SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[vbhoutex]

Is it time yet?
Woke up to 55f here at the house.

[PTrackerLA]

55 here this morning as well. Coolest temperature in almost 5 months here. I'd say it's time! I'd be willing to bet we see some hard freezes this winter after two years of not getting below 28. Don't tell my Queen palms that though they are very happy this year!

[vbhoutex]

LOL!! I'm not telling my Hibiscus plants either!! They were very happy this last Winter. We had 55 this morning too. Lowest since early May.

[CajunMama]

BRING ON THE CHILL!!!!!!!!!!! I can't wait for this cold front.

[Jagno]

WooHoo, I finally got to wear my new sweater this evening. Only getting down to upper 40's tonight before a warm up again for the first of the week, more rain Tuesday and Wednesday then another tease of cool air on Friday. Hey, as long as we get a few shots of cooler temps below 50º it kills off the mosquito population. LOL I'll take it.

[PTrackerLA]

Absolutely gorgeous weekend with lows in the 40's and highs in the 60's to near 70! Don't see any real cold shots of air coming down for the next two weeks so doesn't look like we'll have an early frost this year. It's been two winters now without even a hard freeze so I'd say we are overdue for the chill!

[vbhoutex]

BBBRRR!!!!
The latest from Jeff Lindner:

Model guidance continues to be in good agreement on a strong cold front reaching the area on Tuesday.

Large cold high pressure cell has dislodged out of NW Canada and is starting is southward progress into the US this afternoon. Arctic boundary has crossed the US border and will arrive into TX early Tuesday and push off the TX coast Tuesday evening. Howling NW winds and falling temperatures can be expected with the frontal passage on Tuesday. ENE to NE surface flow will keep moisture limited ahead of this boundary so not expecting much of any rainfall. Temperatures will fall from the 60/70 on Tuesday into the upper 40’s north of I-10 by sunset.

Main forecast focus will surround low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Should continue to see winds in the 10-15mph range into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and this will not be conducive to sub-freezing temps. across the region. Freeze line will at least approach our northern counties early Wednesday, but not expecting a widespread freeze on Wednesday AM. Highs on Wednesday may struggle to reach the lower to mid 50’s which is well below normal for mid-November. Better shot at more widespread freezing temperatures appears possible Thursday morning as winds go calm, but models are also hinting at high level moisture in the form of cirrus clouds possibly blanketing the area leading to temperatures remaining above freezing. Pretty much a toss up at this range as to if locations freeze Thursday AM or not, the potential is certainly there.

Cold polar high shifts eastward late Thursday and models roar moisture back into the region. Given the expectation of this front to clear the entire Gulf, models may be over-estimating current moisture return for Thursday and Friday. However, the moisture eventually comes back by Friday and into the weekend with next weekend looking wet with SW flow aloft and numerous disturbances passing across the area.

Long range models hinting at another strong polar surge around the 18/19 of the month.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we'll flirt with freezing for the next two nights and then warm up for the weekend. I just checked out the 12z Euro and it looks COLD for next Wednesday compared to this cold snap. I'd say 850mb temps could indicate upper 20's for this area.

[vbhoutex]

The lows in the Houston area are supposed to be in the low to mid 30s in the morning. Currently 55f with light winds in the city. If we are going to get down to those lows the heavy cloud cover we currently have needs to go away. Makes you wonder if the OCMs are bothering to look out the window before they write their forecasts.

[CajunMama]

Thank goodness it's only cold one night and then the warmup begins on Thursday. I like cool, not cold.

[vbhoutex]

It cleared overnight and we got down to 35f here at the house. May actually flirt with freezing in the morning with good radiational cooling conditions available tonight. Warms up for the weekend.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, but not as warm as first graphed (GFS). I am thinking we may not see 80s here.

[vbhoutex]

Watching the skies this affternoon. Wispy high clouds showing up as well as some mid-level clouds to the SE of the area. Haven't checked anything yet, but perhaps the return flow from the SE is happening earlier than expected? Other possibility is a disturbance moving across the area on the STJ. Any answers from anyone so that I don't have to research?

[pwrdog]

Looks like a close call on snow for northern SE Texas as the cold core moves over Tuesday.....

[CajunMama]

A little snippet from LC NWS (enough that I'll be up waiting and watching )

THERE IS A QUESTION ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ABOUT WINTER PRECIP. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES DURING THAT TIME...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS STILL
VERY LOW ON THIS EVENT OCCURRING.

[LaBreeze]

A little snippet from LC NWS (enough that I'll be up waiting and watching )

THERE IS A QUESTION ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ABOUT WINTER PRECIP. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES DURING THAT TIME...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS STILL
VERY LOW ON THIS EVENT OCCURRING.

Do you think that it'll be enough to wait up and watch, CajunMama? I know that it's something to hope for - I just don't know yet.

[CajunMama]

I'll probably be up anyway preparing casseroles for Thanksgiving day. I'll just keep peeking out the door!

[LaBreeze]

I'll probably be up anyway preparing casseroles for Thanksgiving day. I'll just keep peeking out the door!

Sounds like me as well - I'm in charge of the cooking this year.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like a close call on snow for northern SE Texas as the cold core moves over Tuesday.....

Right now radar and the temp(38f) are saying no, but this is Monday not Tuesday. Of definite interest is the obvious, at least to weather geeks, new impulse developing over far SW TX and N Mexico and heading NE. If that develops enough and the colder air comes in we could be changing the tune. Not predicting it to happen, but looking at the possibility. Also watching the ULL over CO and NM that is diving S and SE which is a cold core low that might give us the possibility too. Problem there will be if there is any moisture available for the cold to freeze and drop.

[vbhoutex]

I might get in trouble with Portastorm, but I think this goes here. It is the latest from Jeff Lindner. It kind of touches on the possibilities I mentioned above.

Winter Storm in progress over TX this morning with ice/snow across much of western TX extending into the Hill Country and eastward to just west of Fort Worth.

Locally widespread rainfall has developed as expected over the region with amounts thus far in the .25 to .75 of an inch range across the area. Temperatures have cooled into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s with the onset of the rainfall and evaporative cooling, but this process has now ended and the low level thermal profile is now isothermal. Expect temperatures to hold around 40 degrees the entire day and into tonight. Soundings this morning at both LCH and CRP show the freezing level way up at around 12,000 ft with significant warming from the surface to about 800mb. This sounding supports nothing more than cold rain and there have been no sleet reports across SE TX this morning.

Today:

Upper level storm system over NM/NW TX will dive SE toward C TX and the middle TX coast by early Tuesday. This will drive the formation of a surface low off of Brownsville which is underway at this time. Bands of rainfall will continue to develop as warm moist Gulf air is forced up and over the cold arctic dome at the surface. 10C 850mb temperature line appears to match well with the model QPF of heavier rainfall amounts running near/just south of US 59. In fact the radar trends this morning appear to be lining up very well with short term model guidance from yesterday evening suggesting the heaviest rains near/just south of US 59. May see a brief break in the widespread rainfall this afternoon late before the onset of strong dynamical forcing tonight associated with the main upper level storm system.

Tonight-Tuesday Midday:

Strong upper level system drops SE in an unusual track across TX. Impressive 110kt mid level jet streak rounds the base of this feature after dark out of NE MX and carves across the coastal bend into SE TX. Expect strong forcing to generate more rainfall especially along the coast. Surface low off of Brownsville currently will track NE and across our southern coastal waters tonight with winds shifting from the NE to N and NW with time. This feature will help draw the highest moisture levels eastward which becomes very important by early Tuesday.

P-type:

Cold temperatures aloft begin to overspread the region tonight with the most notable cooling noted across our western and northern counties. This cooling is in response to the cold pocket associated with the core of the upper level low. HRRR forecast soundings for College Station at 600am Tuesday show nearly the entire column (except maybe the lowest 1,000ft) falling below freezing and saturated below 800mb with a large dry layer above that. As is usually the case in this area the “great” battle between the arriving cold air aloft and the amount of available moisture will determine if any frozen precipitation falls. Forecast soundings certainly show significant cooling of the air column between midnight and 600am north of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line, but at the same time moisture is rapidly being carried eastward away from the area. With that said, the position of the core of the upper level feature potentially just SW of the area between Houston and Matagorda Bay could result in some moisture being wrapped back NW around the northern side of the upper low and falling as snow.

It is fairly rare to have P-type rain to snow over SE TX with upper level lows as they usually track just north of the area over N TX. Usually the cold air is lagging the moisture and the rain shuts off prior to it being cold enough for snow. Of the 3 major snow events in the last decade (Dec 04, Dec 08, Dec 09) only the Dec 08 event shows some similarities to the potential for Tuesday morning and that event was pretty much a surprise and dropped upwards of 6 inches of snow in Liberty County.

For now think that most of the moisture will have been carried east of the area by the time the air column can support the changeover. With that said would not be surprised to see some light snow reports N and W of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston early Tuesday. Will have to keep a close eye on this part of the forecast this afternoon and evening as the short range guidance can better resolve this period to determine if any greater amounts of moisture would be present which would increase the chances for snow. Even if snow does fall, the surface temperatures are expected to remain above freezing resulting in melting on contact with the ground.

Wednesday-Friday:

Winter storm moves east of the state with dry cold NW flow in control. Clearing skies on Wednesday will set the stage for what appears to be a fairly widespread freeze on Thanksgiving morning. Could see lows well below freezing over our northeast counties with many areas falling into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. Some area have yet to freeze this fall so a freezing warning will likely be needed. High temperatures should finally break 50 on Thanksgiving day and may reach close to 60 on Friday.

Note: while it seems like a long time ago, the high temperature for Houston last Sunday was a toasty 85 degrees, the high yesterday a week later was 50.