Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

TwisterFanatic · #61 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:35 pm

Oh, you models.

ECMWF wants to drop it almost all as snow, showing widespread 6-12 inch amounts

NAM wants to drop it all as sleet/freezing rain

GFS does a little of both.

72 hours out and still don't know who will get what. Everybody is gonna get something though.

#62 Postby **BlueIce** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 4:46 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Oh, you models.

ECMWF wants to drop it almost all as snow, showing widespread 6-12 inch amounts

NAM wants to drop it all as sleet/freezing rain

GFS does a little of both.

72 hours out and still don't know who will get what. Everybody is gonna get something though.

Doesn't it feel like this happens every time we have a decent shot of cold air? I have noticed both the NAM and the GFS have been trending to put the precip further south of the OKC metro along a line about 40 miles parallel of I-44. I guess it's officially the sit and wait until we are into Rapid Refresh. I don't even know if there has been any weather balloons that have put real data into the models yet.

#63 Postby **BlueIce** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:02 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Oh, you models.

ECMWF wants to drop it almost all as snow, showing widespread 6-12 inch amounts

NAM wants to drop it all as sleet/freezing rain

GFS does a little of both.

72 hours out and still don't know who will get what. Everybody is gonna get something though.

The new 18z NAM run on twisterdata.com has a snow change over between 12AM Friday and 3AM and a very nice moderate precip depiction on simulated reflectivity.

Im sure the GFS is going to come in with something that either starts to show model agreement or it will show no precip.

This couldn't be any more fun to watch unfold.

Any bets on Mike Morgan rolling out the full crazy tonight on KFOR?

ouamber · #64 Postby **ouamber** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:08 pm

LOL at the clown NAM map showing 12-14 inches for MBY in Tulsa!!! Riiiiiggghtt

TwisterFanatic · #65 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:17 pm

ouamber wrote:LOL at the clown NAM map showing 12-14 inches for MBY in Tulsa!!! Riiiiiggghtt

Well, if it's gonna snow, it better do it right. None of that 6-8 inch little league stuff.

#66 Postby **BlueIce** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:38 pm

ouamber wrote:LOL at the clown NAM map showing 12-14 inches for MBY in Tulsa!!! Riiiiiggghtt

Here is that NAM Snow graph you were LOL'ing at...

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

TwisterFanatic · #67 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:38 pm

Haven't looked over it totally, but it seems the 18z GFS is leaning towards the more snow bandwagon right now.

ouamber · #68 Postby **ouamber** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:02 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Haven't looked over it totally, but it seems the 18z GFS is leaning towards the more snow bandwagon right now.

You mean Snowmeggon 2013?

Apparently, NE OK doesn't know how to have just 3-4 inches...we just go for Blizzards and feet of snow. Unfortunately, we are due. We have had nothing the last two years. Guess it's an all or nothing with us! I still don't believe that crazy map! GFS says 6-8...but it could be like 9-11.

All I do know is that next week it's gonna be friggin' cold!!! While people will be getting bread, milk, and toilet paper tonight...I'll be stocking up on firewood and wine!:) :cold:

#69 Postby **BlueIce** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:06 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Haven't looked over it totally, but it seems the 18z GFS is leaning towards the more snow bandwagon right now.

Yep agree with that it doesn't have the same totals as the 18z NAM but the cooridor is almost identical. Seeing model convergence forming now. Let's see what 0z holds for us.

Meteorcane · #70 Postby **Meteorcane** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:48 pm

00z NAM sticking to its guns, possibly even more bullish on snow for most of oklahoma rather than the mixed precip it was showing earlier.

TwisterFanatic · #71 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 11:08 pm

Pretty good shift south though on the NAM.

ouamber · #72 Postby **ouamber** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 11:37 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Pretty good shift south though on the NAM.

Doesn't the models usually move north and south up until the time it starts. I suspect it will move North again on the 6z suite.

TwisterFanatic · #73 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 11:39 pm

GFS is also trending south, has been all day.

#74 Postby **BlueIce** » Tue Dec 03, 2013 11:59 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:GFS is also trending south, has been all day.

Not really both the 18z NAM and GFS have the heaviest precip on the I-44 cooridor.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2. ... TIONID=TLX

TwisterFanatic · #75 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:51 am

I just noticed something I've never noticed, the snowfall maps on twisterdata and Earl Barker's page don't match.

For example on the 0z GFS

Twisterdata: Heaviest snowfall from Wichita Falls, TX up to McAlester, OK and up into Fayetteville, AR

Wxcaster: Heaviest snowfall from Oklahoma City to Tulsa into Joplin, MO.

Anybody know why it's like that?

#76 Postby **lester** » Wed Dec 04, 2013 5:02 am

TwisterFanatic wrote:I just noticed something I've never noticed, the snowfall maps on twisterdata and Earl Barker's page don't match.

For example on the 0z GFS

Twisterdata: Heaviest snowfall from Wichita Falls, TX up to McAlester, OK and up into Fayetteville, AR

Wxcaster: Heaviest snowfall from Oklahoma City to Tulsa into Joplin, MO.

Anybody know why it's like that?

Different algorithms that go into these snowfall maps I'd assume. The snowfall maps are assuming that the snowfall ratios will be 10:1, which may or may not happen.

TwisterFanatic · #77 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Wed Dec 04, 2013 5:27 am

NWS raised the Freezing Rain amounts for SE and East Central OK in a big way. Before about .10-.15, now .50+ of Freezing rain with the wind supposed to blow 25-30 MPH out of the north, it could be real bad if that pans out, would be a 4 on the Sperry-Spitz Index.

TwisterFanatic · #78 Postby **TwisterFanatic** » Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:16 am

Already turning colder across Oklahoma. There is a 'leading' edge of the front that is dropping temps 10-15 degrees then the punch of sub-freezing air comes in a 3 hours later.

#79 Postby **BlueIce** » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:24 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:I just noticed something I've never noticed, the snowfall maps on twisterdata and Earl Barker's page don't match.

For example on the 0z GFS

Twisterdata: Heaviest snowfall from Wichita Falls, TX up to McAlester, OK and up into Fayetteville, AR

Wxcaster: Heaviest snowfall from Oklahoma City to Tulsa into Joplin, MO.

Anybody know why it's like that?

I noticed that too. It might also be the projection of the map. Because the data looks the same it's just off by 60 miles on either side.

ouamber · #80 Postby **ouamber** » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:30 pm

12z Euro "Snow" numbers. I just pulled what I could see. Some of the numbers are so small, it's hard to read.

Chanute, KS: 0.6"
Bartlesville, OK: 2.3"
OKC: Around 6" for everyone
Tulsa: 5.1 North-6.2 South"
Joplin: 3.7"
Monett, MO: 5.2"
Springfield: 4.2"
NW Arkansas area: 6-6.3"
Ft. Smith: Looks like 6.6" but might be 8.6"
Little Rock: 5.4-6.x"

Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

Re:

Re:

Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

Re:

Re:

Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

Re: Re:

Re: Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

Who is online