Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Here is what the winter of 1981-82 looked like in terms of overall precip and temp averages.



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[natlib]

Here is what the winter of 1981-82 looked like in terms of overall precip and temp averages.

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I guess the fact that there are no shades of orange of red should be considered a good thing right!????

[gboudx]

I guess the fact that there are no shades of orange of red should be considered a good thing right!????

For the bottom pic, yes. Unless your S2k handle is "wxman57".

[wxman57]

Yeah, "good thing" is relative. It means 81-82 was fairly "normal" on average, with a short cold period in January. Of course, I'm not sure 81-82 is a good analog.

[natlib]

Steve McCauley....former weather man at WFAA in Dallas had this to say this morning on his facebook page.....

Very encouraging for us winter weather lovers....

And for those of you who have been asking about the upcoming winter season, I have some encouraging news in the ultra long-range forecast for those of you who enjoy Texas snowfall. There are indications in both the European and Japanese models that conditions will be setting up in the Pacific and the North Atlantic such that there will be an increased tendency for very cold air to drain into the United States on a more frequent basis than normal, especially by late January into most of February.

At the same time, an active subtropical jet flowing over these cold air outbreaks should be able to increase our winter precipitation to above normal, especially as we get past mid January. Therefore, the data suggest - although do not guarantee, obviously - that we should see above normal snowfall across north Texas (and indeed much of the country) this winter!

Perhaps the Farmer's Almanac was on to something ?!? We shall see.

[Big O]

Larry Cosgrove is using 1981-82 as a possible analog for this winter. Anyone have any data on that winter to share?

Was checking Houston record highs/lows for Dec-Feb and I have good news and bad news. The good news was the record high of 81 on Dec. 22, 1981. Bad news is the low of 12 on Jan 11, 1982 and 19 degrees a couple of days later. Those were the only records I saw. It was my second winter in Houston and I don't remember much about it. I remember the winter of 1983-84 quite well, though...

Wxman, are you alluding to the fact that you or your long-range winter weather expert is thinking of 1983-84 as an analog for this winter?

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley....former weather man at WFAA in Dallas had this to say this morning on his facebook page.....

Very encouraging for us winter weather lovers....

And for those of you who have been asking about the upcoming winter season, I have some encouraging news in the ultra long-range forecast for those of you who enjoy Texas snowfall. There are indications in both the European and Japanese models that conditions will be setting up in the Pacific and the North Atlantic such that there will be an increased tendency for very cold air to drain into the United States on a more frequent basis than normal, especially by late January into most of February.

At the same time, an active subtropical jet flowing over these cold air outbreaks should be able to increase our winter precipitation to above normal, especially as we get past mid January. Therefore, the data suggest - although do not guarantee, obviously - that we should see above normal snowfall across north Texas (and indeed much of the country) this winter!

Perhaps the Farmer's Almanac was on to something ?!? We shall see.

Where is Steve now? I don't watch local news much but I have noticed a guy named Ashton on and not Steve. I also haven't seen the blonde hottie either.

[gpsnowman]

He left WFAA sometime in late summer to concentrate on his teaching and studies. He still gives almost daily weather updates on his facebook page. He has a large following online. Very smart and informative weatherman. You should check it out.

[gboudx]

That proves I don't watch local news much if he left late Summer and I didn't notice.

I don't have a FB account and don't really want one. But, if he's on Twitter I'll try and catch him there. Thanks.

[Ntxw]

And for those of you who have been asking about the upcoming winter season, I have some encouraging news in the ultra long-range forecast for those of you who enjoy Texas snowfall. There are indications in both the European and Japanese models that conditions will be setting up in the Pacific and the North Atlantic such that there will be an increased tendency for very cold air to drain into the United States on a more frequent basis than normal, especially by late January into most of February.

This



And this



Keep your eyes on the northeast Pacific. EPO EPO EPO...I like the January idea. Think early 1960s.

[Texas Snowman]

Well, well, well.

Look at what the GFS delivered for next week.

Do I see snow on the ground in Oklahoma? May or may not happen, but can the Heat Miser's demise be far behind?!?

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COPPERAS COVE TO
FORT WORTH TO MCKINNEY TO SULPHUR SPRINGS...

.AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>118-129>132-141>144-156-157-070415-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FR.Y.0001.131107T0900Z-131107T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-EASTLAND-
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-LAMPASAS-
CORYELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...
GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...
CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE
208 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 33 AND 36 DEGREES WILL BE
COMMON AT EYE LEVEL.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED BY FROST AND
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. COVER OR BRING IN YOUR
SENSITIVE PLANTS TO PROTECT THEM.

[Rgv20]

Looks to me like the 0z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at some cold weather coming to Texas by the end of next week. 0zECMWF has a major winter storm for Oklahoma with snow as far south into Dallas by next Friday!

0zGFS snow forecast for next Thursday November 14..


0zGFS Sea level pressure forecast courtesy of Ryan Maue Twitter....1046MB High in 6 days!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013


OUR NEXT CHALLENGE COMES AT MID WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THEN AMPLIFIES IT OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF ALSO
SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE BUT IT IS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS SLOWER AND
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY FRIDAY. THE
RESULT OF THE GFS WOULD SPREAD COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF
DELAYS THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR/FRONT UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WE/VE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF TIMING...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY.....IT WILL BE
TURNING NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS/HIGHS DOWNWARD SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. HOWEVER...IF THE AIRMASS OF THE GFS PANS OUT...THEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE
TOO WARM. 75

Looks like I need to start getting the fireplace ready and wood pile stocked back up.

[Rgv20]

This is the morning discussion out of the NWS in Corpus Christi.....The 0z Operational ECMWF is basically in the colder extreme in temperatures compare to its ensembles for North Texas, going to be interesting what the 12z run of the ECMWF and GFS show!

BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH 00Z GFS BRINGING STRONG 1045MB HIGH
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BLASTING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH SYSTEM WITH COLDEST AIRMASS STAYING TO OUR
NORTH WHILE GEFS PERTURBATIONS ARE WIDELY SCATTERED. FOR NOW WILL
LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF BUT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SPED UP IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES IF MORE POTENT SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS BECOMES
EVIDENT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN BECOME DEPENDENT ON
POSSIBLE FROPA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. THANKS TO BRO AND EWX FOR
COORDINATION.

[Texas Snowman]

From Fort Worth this morning:

"THE ECMWF IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS CONCERNING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT. BOTH NOW AGREE ON TUESDAY AND THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL ORIGINATE FROM NORTHWEST CANADA. TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION
ARE RUNNING IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH SURFACE PRESSURES AROUND
1028 MB. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL TAKE IT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...THE FRONT TIMING WILL BE: CROSSING
THE RED RIVER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THROUGH DFW BEFORE MIDDAY
AND THROUGH WACO...KILLEEN AND TEMPLE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW.

WE/VE CONTINUED OUR TREND OF KEEPING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH IF WE TRULY RECEIVE A DIRECT BLOW OF THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS. FOR NOW SETTLED ON LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE SITES IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE REACHING FREEZING THIS SEASON...THIS EVENT
COULD PRODUCE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE. 75"

[lrak]

The Weather Channel 10 day forecast has November 16th and 17th near 80 degrees for the highs in CC TX? IYO will it warm up that quick from the cold weather you all are forecasting? Or is the front going to stall and not make it this far South? I don't understand the CC weather discussion regarding next week
Thanks!

[wxman57]

Wxman, are you alluding to the fact that you or your long-range winter weather expert is thinking of 1983-84 as an analog for this winter?

Definitely not. I'm just saying that the winter of '81-'82 wasn't memorable for me but '83-'84 sure was.

[wxman57]

The Weather Channel 10 day forecast has November 16th and 17th near 80 degrees for the highs in CC TX? IYO will it warm up that quick from the cold weather you all are forecasting? Or is the front going to stall and not make it this far South? I don't understand the CC weather discussion regarding next week
Thanks!

I was in Corpus Christi Mon/Tue visiting clients. Was nice and warm. With the Gulf still so very warm, all it takes is a wind out of the SE to get your temps back up to 80 degrees this time of year.

[lrak]

Ah Man I feel dumb, I should of figured that out myself. Thanks wxman57 you always help me out.

I'm just glad its not going to be like North TX is going to be, again thank you for your reply.

Let me know if you ever want to go fishing or go out to eat when you come down next time