Northeast Winter 2013-2014

[HurricaneDREW92]

Post any and all related subject here.

[gatorcane]

As starters, check out the low the 12Z ECMWF is showing at 216 hours in the Canadian Maritimes ...

There is another big one behind that too. Should provide quite a surge of cold air into the Northeastern U.S. if it verifies.

[Bizzles]

Are we merging Mid-Atlantic into Northeast this year or should I start a Mid-Atlantic 2013-2014 Thread?

Excited for this winter...especially after this flop of a season in the Atlantic...

[vbhoutex]

Feel free to start a Mid-Atlantic Winter thread. Please make it clear what area it covers so we don't get overlaps of coverage.

[gatorcane]

Possible Noreaster setting up? Check out the latest ECMWF:

168 hours:


192 hours:

[cycloneye]

If what GFS shows pans out,it would be a very strong Noreaster for Thanksgiving day.

[cycloneye]

TWC has named this future Winter Storm as Boreas. Let's see how things evolve as time goes by.

The storm is getting organized in Arizona.

[CronkPSU]

flying up on Tuesday night into Newark....kids and I would love some snow for Thanksgiving, what's the latest? Have family in the Poconos so I am guessing looking good for them, not so good for my dad's house in Union though?

[cycloneye]

flying up on Tuesday night into Newark....kids and I would love some snow for Thanksgiving, what's the latest? Have family in the Poconos so I am guessing looking good for them, not so good for my dad's house in Union though?

Here is the latest.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUILDING
EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST LIFTS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
SATURDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL
GIVE WAY TO PHASING BRANCHES OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET
STREAMS. IT IS THIS PHASING THAT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHICH COULD RESULT IN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
THEIR INDIVIDUAL SOLNS. WHILE THE EC AND ITS ENS MEAN HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE
CMC/SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AND EVEN THE END OF TODAYS 12Z NAM
RUN...WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE THE SLOWER/FURTHER OFFSHORE GFS AND
FASTER UKMET COME BETTER INTO LINE BEFORE COMPLETELY SUBMITTING TO
THIS SOLN. SINCE IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL
BE IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY...BUT AM PURPOSELY REFRAINING FROM GOING CATEGORICAL UNTIL
THE GFS/UKMET JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON.

COLD BUT DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND WAA ENSUES. HIGHS SHOULD BREAK THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND.
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SW MON NIGHT WITH WEAK WAA CONTINUING
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW TRACKS FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. MIGHT BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL AFFECT LOW
TEMPS MON NIGHT.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW
TRACKING UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST. WHILE MUCH OF
THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS LIQUID...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF A MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
THE VERY EXTREME PORTION OF WESTERN ORANGE COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN TO THE AREA. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE IF ANY LINGERING PRECIP COINCIDES WITH A COLDER AIRMASS
WORKING IN. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ON WED WITH THE STORM
STRENGTHENING...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING WED NIGHT AND THU AS HIGH
PRES BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN.

A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ON FRI COULD ALSO TRIGGER SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S TUE
AND WED BEFORE FALLING BACK IN TO THE 30S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK

[cycloneye]

Here is the 12z GFS for Wednesday 27th. Rain/sleet for coast and snow for the interior.

[CronkPSU]

thanks Cyclone! Please keep us updated

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM DURING THE HEIGHT OF THANKSGIVING TRAVEL DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MON NIGHT AND A CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE TWO WILL MERGE INTO A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW TRACKING UP
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH A SOLN CLOSER TO THE
COAST...LIKE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. IT DOES REMAIN THE EASTERNMOST SOLN OF ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER W OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. THIS TREND WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE AS THE STORM LIFTS
OUT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND IF
THERE IS STILL PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLN. THE NAM HAS UPWARDS OF 5-7 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. INDICATIONS OF A 60-70 KT LLJ
EXIST...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE INVERTED AND WOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THIS ALOFT. BEHIND THE STORM...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT APPEAR TO BE SUB-ADVSY AT THIS TIME.

THE PRES GRADIENT DECREASES THU NIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE NE WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED. BUT WILL FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.--


.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR THE TRI-
STATE AREA TUE AFTN THROUGH WED EVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER/SOIL CONDITIONS...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED UNLESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES ARE CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

[cycloneye]

The latest from this mornings discussion.


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --FOR TONIGHT...SOME SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE
ABUNDANT AND THE TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE SOUTHEAST...ONE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER INTO THE GULF. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BE APPROACHING. LOWS WERE A MAV/MET BLEND YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

THEREAFTER THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
COASTAL FRONT AND LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. THE COASTAL FRONT WILL BE ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SETTING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND REORIENTATION OF ITS AXIS TO A MORE MERIDIONAL ONE. THIS WILL
HELP TRANSPORT OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO 1 TO 1.7 INCHES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS AROUND DOUBLE THE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE HAZARDS OF HEAVY RAIN...SOME WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAINLY...HIGHER WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST. HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL BRING DOWN A FRACTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 800 TO 850 MB OF 60-70 KT...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING
AT SOME PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. WITH WINTRY PRECIP...INITIAL
ONSET WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A QUICK COATING OF
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THEREAFTER TOWARDS TUESDAY
EVENING...GREATER WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 800 AND 950 MB TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ICE. INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE LIGHTER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND TERRAIN BLOCKAGE MAY KEEP SOME
AREAS BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE LONGER. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN...CONFINED TO PARTS OF ORANGE
COUNTY FROM LATEST FORECAST THINKING.

THE PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A LOWERING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE LOW ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS IT ENDS. WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON THANKSGIVING...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION...HOWEVER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. SO...EXPECT A DRY BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY END OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

[cycloneye]

BigB0882, as time gets closer to Christmas day and you make the trip to NYC you will have plenty of information about how the weather will be by that time so stay tuned to this thread.

[BigB0882]

Thanks!!

[cycloneye]

All the New England area will be in the single digits to the teens as maximum temperatures on the 11th.

[South Texas Storms]

That's actually the low temperatures for that day cycloneye. 12z temperatures are the forecasted temperatures at 7 am on the East Coast.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:
That's actually the low temperatures for that day cycloneye. 12z temperatures are the forecasted temperatures at 7 am on the East Coast.

Thanks for the clarification about the temps. But the bottomline is it will very very cold.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
That's actually the low temperatures for that day cycloneye. 12z temperatures are the forecasted temperatures at 7 am on the East Coast.

Thanks for the clarification about the temps. But the bottomline is it will very very cold.

You're welcome and you are right. It will be very cold.

[BigB0882]

How do those numbers translate to the surface? I see it says 2M temps.