Texas Winter 2013-2014

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amawea
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#241 Postby amawea » Sun Nov 10, 2013 8:29 pm

I can't believe it! An Alberta clipper coming down and this thread is dead. Hey! 30's for lows for Houston is pretty cold for this date.

Wake up! This may be a prophetic event for how the winter will become. 8-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#242 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Nov 10, 2013 8:37 pm

If we get the temps that are being forecast for Weds and Thurs we will be coming in with those temps about 3 weeks early. Typical first freeze in Houston metro is early December. IIRC average date of first freeze here is December 12. Harbinger of a colder than normal Winter in SE TX? Who knows? I'm not about to tackle that one yet.
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#243 Postby Kennethb » Sun Nov 10, 2013 8:56 pm

Here in Baton Rouge, I would not rule out upper 20's Thursday morning if we can get clear skies and no wind. It can get that cold here in early November. In fact the record low around November 4 or 5 was 27 set in 1991. In that winter of 1991-1992 here in Baton Rouge we had about 5 or 6 mornings in November in the mid to upper 20's. However the rest of the winter it never got below 28. While I do not have the time to look at global weather patterns/analogs of that winter, I do note the 1991 tropical season was light with no storms at all in the GOM.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#244 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:07 am

amawea wrote:I can't believe it! An Alberta clipper coming down and this thread is dead. Hey! 30's for lows for Houston is pretty cold for this date.

Wake up! This may be a prophetic event for how the winter will become. 8-)


Most of the discussion about current and upcoming cold weather is still in the fall thread. We don't usually transition to the winter thread unless it's about long range indicators and predictions until December or just after Thanksgiving.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#245 Postby iorange55 » Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:00 pm

amawea wrote:I can't believe it! An Alberta clipper coming down and this thread is dead. Hey! 30's for lows for Houston is pretty cold for this date.

Wake up! This may be a prophetic event for how the winter will become. 8-)


We're spoiled. It's not news unless we're getting a foot of snow.
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#246 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:02 am

D/FW received it's earliest freeze in 13 yrs this morning. it was 30 at the airport and 25 at the house. :cold:

Last official freeze this early came Nov 13, 2000. That winter of 2000/2001 recorded 46 freezes with D/FW lowest temp that season of 19

By comparison last winter's first freeze didn't occur till Dec. 10 and the total number of freezes for winter's 2011/2012, and 2012/2013 combined was only 42 with the lowest temp being 23.

I think we are on the right track to seeing a colder and wetter winter than what we have seen the last 2 years. :ggreen: :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#247 Postby natlib » Thu Nov 14, 2013 8:59 am

San Angelo set a record low of 20 yesterday morning. This beat the record of 22 set in 1919! Hope its a sign of things to come.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#248 Postby orangeblood » Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:27 pm

It's nice to be back discussing winter weather once again, looks like this thread should start picking up some steam over the next week or two...probably a little earlier than usual. Today's European Model should spark some interest from some on this board.

Euro snowfall forecast over the next 10 days with a big storm forecast to roll through the southern plains in the 8-10 day time frame....

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#249 Postby Portastorm » Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:48 pm

I would ask you all, respectfully, to keep/make your posts in the Texas Fall thread until we get closer on the calendar to the actual first day of winter. I know we're talking about the prospect of WINTER-like weather ... but we're still in autumn.

This would just make it easier on folks to know which thread to follow closely. Thanks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#250 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Nov 24, 2013 6:19 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=115695

:uarrow: Link to the Texas Fall thread for those who may be lost. :wink:
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#251 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 26, 2013 8:26 pm

Here we go gang, DJF has come and it's coming in with a BANG. The EPO has reached -100s (-125) and will continue to lower. Depending on how low it will go will determine the severity of the next Arctic outbreak.

5h Anomalies from the major models

Image

The -PDO and -PNA will support a southeast ridge. The core of this cold air mass will be west of the Appalachains and likely be centered over the Rockies and spill out into the Great Plains.

Top analog from CPC superensemble is December 1983

Image

We will have to wait and see what kind of air mass will exist from Siberia to Alaska to Canada. A 1050mb-1060mb high crossing over is very likely. How strong it remains once it slips into the CONUS is another factor of cold strength. With a cyclone depicted to develop over the northern plains probably means a deep, intense cold air mass rather than a shallow one.

HPC SD's prediction show 3SD's+ over Alaska which likely means an equally strong air mass on the opposite end will flow into the states. Where it is centered will likely challenge at the very least daily record lows. Such arctic outbreaks tends to come in a series of fronts one stronger than the next and the models are probably rushing the pattern change.
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#252 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 27, 2013 6:39 am

:uarrow: The question is what will happen after 12-4, it looks after December 21 1983 (anolog for 12-4 as shown by CPC map) the PNA went positive pushing that polar vortex & Arctic High that was in the NW US/SW Canada towards the eastern US.
So far, the ensembles do not show the PNA to go positive so the core of it might stay in the NW US and northern Plains.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#253 Postby Portastorm » Wed Nov 27, 2013 10:26 am

SPECIAL MODERATOR NOTICE

We appreciated everyone keeping their comments/posts about last weekend's weather event in the Texas Fall thread, despite the nature of the weather being (for us in Texas, at least) wintery! I had asked everyone to wait until Monday to move over to the winter thread, but like a band of crazy Black Friday shoppers ... y'all have already rushed down the door! In order to avoid confusion, I'm going to stand pat on keeping the Fall thread open until early Monday. I'll lock it down then.

Thanks everyone and I hope that you and your families have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#254 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Nov 28, 2013 10:22 am

East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) can play a huge role in freezes. EPO is like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Postive EPO and NAO lead to troughing, while Negative EPO and NAO lead to ridging.

Reflecting Back on the Winter Outlook and Recent Spring Trends for 2002-03
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/winter_2002 ... php#eponao

The December 1983 Freeze occurring during positive NAO and AO, while EPO was negative.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#255 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 28, 2013 6:14 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) can play a huge role in freezes. EPO is like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Postive EPO and NAO lead to troughing, while Negative EPO and NAO lead to ridging.

Reflecting Back on the Winter Outlook and Recent Spring Trends for 2002-03
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/winter_2002 ... php#eponao

The December 1983 Freeze occurring during positive NAO and AO, while EPO was negative.


Also arguably the EPO is more influential in Texas than the NAO and AO. The NAO is more important for the eastern US than here in the southern plains. It does help suppress storm tracks and lock in some cold. The AO is fairly dominant when the other two are not very strong but we've seen it swing both ways, and can be a muddled signal. The EPO is a pretty clear signal when it is 2SD's ore more, negative always sends a cooler air mass and positive sends mild Pacific air no questions asked to Texas. The PNA more or less is an extension of the EPO. If the EPO progresses it will flip the PNA positive and if it retrogrades we'll see -PNA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#256 Postby iorange55 » Sat Nov 30, 2013 9:02 pm

Looks like the site is finally working?

wxman57 must have been trying to stop the cold from coming. :wink:
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#257 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Dec 01, 2013 1:38 am

Happy December!!! :D

Image
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Yeah

#258 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Dec 01, 2013 2:25 am

somethingfunny wrote:Happy December!!! :D

*Image*

Wait a minute, is that showing 14 inches of snow give or take for northern LA and TX? :eek:
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#259 Postby ouamber » Sun Dec 01, 2013 3:46 am

What Euro run was this? It shows about 20 inches for me up in Tulsa!!! Good grief..if only!!:)
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#260 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Dec 01, 2013 11:01 am

I dont think this cold is anything like '83 or '89. As of now it doesnt even come close, but this air is modified big time by the pacific and its STILL this cold. It def had the potential to be epic but its not. I dont know of what we could compare it too. Maybe Dec 1990 since it affects the West coast so much.


With that said, if temps typically come in a bit warm, houston will be under the gun. I have to check the analog, but in my young memory, the only ice storm i remember was Feb 1997 where we were locked in ice for about 3 days. I remember being amazed that the temp one day didnt go above 28 and i wrecked my RC car that day while driving around on the ice lol.
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