anomalies are focused more to the southwest US.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#47 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:34 pm

FWIW, Bastardi is tweeting today about the Duck Dynasty guys seeing several snows this winter ... along the I-20 corridor in Louisiana.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#48 Postby Nikki » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:35 pm

Portastorm wrote:FWIW, Bastardi is tweeting today about the Duck Dynasty guys seeing several snows this winter ... along the I-20 corridor in Louisiana.



Well then they better share!!!! :lol:
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#49 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:07 pm

The weather office here in Jackson (KY) said, after I asked, that after a quick glance, a mild winter followed by a wet summer popped up snowy analogs...77-78, 93-94, and 09-10 as the ones they mentioned.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#50 Postby Comanche » Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:56 pm

Info on the Modoki El Nino-

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... _s.html.en

Temp map-
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#51 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:17 pm

That is some great information there, Comanche. Thanks so much!

It appears that if a real Modoki Nino were to develop, we'd (Texans) all be in our glory for the winter months with much below normal temps and above to much above normal precip. All of us that is except for the Heat Miser himself, wxman57. :wink:
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#52 Postby Comanche » Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:55 am

Any of you wx enthusiasts care to elaborate on what conditions created these two cold air outbreaks?

Dec 1983
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Dec 1989
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#53 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:49 pm

Looking strictly at ENSO values, in 1983 we were in a weak to moderate Nina in December and had just come out of a strong Nino the winter before. In 1989, there were neutral conditions after coming out of a moderate Nina.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#54 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:53 pm

It's way too early to be talking about cold weather. We still have months of nice warm weather to enjoy. ;-)

However, rumors floating around the office from my longtime coworker are suggesting this might be a cold winter for Texas. Of course, he is a big "cold-mongerer".
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#55 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:It's way too early to be talking about cold weather. We still have months of nice warm weather to enjoy. ;-)

However, rumors floating around the office from my longtime coworker are suggesting this might be a cold winter for Texas. Of course, he is a big "cold-mongerer".


That will be music to many ears. For me, give me snow or give me warmth!
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#56 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:11 pm

I have to concur with Portastorm, that seems to be the similarity. Neutral and Nina years like to feature those week or two of extreme arctic blasts (though not always the case, just it tends to happen with that set). Jan 1951 and 1962 in addition to 1989 etc are other examples. Those outbreaks featured very cold high pressure domes from Siberia and crossing the Arctic.
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#57 Postby Comanche » Wed Aug 21, 2013 4:28 pm

I looked for:

strato warming events, nada

phase of PDO, AMO, no pattern

AO, NAO, PNA...very mild and mixed.

Just cannot seem to find a smoking gun, but I am as novice as it gets at these things. Was just curious as to what possibly drove those events.
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Re:

#58 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 21, 2013 4:57 pm

Comanche wrote:I looked for:

strato warming events, nada

phase of PDO, AMO, no pattern

AO, NAO, PNA...very mild and mixed.

Just cannot seem to find a smoking gun, but I am as novice as it gets at these things. Was just curious as to what possibly drove those events.


Left out one important key signal, the East Pacific Oscillation or EPO. All of the listed McFarland cold blasts were preceded/occurred by a tank of the EPO into very negative values. In fact it's quite rare for us to be in a record cold snap without a -EPO during the winter. What is a negative EPO? When high pressure shoots up in the NPAC often to Alaska and/or NW Canada dislodging cold air south and east from that region.

Can be a headache to scroll but you can see the daily values below. Just pick out the time period per cold blast and try to match it up.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/te ... resent.txt
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Re: Re:

#59 Postby Comanche » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Comanche wrote:I looked for:

strato warming events, nada

phase of PDO, AMO, no pattern

AO, NAO, PNA...very mild and mixed.

Just cannot seem to find a smoking gun, but I am as novice as it gets at these things. Was just curious as to what possibly drove those events.


Left out one important key signal, the East Pacific Oscillation or EPO. All of the listed McFarland cold blasts were preceded/occurred by a tank of the EPO into very negative values. In fact it's quite rare for us to be in a record cold snap without a -EPO during the winter. What is a negative EPO? When high pressure shoots up in the NPAC often to Alaska and/or NW Canada dislodging cold air south and east from that region.

Can be a headache to scroll but you can see the daily values below. Just pick out the time period per cold blast and try to match it up.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/te ... resent.txt


Grassy-ass!!!
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#60 Postby beachbum123 » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:33 am

You guys have lost your minds!!!!
Texans can not handle cold/snow/ice! :roll:

Have none of you driven in Houston?
If someone were to spill a bag of ice on the freeway it would cause a 20 car pile up, we can not have snow and ice stormes!!!

Also, we do not have the propper attire for anything below 60 degrees!

Being a native Houstonion, I am naturally uncomfortable when the tempature drops below 65! :froze:

May our summer bleed into fall and may our winter feel like fall! :sun:
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