Northeast Winter 2013-2014

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Meteorcane
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Re:

#21 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:27 pm

BigB0882 wrote:How do those numbers translate to the surface? I see it says 2M temps.


Basically 2m is more or less the surface (it is about the height of the average NBA player ie. 6 foot 7)
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Re: Re:

#22 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:13 pm

Meteorcane wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:How do those numbers translate to the surface? I see it says 2M temps.


Basically 2m is more or less the surface (it is about the height of the average NBA player ie. 6 foot 7)


Oh geez, I feel dumb. M as in meter. I could have done that conversion myself. lol
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#23 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Dec 07, 2013 2:43 am

It looks like the GFS, in the really long range (15 days out or so) shows some very cold air over the north east. Am I seeing that correctly? Is it sniffing out a pattern change or just more seasonal temps? I wonder if it will stick or keep pushing it back in the time frame. Any one have anything to add to what I think I am seeing?
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#24 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Dec 07, 2013 5:01 pm

Doesn't look so cold on the 12z but still far enough out that things should keep changing. I will be in NYC in 16 days so in about a week or so I should be getting a better idea of the weather situation.
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Re: Northeast Winter 2013-2014

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:05 pm

It will be the New England areas turn to have the wintry weather tonight and Monday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-082300-
/O.CON.KALY.WW.Y.0015.131209T0300Z-131209T1700Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-
EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...
FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...
WELLSVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...
DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...
MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...
HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...
COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...
CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...
KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...
POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...
MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON
116 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...
THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING IMPACTING THE COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1241 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-090145-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0022.131208T2300Z-131209T1200Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1241 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 2 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET TONIGHT, THEN CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN MONDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO ICE UP FIRST.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

CTZ009>012-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-090200-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1118 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

...SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING WITH SLEET THIS EVENING...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SNOW MAY BE INITIALLY
LIGHT...IT CAN EASILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE...AND
WITH ANY BRIEF MODERATE OR HEAVY SNOW...VISIBILITIES WILL REDUCE
TO BELOW A HALF MILE. SOME SLEET WILL MIX IN THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE UP TO A
FEW INCHES ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES.

THIS WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES AS
WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THIS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. IF TRAVELING THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND ENCOUNTERING THESE CONDITIONS...DRIVE
EXTRA SLOWLY AND PROCEED WITH EXTRA CAUTION.
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Re: Northeast Winter 2013-2014

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:38 pm

For Big80882,12z GFS has a Nor'easter for the 20th.

Image
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#27 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Dec 08, 2013 3:52 pm

If the Noreaster can be pushed back a few days that would be great, lol How about on Christmas day? A white Christmas would be a dream come true.
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Re: Northeast Winter 2013-2014

#28 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 09, 2013 2:17 pm

I prefer to wait until 240 hours or less to see the runs and believe in what they have than long range 300+ hour runs. :) We will know more if a White Christmas will occur in NYC soon enough. :)
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Re: Northeast Winter 2013-2014

#29 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 4:20 pm

The long range looks mighty cold on Christmas. Can we just get a system to move up the East coast and bring some snow? Plenty cold enough on Christmas day if this verifies:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KNYC
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#30 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:42 pm

12z showing incredible cold around Christmas.
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Re:

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:57 pm

BigB0882 wrote:12z showing incredible cold around Christmas.


Preciptation on the 22nd. White Christmas at NYC looks low but you never know if things change. Let's see what the next runs show.

Image
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#32 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 12, 2013 9:24 pm

Even though I'm a believer the core of the cold will not be in the northeast, this may be a good thing for snow. Storms ride along the edge of the warmth and cold and up in the northeast that's ground for big nor'easters where it's always just cold enough! Especially NYC and north in a gradient pattern. However it's unlikely we'll see any blockbuster snowstorms until the AO and NAO go negative.
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#33 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Dec 12, 2013 9:29 pm

Yeah, I think the extreme cold will moderate some but I still expect highs in NYC should be around freezing or only slightly above during the time there. Any snow will probably just be an inch or so at a time, nothing huge. If it can just snow enough and stay on the ground then that would be neat on Christmas for someone from Louisiana.
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#34 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:07 pm

:uarrow: Snow event this weekend in the northeast is a good example of what could happen and I hope happens for you! The storm itself isn't actually that big, not a true nor'easter and is nearly nonexistent on 500mb but it is like a gradient pattern where plenty of moisture overruns just enough on the cold side (especially interior and further north). It's good for the pleasant kind of snow.
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#35 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:21 pm

The latest run of the GFS appears to show a lot of snow on 12/22 It would be before we get there but it should lay down snow that would stick around, with temps getting to only a little above freezing on Christmas Eve. I doubt it would all melt away. The QPF for the 22nd appears to be around 1 inch! If I am reading that right. I am sure it will continue to change, of course. Thanks for the updates.
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#36 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:22 am

The 6z GFS has NYC almost torching by Christmas Eve. Previous runs had good snow fall right before christmas. I guess if I can't have snow it would be best not to be frigid.
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#37 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Dec 19, 2013 3:28 pm

Could the Canadian be right for once?!
https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 2603578368
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#38 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 21, 2013 10:13 am

Not a great chance right now but there will be a storm traversing up the northeast from the plains Christmas day. Maybe the models will blow it and there is actually more moisture behind the cold air in another overrunning event. At the very least it will be cold up there for you bigB0882.
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#39 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Dec 21, 2013 3:47 pm

Yes. We got the cold so at least it will FEEL like Christmas!
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#40 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Dec 23, 2013 6:34 pm

NAM, Euro and GFS all showing the chance of snow showers late tomorrow into Christmas morning for parts of NJ and NYC. It is a very narrow area so hopefully we luck out and it sits on top of us!
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