Ohio Valley and Eastern KY Winter 2013-2014

[brunota2003]

It wasn't an overachiever for us. We warmed up to 51 on Friday (forecast high was 38), which really delayed the transition to snow and we only picked up about 1/2 an inch.

[WeatherGuesser]

ACUS48 KWNS 160958
SPC AC 160958

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
RECENT MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL RUNS SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY/SIMILARITY
THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6/FRI. 2-21/...WITH A LARGE TROUGH PROGGED TO
EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME -- AND THEN PERSIST THERE
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES DAY 4...EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE START OF DAY
5. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW SHIFTING NEWD FROM THE OK VICINITY EARLY TO THE MI VICINITY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO TX WILL LIKELY
FOCUS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR
ADVECTING NWD SUPPORTS MODEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED N
OF THE OH VALLEY...WHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINS
LIMITED TO AREAS FROM THE SRN IL/SRN INDIANA REGION SWD. THUS...THE
ZONE OF GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION -- FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SWD
ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS -- APPEARS TO BE THE ZONE WHERE SEVERE
RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE VARIOUS
MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF THE
WIND FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS AT LEAST INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
CAPE...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS SUFFICIENT WITH THE
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A RISK AREA THIS
FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO SERN
CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE RISK
DAY 6 WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO THE WRN GULF. WITH
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BEYOND DAY 6...INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
LIMITS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 02/16/2014

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D5 90,691 8,584,854 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Little Rock, AR...Clarksville, TN...


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[brunota2003]

This severe weather for us on Thursday into Thursday night is going to be interesting.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
652 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THE MAIN THREAT.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR STORM REPORTS THURSDAY NIGHT.

[tolakram]

So here we are in San Antonio, TX and expecting to drive home Sat and Sun. Yet another rain,ice,snow storm forecast for the Cincinnati area Sunday. I wonder if or when we can make it home.

I am sick and tired of this winter!

Mark, using Tapatalk

[WeatherGuesser]

409 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROCKPORT INDIANA
TO NEW MADRID MISSOURI.

* MAIN IMPACT: SIGNIFICANT ICE...SNOW...AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

* OTHER IMPACTS: SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES
AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AS WELL AS SOME
POWER OUTAGES.

[WeatherGuesser]

Experimental
Ice Impact Index

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=ice_impact_index

[WeatherGuesser]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
106 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

KYZ003>005-007-010-015-MOZ112-114-010315-
/O.EXT.KPAH.WS.A.0004.140302T1500Z-140303T1800Z/
CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-WEBSTER-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...
SMITHLAND...MARION...DIXON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
106 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* AMOUNTS...MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE APPEARS LIKELY. MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR SLEET POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SOME TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME TREACHEROUS AS TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING.

[WeatherGuesser]

Most recent images on the Ice Impact page shown above have improved dramatically as far as lesser potential damage.

Still a very long way to go until Monday night though.


Forecast temperatures have been raised for the PAH region also from what they were earlier today when they were showing Sunday closer to 30 than 40.

Saturday Night
Rain likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Calm wind becoming north northwest 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Freezing rain, possibly mixed with rain. High near 38. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Sunday Night
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 21. North wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

[WeatherGuesser]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
428 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

KYZ003>005-007-010-015-MOZ112-114-011830-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0004.140302T1500Z-140303T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0004.140302T1200Z-140303T1200Z/
CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-WEBSTER-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...
SMITHLAND...MARION...DIXON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
428 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ICE...SNOW...AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE WARNING AREA IS
GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROCKPORT INDIANA TO NEW
MADRID MISSOURI. THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* AMOUNTS...MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...TAPERING OFF
TO AROUND TWO INCHES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST TO THE PURCHASE
AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TO A HALF INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN PURCHASE
AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

* IMPACTS...AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO FREEZING OR
FROZEN...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

[WeatherGuesser]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1201 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

KYZ001-002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022-020215-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0004.140302T1500Z-140303T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.IS.W.0001.140302T2100Z-140303T1500Z/
FULTON-HICKMAN-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...MAYFIELD...BENTON...
MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
1201 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME THUNDER WILL ALLSO BE POSSIBLE. THE FREEZING RAIN
WILL FINALLY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY
MORNING.

* MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE APPEAR LIKELY. LESSOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR SLEET ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS AT LEAST ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS
EXPECTED TO GLAZE EXPOSED SURFACES. THESE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE MAY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO
THE DANGER.


Ice Impact Index above is now showing the potential to be much worse.

Don't really know what to expect.

[WeatherGuesser]

AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
202 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

This mesoscale discussion is only limited to the remainder of this
afternoon (basically through 00z Monday - 6pm CST). Adjusted
weather type, six hourly and storm total QPF, Snow Amount, and Ice
Accumulation grids to reflect mesoscale changes through 6 pm CST.

Most of the convective elements (i.e., thunderstorms and nearby
showers) have been running within the 13km RAP 0-3km Most Unstable
Cape with values in excess of 140-170 Joules/Kilogram oriented
along the ridge of maximum values. Within these elements, the
updrafts are intermixing ice crystal and supercooled water
droplets generating sleet, common with the thunderstorms.

Outside these updrafts, conversion back to freezing rain will be
likely with the loss of decent ice nuclei in the favored dendritic
zone.

The compensating factor toward the support of more sleet with time is
the deepening cold layer above 2.5 kft as of 18-19z Sunday. This layer
of cold air should increase closer to 3.4 kft (using KPAH as
reference point) by 00z Monday.

Modified the Noon to 6 PM CST rainfall, sleet (included in the
snow amount grids), and ice accumulation this afternoon. Some
modification of at least 0.03-0.05" QPF upward adjustment was made
over part of the area where anticipated thunderstorm development
is forecast for the rest of this afternoon. This may be underdone,
but am also trying to take into account some precipitation loading
of above freezing water in heavy downpours, as well as diabatic
effects.

The target area for enhanced ice development during the mid-
afternoon will be from Qulin and New Madrid Missouri, Cairo IL
and Fulton KY, Paducah and Mayfield, KY, Marion and Dawson Springs
KY, and Owensboro and Sacramento KY. Further north will be more
focus toward sleet (deeper sub-freezing layer), with locations further
southeast seeing an increasing concern for freezing rain into the
late afternoon.

&&

[WeatherGuesser]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

.UPDATE...
Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

Plan on no changes to the current winter warnings now in place
over the region. It now appears that the greatest icing potential
will be limited mainly to locations of the southern
Purchase/Pennyrile in wrn KY. It seems as tho enough cold air has
worked into areas along the Ohio River to support mostly sleet
this evening. Still major questions on how quickly the sleet can
transition over to snow from nw to se tonight. This will likely be
the deciding factor on how much snow we get, esp in areas along
and just south of the Ohio River where precip amounts are likely
to be quite significant. Current thinking is that the snow line
will work south to along the Ohio River by around midnight, then
work its way into the srn Pennyrile by around 3 or 4 AM.

Latest satellite and radar trends suggest this system is really
getting its act together over AR this afternoon. Precip has
lightened up in many locations, but this should not fool anyone.
Heavy precip will likely move back into many locations overnight,
esp areas along and south of the Ohio River. Latest 18z NAM now
suggests an additional 1.5 to 2 inches of QPF between 21Z this
afternoon and 15z Monday from far se MO right through most of wrn
KY. Though will not go this extreme right now, still could be more
extensive icing through the evening over the srn Pennyrile and
Purchase of wrn KY, with another round of heavy sleet up along the
OH River. Farther north, we should see a change to snow this
evening.

Around midnight, we expect the sleet to transition over to snow
over far se MO and northern parts of wrn KY. The snow should then
continue within the deformation zone through around 7 or 8 AM.
This should allow for a good 6 hours of decent snow, and there
may even be localized banding in the deformation zone of srn IL
and wrn KY. Snow amounts in the 4 to 6 inch range could become
widespread, with locally higher accumulations within bands.
Northerly winds 20 to 30 MPH will cause considerable
blowing/drifting of what snow does fall. With sfc temps in the
teens, wind chill values could easily reach 0 to 10 below in many
locations by Monday morning.

Arctic high pressure following the system Monday night and Tuesday
will likely bring single digit temps at night with highs only in
the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A rather uneventful weather pattern will take hold through the
remainder of the week. Stratified upper level flow will tend to keep
any weather systems either north or south of the immediate region
through Friday. The core of arctic high pressure will shift across
southeast Canada and the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by
Thursday. The forecast region will be on the southern periphery of
this high. As a result, expect unseasonably cold weather to start
the week. As the week progresses, the combination of slowly warming
temperatures and an increasing March sun angle should help to slowly
erode the snow and ice cover that will be in place at the beginning
of the week. After a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures,
expect highs to climb into the 30s on Wednesday, 40s Thursday, and
perhaps even near 50 by Friday.

By late week, both the GFS and ECMWF bring another piece of energy
east across the Plains with an approaching cold front. Both models
are not quite in agreement with respect to timing, but the general
idea yields our next chance of precipitation by the weekend. As a
result, we continue the slight chance of rain Friday night and
Saturday. At this point, temperatures appear warm enough to support
mainly liquid precipitation Friday night and Saturday. However,
temperatures may be cold enough by Saturday night for a mix of rain
or snow.

[brunota2003]

Well...we finally warmed up for a few days and then BAM! Another 1.5" of snow Sunday evening into Sunday night. So ready for warmer weather! But I hear tale it's going to get cold again by the end of the week, after a brief moderation. At least "cold" this time isn't -7!

[brunota2003]

Well, winter just doesn't want to completely go away. The last few days have been chilly, with highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the mid 30s. Brrr.

[WeatherGuesser]

Yeah, low 40s at night, mid 60s daytime.

Haven't even put the AC in the window yet.

Hopefully JUL/AUG won't be payback time.