Texas Winter 2013-2014

[richtrav]

I think my pipes busted that year in Houston. My mother and i went to Colorado for my first ski trip and we didnt even get to winter park due to the cold and snow. It was stupid cold in Denver. My mom said something like 20 below.

The big freeze here was 1989, not 1990.

Yeah i remember that one, i was here and our pipes didnt freeze. It was either 1990, or 1991, but i thought it was '90.

1989 is in a class of its own

Dec 1990 was a pretty bad freeze, not a generational event like '83 or '89 level but certainly a solid Tier II freeze similar to '82, '85 or Feb '89. It was one of about 7 bad freezes between 1982 and 1990.

[dhweather]

I probably uploaded the wrong picture.


King Euro has a a secondary shot coming in 12/10 - 12/11 , and you see how far south the freezing line is. Most of the CONUS would be below freezing if this verifies.

Again, it's 10 days out, model errors can be (and usually are) large.

[BigB0882]

When you say most of the CONUS would be below freezing, what exactly does that mean? At night? If so, that isn't terribly surprising, is it? Or is this for a period of 24 hours or so, that would truly be remarkable for places so far south to stay below freezing for more than just a few hours overnight.

[Ntxw]

Despite what could happen at the surface (prolonged freeze), I am for one awed at what is going on in the Northeast Pacific (this has been going on all year). You just cannot ask for much more from the EPO. I have little doubt wintry precipitation is going to find it's way as far south as I-10 in Texas.

[gpsnowman]

Just how many hours below freezing could we be seeing here in North Texas?
I've been hearing about 1983 and 1989 but those outbreaks were extreme.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Just how many hours below freezing could we be seeing here in North Texas?
I've been hearing about 1983 and 1989 but those outbreaks were extreme.

That's probably too extreme for this first outbreak of cold. Something more like Christmas week last year or maybe a Feb 2011 (if there is snow cover) if things line up right. Beyond that is still to be determined.

If you can recall, December 1989 had an outbreak of cold before the big one about the first two weeks, it did not all come at once. In it's own right that was a strong cold snap on it's own. The coming cold is comparable to that first one.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Just how many hours below freezing could we be seeing here in North Texas?
I've been hearing about 1983 and 1989 but those outbreaks were extreme.

GFS is showing almost 96 consecutive hours below freezing for DFW from Friday Morning - Tuesday Afternoon with maybe a brief spell barely above freezing on Sunday afternoon. But if there is snowfall on the ground Sunday, I seriously doubt that occurring. This airmass is the real deal especially for this early in December, record low maximum on Saturday could occur in DFW which was 33 back in 1950. Last time DFW had at least 72 consecutive hours below freezing I believe was January 2007.

[TrekkerCC]

:uarrow: Just how many hours below freezing could we be seeing here in North Texas?
I've been hearing about 1983 and 1989 but those outbreaks were extreme.

GFS is showing almost 96 consecutive hours below freezing for DFW from Friday Morning - Tuesday Afternoon with maybe a brief spell barely above freezing on Sunday afternoon. But if there is snowfall on the ground Sunday, I seriously doubt that occurring. This airmass is the real deal especially for this early in December, record low maximum on Saturday could occur in DFW which was 33 back in 1950. Last time DFW had at least 72 consecutive hours below freezing I believe was January 2007.

Actually, according to NWS FWD event, we had 100 hours below freezing from the Feb 2011 event. I'm using FWD's Feb 2011 month in review - it was a very incredible to look back at that week when we had a sleet/snow storm and then another snow storm at the end of the week. I don't think we broke many records that week, but we definitely had nights in the teens. Here is the link to the NWS FWD Office review: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=feb2011

[Ntxw]

Actually, according to NWS FWD event, we had 100 hours below freezing from the Feb 2011 event. I'm using FWD's Feb 2011 month in review - it was a very incredible to look back at that week when we had a sleet/snow storm and then another snow storm at the end of the week. I don't think we broke many records that week, but we definitely had nights in the teens. Here is the link to the NWS FWD Office review: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=feb2011

Good looking back. I definitely believed we would've broken the snap of no single digits since 1996 that outbreak had it not been for the cloud cover from the system late week bringing snow. I guess it was a trade off many of us were willing to take. Going through the 5h pattern through reanalysis, the same ideas were evident. Late January featured a crashing EPO and ridging from Alaska came tumbling down despite the very +AO which was nearly 4SD's above normal.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't remember the last time central Texas has had 2 chances of wintry precip by early December. If this pattern continues throughout the next few months, a lot of Texas could possibly get some snow.

This is crazy. I hope it continues because even though I don't like the cold, I love any precipitation and if it's gonna be cold, it should snow!

[Portastorm]

At least for south central Texas, it looks to me like the 0z GFS has backed off slightly on the cold. I'm judging that from the raw number output I'm seeing for Austin for next weekend. Looks a few degrees warmer than the 12z and yesterday's 0z run. Just something of note ... will be interesting to see how the 0z Euro shapes up. At this point I'm not betting anything on any specific model run. We know it's going to be freezing if not below in many places and we know there will be a precip chance. Beyond that ... lotsa model runs and lotsa speculation.

The Portastorm Weather Center is shutting down for the night. We have a long week (if not several weeks) ahead of us, folks!

[ouamber]

Does anyone have access to the Euro maps?

[Ntxw]

Does anyone have access to the Euro maps?

0z Euro remains steady as it was. Still 3-6 inches for Oklahoma City to Tulsa. 2-6 inches for North Texas including DFW and Texarkana.

[ouamber]

Thanks so much! I am trying to decide whether or not to cancel my trip to OKC on Friday morning for a conference. Coming from Tulsa, that could be nightmare!

[TrekkerCC]

Does anyone have access to the Euro maps?

0z Euro remains steady as it was. Still 3-6 inches for Oklahoma City to Tulsa. 2-6 inches for North Texas including DFW and Texarkana.

Still generally as cold (or colder than the 12z Euro run) at the surface?

[wxman57]

00Z and 06Z GFS runs are not nearly as cold for next weekend across Texas. Upper 30s vs. lower 30s for Houston and no 24hr period below freezing for the Dallas area. Note that the 00Z Euro 2m temps are similar to the 00Z and 06Z GFS - highs just above freezing in Dallas on Saturday and above freezing for the high on Sunday as well. It doesn't have a freeze for Houston until next Wednesday.

[Portastorm]

Yeah wxman57, I saw that last night and posted right before bed. I'm not sure if it's the typical GFS flakiness or if the model is on to something. Obviously we'd be dodging a huge bullet (i.e. ice storm) if the GFS is correct.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Yeah wxman57, I saw that last night and posted right before bed. I'm not sure if it's the typical GFS flakiness or if the model is on to something. Obviously we'd be dodging a huge bullet (i.e. ice storm) if the GFS is correct.

See my added note about the Euro being quite similar to the GFS. I think we'll see some back and forth with the models for the next 2-3 days until they get a good handle on the actual airmass that breaks loose.

Euro does have a band of 1/2" to 2" of snow from Waco through Dallas/Ft. Worth.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

5 days out, the GFS always seems to back off, then 12-24 hours later, it comes back on.

Larry Cosgrove said he believes another big cold snap is coming after the Dec 11th period

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Like I said before... this first cold blast will be cold, but nothing extreme or record book worthy.... It's mid next week and beyond where the bottom falls out...