Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw?

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Will ice cover exceed the 95% record?

Yes.
9
47%
Tie.
1
5%
No.
9
47%
 
Total votes: 19

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Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw?

#1 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:56 pm

Reports show nearly 90% ice cover currently with no significantly warmer weather in the immediate future.


Will ice cover exceed the 95% record?


This article doesn't seem to indicate they will: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2014/02/ ... t=rln&or=1
Last edited by WeatherGuesser on Tue Feb 24, 2015 7:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:28 pm

It is very, very difficult to get Lake Ontario to freeze over. The eastern portion is mostly shallow (minus a meteor crater near shore, but that has mostly filled in), but the central portion is very deep...and deep water takes a LOT to freeze.
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#3 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sun Feb 16, 2014 12:12 pm

I am gonna say no. Spring is coming and it looks like a warm up is on the way for this week. The bitter cold air is starting to retreat.
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#4 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:19 pm

Been hovering a bit, but coverage was 81% yesterday.

http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdat ... ea_cur.png
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You tell me where this thing is heading...

#5 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:07 am

Image

Image

90.5%

Just 4.5% away from the "all time" record and its March. This has to be a record for the first week of March but no doubt if you go back further than 1980 you will find it has happened several times. The record stat of 95% ice; when was that? I want to see an image like the one's available today and that chart that has the weekly records of ice coverage.

I'm not sure how hard the remaining 4.5% is to freeze for the record but we are going to be kissing it in short order.
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Re: You tell me where this thing is heading...

#6 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:47 am

Cyclenall wrote:The record stat of 95% ice; when was that?


From the UPI article linked above, 1979.

I think it's ice cover, not frozen solid. So, that may include floating ice.

Considering the temperature blast over the next few days, the record could be toasted. I've also noticed that the percentages have been changing considerably day to day. Just a few days ago, it was in the mid 70s range, so it seems to be increasing quite rapidly.


As far as older images, I don't see anything prior to 1992: http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea/glsea.html
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#7 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:14 am

Found this MODIS Image timestamped "03/02/2014 16:30 UTC"

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg

File size is about 130K
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#8 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:28 am

A quick tour of forecasts around the area, WI, MI and NY shows temps are expected to be well below freezing all week.
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#9 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:59 pm

The Great Lakes are now more than 90.5% ice-covered — not just a Great Lake; all of them. That’s the most ice cover in 34 years. In 1979 there was 94.7% ice cover, the largest ever recorded by scientists.

“This year we will pass that, because in the next few days it will be another 5%, easy,” said Jia Wang, a research ice climatologist for the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor.


http://www.livingstondaily.com/article/ ... /140303006
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#10 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Mar 04, 2014 6:02 am

Down to 86.4% for some reason. Maybe the wind pushing the broken ice together, leaving more open water?
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#11 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Mar 05, 2014 5:50 am

Back up to 91%
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw?

#12 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Mar 05, 2014 5:58 pm

Image

ScreenCap from this AquaModis shot from this afternoon:

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.4km.jpg
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#13 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Mar 06, 2014 6:33 am

91.8% as of 3/5/14
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#14 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:15 am

92.2% as of 3/6
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#15 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Mar 07, 2014 1:18 pm

Soooooo close, but I'm not sure it'll happen now.

Temps around the southern shores of Lakes Michigan and Erie and in the 40s as of now.
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#16 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Mar 07, 2014 1:41 pm

Fresh shot from TerraModis. Superior is hidden by clouds it seems, but that looks like a lot more open water in Lake Michigan.

Image

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw?

#17 Postby tolakram » Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:19 pm

March sun is taking it's toll I bet, regardless of the air temperature. Too bad, so close.
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#18 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:06 pm

Yeah, like the latest first Hurricane.
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#19 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:21 am

:darrow: to 90.3% with warmer weather and more sun approaching.

Oh well. :roll:
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#20 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:29 pm

Number was up again this morning to 90.8%

To the totally untrained eye, this looks like there's more ice on Ontario than the previous images:

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg

Michigan and Superior appear to be covered by clouds ( I think).
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