Ohio Valley and Eastern KY Winter 2013-2014

[brunota2003]

Looking at the 18Z HRRR...it only goes through 4 am. I am in nothing for total snow at 9 pm...by 4 am, I am in 6-8 inches, with 8-10 inches about 15 miles to my west, with a few spots of 10-12 inches. And it is still snowing at the end of the run! We end up with a couple hours of 1-2 inch, or even 2-3 inch, and hour snowfall rates! This is going to be crazy. I heard the NAM came in even wetter this most recent run, and drops over a foot in some parts of central and eastern KY! Over a foot of heavy, wet snow...wow.

[brunota2003]

Oh...and thunder:

A CROSS SECTION ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY REVEALS A NEGATIVE AREA OF SATURATED EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE...SUGGESTING SOME POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES AS THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW TAKES
PLACE. THUS...GIVEN THE EXPECT 0.75 TO 0.90 OF LIQUID MODELS ARE
PUTTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH...A BAND OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS EVEN LIKELY. BASED ON UPSTREAM
TRENDS...IT APPEARS THE I-64 CORRIDOR SEEMS TO THE BE THE TARGET
GROUND FOR THE BEST SNOWFALL. PLAN TO INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
WORDING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

[brunota2003]

This is so frustrating...we were supposed to of switched over to snow by now, and all we've gotten is a little sleet and a coldddd rain at 34F! GO AWAY WARM AIR!

[WeatherGuesser]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 AM CST MON FEB 03 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT PADUCAH KENTUCKY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 6.2 INCHES WAS SET AT PADUCAH KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 2ND. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3 INCHES...SET
IN 1976.

[WeatherGuesser]

Comparison chart for the last two months from last year to this year. While colder overall (as expected) indicated by the averages noted to the right, I was somewhat surprised by how similar the line contours are.

[tolakram]

We got a dusting to maybe a quarter of an inch last night while we expected 2 to 3. Tough to call these borderline storms.

We had been in Owensboro Saturday for a robotics competition and after looking at the forecast I decided to head home very early Sunday morning. Thankfully the weather held for the competition and everyone was able to get home safely.

[WeatherGuesser]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY MIDDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM JUST EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL RACE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MIDDAY TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE FROM AROUND
MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST TO NEAR GREENVILLE MISSOURI.
THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS
WILL BE A CONCERN...AS WILL THE CONCERN FOR ICE ON TREES AND POWER
LINES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL VS. FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET. THAT IS THE REASON FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.
DETERMINING THE RAIN VS. FREEZING RAIN LINE WILL BE TOUGH AS WELL
INTO WEST KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL AND ITS
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>005-007-010-014-015-
018-019-040430-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.A.0003.140204T1800Z-140205T0600Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-
LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...SMITHLAND...MARION...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO
229 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING...FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO PETERSBURG INDIANA. AMOUNTS UP
TO FOUR INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND ADJACENT OHIO RIVER COUNTIES IN WEST KENTUCKY...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND ICE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS PROBABLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD GREATLY IMPACT
TRAVEL. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS. THIS WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF WINTER STORM CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

$$

NOLES

[WeatherGuesser]

What sucks is that if I lose power, I lose the web. I can power up with a generator and the TelCo CO has backup power, but the DSL booster between here are there does not.

[WeatherGuesser]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND LAST INTO TONIGHT.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>005-007-010-014-015-
018-019-041800-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0003.140204T1800Z-140205T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0003.140204T1800Z-140205T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-
LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...SMITHLAND...MARION...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO
449 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM VIENNA ILLINOIS TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA.
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SNOW WILL BE MIXED WITH
SLEET...GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IS FORECAST. SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PADUCAH TO OWENSBORO...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IN THIS AREA...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SLEET ACCUMULATION AS WELL.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE PROBABLE. WHERE ICING
OCCURS...IT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...WHICH WILL MAKE
TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

[tolakram]

Going to be a real mess for us.

ILN morning discussion.

000
FXUS61 KILN 041143
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES TO OUR AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING
FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
CIRRUS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL ORGANIZE AND TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AT THE VERY
END OF THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A LARGE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
EVENING. THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON GEOGRAPHICAL
SECTOR IMPACTS IN THE ILN CWA. OF FIRST NOTE...A SLIGHT DEVIATION
OF THE CURRENTLY FORECAST STORM TRACK WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN POTENTIAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE
TRANSITION ZONES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

FROM THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS METRO AREAS NORTHWARD...AN ALL SNOW EVENT
IS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THE HIGHEST QPF AND THUS
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RUN RIGHT ACROSS THE DAYTON AREA...AND
JUST NORTH OF COLUMBUS. TOTALS ALONG THIS SWATH OF HIGHEST
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL COULD RECEIVE UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS
STORM. SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE MOST INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN AROUND 9 PM
TONIGHT...AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW RATES WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER 3 AM WITH THE BULK OF SNOW ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

BETWEEN THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS METRO AREAS AND CINCINNATI...A HYBRID
EVENT WITH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT IS IN THESE
LOCATIONS WHERE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN STORM TRACK AND INFILTRATION OR
LACK THEREOF OF WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MAINLY SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR WITH A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS DELINEATION BETWEEN SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE
EVENING...AS THE APPROACHING LOW DRAWS WARMER AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THIS TRANSITION AREA. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 71 CORRIDOR BEFORE A TRANSITION
OCCURS. SOUTH OF THE 71 CORRIDOR...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD OCCUR WITH SOME LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...PERHAPS IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE. THIS PARTICULAR AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE CINCINNATI
METRO AREA...COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. DUE TO THE OF UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
TRACK AND HENCE THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER SNOW/ICE IS THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT IN THESE LOCATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR BOTH ICE AND SNOW. AND AM
MENTIONING IN THIS DISCUSSION THE POTENTIAL THAT AN UPGRADE TO ICE
STORM WARNING COULD OCCUR IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER THAT
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE MAINLY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

WELL SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR...MUCH LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THESE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIE IN HOW COLD THE NEW SNOW PACK WILL
KEEP NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. A SUPPORTING FACTOR IN THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES IS THAT FORECAST LOW LEVEL WINDS STAYING
NORTHEASTERLY UNTIL THE LOW PASSES BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT TO FALL BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS...PREVENTING SURFACE WARM
ADVECTION. SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN UP TO A QUARTER
OF ICE IN THESE ZONES AS A RESULT. AGAIN...THE UNCERTAINTY HERE IS
THAT SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH COULD TRANSITION THESE ZONES INTO A
PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT. IT APPEARS EITHER WAY THAT PRECIP WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. RAINFALL OVER FRESH SNOW PACK FROM MONDAY
NIGHT STORM WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE ZONES. AND...BASED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS...HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...ALL PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW
WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING IN BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WOULD HAVE
OCCURRED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE COLD ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE LOW RACES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THE PCPN WILL TAPER DOWN FROM SW TO NE. FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION THE PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AT 12Z WED. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE SE COUNTIES WHERE AN AREA OF WINTRY MIX WILL STILL
BE LINGERING. THIS AREA SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MIGHT RECOVER A FEW DEGREES LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION...WED
NGT INTO THU. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM JUST ABOVE ZERO
IN THE NW TO THE TEENS IN THE SE. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
TEENS IN THE NW AND THE MID 20S IN THE SE.

THE HIGH BUILDS UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT YESTERDAYS ECMWF BROUGHT TO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI IS NOW DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES US...SO THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY STILL LOOKS DRY.

MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS
HAS BECOME COLDER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM. ITS SFC LOW IS
MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN...AS IT NOW LIFTS UP INTO
ERN KY/ERN OH. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WILL RUN WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ON SATURDAY...THEN TAKES THE SFC LOW ACROSS GA/CAROLINA AND
UP THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE FA AND ANOTHER RAIN...SNOW...MIXED PCPN SYSTEM FOR THE SE.

THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPING TOWARD 00Z
AND CONTINUING ON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRENGTHENING 50-60 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL ROTATE UP INTO OUR REGION
AHEAD OF THE LOW. EXPECT PCPN TO START OFF AS PRIMARILY SNOW...BUT
AS WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS UP INTO THE AREA...SNOW WILL MIX
WITH/CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS EVENING. THE TIMING
AND NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS CHANGE OVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
AND WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT KCVG/KLUK/KILN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN FIRST...POSSIBLY WORKING UP TOWARD KCMH/KLCK LATE
IN THE EVENING. KDAY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ALL SNOW. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS. A BIT OF A DRY SLOT WILL WORK UP INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR PCPN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL

[brunota2003]

We got a dusting to maybe a quarter of an inch last night while we expected 2 to 3. Tough to call these borderline storms.

We had been in Owensboro Saturday for a robotics competition and after looking at the forecast I decided to head home very early Sunday morning. Thankfully the weather held for the competition and everyone was able to get home safely.

I know the feeling...we were supposed to get 6 to 8 inches of snow, instead we got rain with a back end snow. Ended up with a 0.1 inch of very slushy sleet and 0.3 inches of snow. Oh, and did I mention rain?

[WeatherGuesser]

Getting a mix right now. It was all snow, but seems to have changed into something else.

[brunota2003]

I'm just hoping our temps stay up. Currently at 33.9, but with the sun starting to go down, it'll probably start dropping here within the next couple hours. With rain coming in, I'd rather have a cold 33F rain (as miserable as that is), than freezing rain. 16Z HRRR is showing the precip moving in between 6 and 7 pm, and us being in freezing rain for the first 4 hours or so...not good.

[WeatherGuesser]

We seem to be around 31 with rain. I'm seeing some icing, but not a lot so far.

I thought I heard thunder a while ago, but it might have been something else.

[Portastorm]

We seem to be around 31 with rain. I'm seeing some icing, but not a lot so far.

I thought I heard thunder a while ago, but it might have been something else.

Please provide your location in your profile. When you make posts like this they're almost of no value because we have no idea where you live.

[WeatherGuesser]

This is getting reeeeeaaaalllyy freakin' OLD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1138 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

.A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

ILZ090-092>094-KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022-MOZ108>112-114-072200-
/O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0009.140208T0000Z-140208T1200Z/
POPE-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLCONDA...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...
METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...
MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...
CADIZ...PRINCETON...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...DONIPHAN...
POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1138 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO
PADUCAH KENTUCKY...TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY.

* ACCUMULATIONS... FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF DRY POWDERY SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

* TIMING... MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES...BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM IN
FAR WEST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS...AND
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

* MAIN IMPACT... ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

* OTHER IMPACTS... COLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES TONIGHT
WILL REDUCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SOME MELTING AGENTS SUCH AS
ROCK SALT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

[brunota2003]

We just got 1.9" of snow this evening/early morning, as of my 2 am measurement. Hearing talks of a possible big snowstorm for eastern (and possibly central) KY in the Wednesday time frame. It'll all come down to where the storm sets up...further west (inland) means more snow, further east (offshore) means little to no snow...we'll see.

[tolakram]

We got two dustings over the weekend. With the ice blocks chipped from the driveway it looks like the front yard is a glacier. We need a thaw!

[WeatherGuesser]

We need a thaw!

We need an Understatement smiley.

[tolakram]

So much for the thaw. It was 40F yesterday and felt warm enough to eat lunch outside.

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

The little clipper coming towards us is yet another over achiever.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ078-079-081-088-142245-
/O.UPG.KILN.WW.Y.0009.140214T1500Z-140215T0700Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0006.140214T1500Z-140215T0700Z/
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-
GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-CLERMONT-BROWN-
ADAMS-SCIOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RISING SUN...VEVAY...CARROLLTON...
WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...OWENTON...
WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVET...
MAYSVILLE...VANCEBURG...MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...WEST UNION...
PORTSMOUTH
942 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SNOW WILL
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE.