Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Comanche]

Oh yes..... all the way down to Houston (and esp the Woodlands )!!

Freeze Galveston Bay while your handing out blasts!

[Tireman4]

Oh yes..... all the way down to Houston (and esp the Woodlands )!![/quote]

Not that I have a problem with the Woodlands (I live 25 miles south of there..LOL), but why that township?

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has temps in Houston down to the mid 30s by November 1st. Way too cold for a halloween bike ride to the downtown party.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Oh yes..... all the way down to Houston (and esp the Woodlands )!!

Freeze Galveston Bay while your handing out blasts!

It would be worth it for here to hit -50C (and have a direct path straight down there)!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:grrr:

Oh yes..... all the way down to Houston (and esp the Woodlands )!!

Not that I have a problem with the Woodlands (I live 25 miles south of there..LOL), but why that township?

Sorry Tireman Hobby is also in my sights (kinda figured Houston would cover you)!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

12Z GFS has temps in Houston down to the mid 30s by November 1st. Way too cold for a halloween bike ride to the downtown party.

Already warming this Canadian's heart!

[Tireman4]

:grrr:

Oh yes..... all the way down to Houston (and esp the Woodlands )!!

Not that I have a problem with the Woodlands (I live 25 miles south of there..LOL), but why that township?

Sorry Tireman Hobby is also in my sights (kinda figured Houston would cover you)!

Yep, there ya go.

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS has temps in Houston down to the mid 30s by November 1st. Way too cold for a halloween bike ride to the downtown party.

Question...is that a daytime high or the low? If it is a high ( I am sure it is not and it is a long way to go), look out. LOL

[gpsnowman]

12Z GFS has temps in Houston down to the mid 30s by November 1st. Way too cold for a halloween bike ride to the downtown party.

If that is the case, maybe you should be an Eskimo for Halloween.

[ravyrn]

Perhaps we shall have an 1820-1821 winter and go ice skating on Galveston bay? Or 1899.

[Comanche]

Perhaps we shall have an 1820-1821 winter and go ice skating on Galveston bay? Or 1899.

One thing is for certain, Texas is due for an arctic blast, it has been almost a quarter century since we've had a polar pig down here (1989). My confidence in it has grown with the latest CPC winter outlook, which almost seems to always be opposite of guidance for some reason. So we got this going for us-

[mysterymachinebl]

Some rather interesting changes possible next week as discussed by NWS FW. One of the meteorologists on tv this morning mentioned this as well.


===

FXUS64 KFWD 221807 CCA
AFDFWD



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2013/


EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA
AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR
NORTH TEXAS IS THAT ON MONDAY AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY WE WILL SEE
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A RAPID RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE AND SPRING-LIKE WEATHER TO THE REGION. BEYOND
THAT...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE FLOW DIFFERENCES FROM
MODEL TO MODEL AND MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN THAT PRECLUDE CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE SOLUTION MOVING FORWARD FOR NORTH TEXAS.

FOR EXAMPLE...RAW MODEL OUTPUT FOR DFW AIRPORT ON NEXT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON /OCTOBER 30/...

22/00Z GFS...TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN LIGHT SNOW AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 MPH.

22/00Z ECMWF...TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 60S...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE OF ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES OF RAW MODEL
OUTPUT HERE LOCALLY...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS
TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IN GENERAL.
WHILE WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY IN THE WEEK
AHEAD...HERE ARE SOME GENERAL TAKE AWAYS...

DESPITE THE GFS RAW MODEL OUTPUT...THE CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NORTH
TEXAS ARE INCREDIBLY SMALL. THE ONLY REASON I EVEN BOTHERED TO
MENTION IT IS BECAUSE THE GFS RAW MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS SNOW OVER
NORTH TEXAS ON OCTOBER 30TH...SO IT IS OUT THERE FOR PUBLIC
CONSUMPTION. THERE IS NO ENSEMBLE OR ALTERNATIVE MODEL SUPPORT FOR
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ACTUALLY MORE MODEL SUPPORT
INDICATING THAT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WILL GET WRAPPED
UP INTO THIS SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY NEXT WEEK.

DO HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BROAD BRUSHED 20 POPS BECAUSE THERE WAS ENOUGH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO SUGGEST ONE STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH STRONG GULF MOISTURE
RETURN LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANY FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK AS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME THE
LARGE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE GREAT PLAINS.

CAVANAUGH

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has temps in Houston down to the mid 30s by November 1st. Way too cold for a halloween bike ride to the downtown party.

Question...is that a daytime high or the low? If it is a high ( I am sure it is not and it is a long way to go), look out. LOL

That was the predicted low, not the high. Not too far out of the ordinary.

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS has temps in Houston down to the mid 30s by November 1st. Way too cold for a halloween bike ride to the downtown party.

Question...is that a daytime high or the low? If it is a high ( I am sure it is not and it is a long way to go), look out. LOL

That was the predicted low, not the high. Not too far out of the ordinary.

Well, I will say this. I believe that this winter will be the Winter of Wxman 57's discontent. I am telling you, it is time sir.

[wxman57]

I'm wearing a coat in the office right now. Turned on the heater at home for the first time Sunday morning. Ready for summer...

[Tireman4]

I'm wearing a coat in the office right now. Turned on the heater at home for the first time Sunday morning. Ready for summer...

Woo hoo. Will you be trick or treating Halloween? It might be cold.....

[gboudx]

^ Can't you see him dressing up as the Heat Miser and scaring all the kids saying, "I like it HOT! Now get off my lawn!"

[Tireman4]

^ Can't you see him dressing up as the Heat Miser and scaring all the kids saying, "I like it HOT! Now get off my lawn!"

Or blowing a HUGE kerosine heater at them saying, "Not yet Old Man Winter. Get back you dressed up icicles"!!!

[South Texas Storms]

^ Can't you see him dressing up as the Heat Miser and scaring all the kids saying, "I like it HOT! Now get off my lawn!"

LOL now that made me laugh!

[somethingfunny]

Hey all, glad to be back on this thread before Halloween

I can't imagine this actually happening but the possibility exists:

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH HAS THE COLD WEATHER AFICIONADOS ENDING
THEIR SUMMER HIBERNATION...APPEARS TO BE ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN
MY FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE GFS...WHICH HAD THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF
OVER THE COASTAL TX PLAINS...NOW KEEPS THE UPPER TROF OPENED UP
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SLOWS THE COLD FRONT/S NORTH TX ENTRY
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF 00Z RUN FORECASTS EXTREMELY
COLD 850 MB AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS UNDER THE CUTOFF LOW...BUT THE
12Z RUN HAS ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE COLD AIR AND KEPT THE
UPPER LOW CENTER FARTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. IT BRINGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH TX WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN OR MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...WILL
FORECAST A HYBRID OF THE TWO MODELS...AND BACK UP THE FROPA UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. I DID KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM PROGRESSION...AND UPPED THE POPS TO 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN 48 HOURS OF MODEL
PREFERENCE FOR WEDNESDAY PRECIP.

IF THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTH...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DECREASE.
CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN
EVENT...BUT AGAIN...WITH NO MODEL CONSISTENCY CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/EXTENT IS LOW.