Texas Winter 2014-2015

[LarryWx]

February 1895, January/February 1951, and January and February 1985 were also La Nina. It shows that there are other factors like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). December 1983 and February 1989 occurred in a negative EPO.

Some cold winters have occurred in El Nino like 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2009-2010.

1903-1906 also had some very cold winters. 1904-1905 Nino may have been a super El Nino according to SOI records. It had values lower than even 1982 and 1997 and Texas experienced a string of years with cold winters and top 5 coolest summers in those years surrounding this Nino. DFW average temps were very low during this Nino not unlike 76-77, 77-78. The Atlantic was completely shut down during these several years.

Ntwx,
I have DJF 1904-5 as a weak Nino and 1905-6 as a moderate fwiw based on 3.4/JMA. Note that the extreme -SOI's didn't start til March of 05. The 04-5 winter was much colder than 05-06 (though Dec 05 was, itself, cold), which makes sense.

[Portastorm]

I really would like to use 1904-05 and 1976-77 (think JB has been touting this one as a possible analog) as possible analog winters for this coming one but both had neutral to positive PDO indices and I don't think that's going to match up for this winter. Think we're going to see neutral to negative PDO values once again. Also leaning towards a west-based or Modoki Nino event. Could be wrong though as Ntxw has the goods on ENSO and it seems like recent trends suggest maybe a more basin-wide weak event?

A lot of folks are harping on 2009-10 being a solid analog and at this point I'd have to agree as it's a closer match to historical PDO values and a Modoki Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

1903-1906 also had some very cold winters. 1904-1905 Nino may have been a super El Nino according to SOI records. It had values lower than even 1982 and 1997 and Texas experienced a string of years with cold winters and top 5 coolest summers in those years surrounding this Nino. DFW average temps were very low during this Nino not unlike 76-77, 77-78. The Atlantic was completely shut down during these several years.

:uarrow:

I really would like to use 1904-05 and 1976-77 (think JB has been touting this one as a possible analog) as possible analog winters for this coming one but both had neutral to positive PDO indices and I don't think that's going to match up for this winter. Think we're going to see neutral to negative PDO values once again. Also leaning towards a west-based or Modoki Nino event. Could be wrong though as Ntxw has the goods on ENSO and it seems like recent trends suggest maybe a more basin-wide weak event?

A lot of folks are harping on 2009-10 being a solid analog and at this point I'd have to agree as it's a closer match to historical PDO values and a Modoki Nino.

There were cold winters that time. 1904 was one of the years that went La Nina to El Nino like 1911, 1976, and 2009. This past winter was a borderline La Nina. 1904-1905 had a strong El Nino in June 1905 based on Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Interesting to see El Nino peak in June as they tend to peak in winter, not summer. Of course that was not measured directly, so we really do not know. 1904-1905 and 1911-1912 are some of the coldest winters on record.

Top 20 Coldest Winter In America
1978-1979 26.61
1894-1895 26.65*
1935-1936 27.78
1898-1899 27.95
1909-1910 28.17
1904-1905 28.69
1928-1929 28.72
1977-1978 29.04
1916-1917 29.10
1917-1918 29.11
1911-1912 29.35
1903-1904 29.89
1976-1977 30.01
1902-1903 30.03
1948-1949 30.14
1936-1937 30.35
1914-1915 30.39
1963-1964 30.40
1983-1984 30.56
1919-1920/1984-1985 30.57

*December 1894 Data Missing

From Here
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

The winter of 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 1978-1979 were quite cold. 1978-1979 is the coldest winter in America going back to 1895. America has seen more than two back to back cold winters. 1902 to 1906 and 1976 to 1979. The 1900s and 1910s were quite cool. 1895, 1899, 1904, and 1915-1917 occurred in La Nina. 2009-2010 is the 22nd coldest winter on record.

The Atlantic was in a cool phase that time in the 1900s, 1910s, and late 1970s. 1905 was a very quiet season due to that strong El Nino.

[Ntxw]

February 1895, January/February 1951, and January and February 1985 were also La Nina. It shows that there are other factors like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). December 1983 and February 1989 occurred in a negative EPO.

Some cold winters have occurred in El Nino like 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2009-2010.

1903-1906 also had some very cold winters. 1904-1905 Nino may have been a super El Nino according to SOI records. It had values lower than even 1982 and 1997 and Texas experienced a string of years with cold winters and top 5 coolest summers in those years surrounding this Nino. DFW average temps were very low during this Nino not unlike 76-77, 77-78. The Atlantic was completely shut down during these several years.

Ntwx,
I have DJF 1904-5 as a weak Nino and 1905-6 as a moderate fwiw based on 3.4/JMA. Note that the extreme -SOI's didn't start til March of 05. The 04-5 winter was much colder than 05-06 (though Dec 05 was, itself, cold), which makes sense.

Thanks for the input Larry! I know data prior to 1950 is always objective when it comes to ENSO. For previous ENSO events I like to use the Kaplan extended SST reconstruction site. It actually shows a moderate to near strong Nino early 1905 that strengthened further even into the 2.0C+ range as shown below in June and July of that year and beyond! I know the JMA is weaker but given the extreme -SOI (top 3 and probably top in the 20th century) and very high MEI, I would give a fair consideration that perhaps this Nino may have been a very powerful one in 1905, quite possibly the apex of a multiyear nino!

Jan 1905







For DFW this is arguably the second coldest winter on record, 1904-1905.

[LarryWx]

Thanks for the input Larry! I know data prior to 1950 is always objective when it comes to ENSO. For previous ENSO events I like to use the Kaplan extended SST reconstruction site. It actually shows a moderate to near strong Nino early 1905 that strengthened further even into the 2.0C+ range as shown below in June and July of that year and beyond! I know the JMA is weaker but given the extreme -SOI (top 3 and probably top in the 20th century) and very high MEI, I would give a fair consideration that perhaps this Nino may have been a very powerful one in 1905, quite possibly the apex of a multiyear nino!

For DFW this is arguably the second coldest winter on record, 1904-1905.

Ntwx,
You're welcome. I was totally unaware of this reconstructed SST data until now! How accurate is it supposed to be?
The Jan. map does probably suggest a lower end moderate imo based on eyeballing. Keep in mind that there still looks to be as cool as only +0.50 on the northern end of western Nino 3.4 with the warmest being a small area just above +1.50 in a small area in the southern part of western 3.4. I could still see this map showing as cool as ~+1.10 averaged over 3.4. Regarding the Oct. map, I see a very tiny portion just over +2.25 and a not too large area over +2.00. With all due respect, the averaged 3.4 in this Oct. map imo isn't close to +2.0 for 3.4 since the +2+ portion looks like it covers a good bit less than 50% of 3.4 as a whole and the western part looks like it is averaging not far from only ~+1.0. I'm guessing that the overall average is probably closer to the +1.6 to +1.7 range in Oct. or lower end strong fwiw, but that's just from my eyeballing and just my guess.

[Ntxw]

It's a very fun tool to play around with. I haven't yet looked deeply into it's accuracy but it's one of the best tools that I can find for stuff before 1950 so hard to really compare it to much.

Here's the site and you can explore

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridd ... tml#detail

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow: It's a very fun tool to play around with. I haven't yet looked deeply into it's accuracy but it's one of the best tools that I can find for stuff before 1950 so hard to really compare it to much.

Here's the site and you can explore

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridd ... tml#detail

There is also Live Access Server (LAS). It uses NOAA ERSST v3. It got other cool stuff.

http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/geoideLAS/UI.vm

[Ptarmigan]

Thanks for the input Larry! I know data prior to 1950 is always objective when it comes to ENSO. For previous ENSO events I like to use the Kaplan extended SST reconstruction site. It actually shows a moderate to near strong Nino early 1905 that strengthened further even into the 2.0C+ range as shown below in June and July of that year and beyond! I know the JMA is weaker but given the extreme -SOI (top 3 and probably top in the 20th century) and very high MEI, I would give a fair consideration that perhaps this Nino may have been a very powerful one in 1905, quite possibly the apex of a multiyear nino!

Jan 1905

http://i58.tinypic.com/izu8ts.png

http://i60.tinypic.com/206fvgh.png

http://i58.tinypic.com/257og45.png

For DFW this is arguably the second coldest winter on record, 1904-1905.

What makes 1905 El Nino interesting is that the peak occurred in Northern Hemisphere Summer or Southern Hemisphere Winter. El Nino peaks around Northern Hemisphere Winter or Southern Hemisphere Summer. 1904 to 1906 was a multi-year El Nino. Multi-year El Nino is rarer than multi-year La Nina.

[texas1836]

If I remember just right, last year around this time there was discussion of the Polar Vortex and it’s possible collapse, filtering cold air our way. Well later, it seemed that was exactly what happened. Is there any sign of that happening again and, are there any websites I could go to, to monitior myself?

[BigB0882]

This article says that daily average temps from Jan 1 to Sep 22 are more than 1 degree F above averages since 1980 (New Orleans and Baton Rouge area). Is this possibly correct? We had one of the coldest winters I can ever remember with multiple sub freezing days and this summer has been practically cool with most days hitting around 90 instead of the upper 90s we usually see all summer. I can not, in any way, see this year as having been above average. Does anyone know more about this than I do? Or am I just getting used to this heat after 32 years? lol

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2 ... xperi.html

[Ntxw]

This article says that daily average temps from Jan 1 to Sep 22 are more than 1 degree F above averages since 1980 (New Orleans and Baton Rouge area). Is this possibly correct? We had one of the coldest winters I can ever remember with multiple sub freezing days and this summer has been practically cool with most days hitting around 90 instead of the upper 90s we usually see all summer. I can not, in any way, see this year as having been above average. Does anyone know more about this than I do? Or am I just getting used to this heat after 32 years? lol

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2 ... xperi.html

I don't know about New Orleans, but I checked the temperature departures for Baton Rouge this year. Every month except 2 (April, and Sept to date) were colder than normal. All other months were below to well below average so the math from that link is not correct according to official station data. Baton Rouge is experiencing a very unusually cool year using the 1981-2010 base.

[Ntxw]

Jamstec and JMA (latest) looks like a potent winter. The past several years we have lacked a true subtropical jet and on all fronts looks like its going to be a strong player this year. And well, the Alaskan region speaks for itself. I really do believe there is potential for late 1970s style winter may be on tap.

[Portastorm]

Jamstec and JMA (latest) looks like a potent winter. The past several years we have lacked a true subtropical jet and on all fronts looks like its going to be a strong player this year. And well, the Alaskan region speaks for itself. I really do believe there is potential for late 1970s style winter may be on tap.

I'm in complete agreement. I have seen nothing yet in my research for the PWC Winter Forecast which indicates a mild, dry winter. Nothing.

[South Texas Storms]

Jamstec and JMA (latest) looks like a potent winter. The past several years we have lacked a true subtropical jet and on all fronts looks like its going to be a strong player this year. And well, the Alaskan region speaks for itself. I really do believe there is potential for late 1970s style winter may be on tap.

I'm in complete agreement. I have seen nothing yet in my research for the PWC Winter Forecast which indicates a mild, dry winter. Nothing.

Yeah, I'm forecasting a colder and wetter than normal winter across Texas this year due to an active subtropical jet stream and likely El Nino conditions. We could see several winter storms if the cold air and storm systems time up well.

[TheProfessor]

A few days ago I was watching some amateurs forecast their winter predictions ( I know not to base anything on them) There was a correlation between all of them, which was that they only talked about the North Atlantic Oscillation and didn't mention one word about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the Alaskan warm pool. All of them forecasted the winter to be not so bad in the Central U.S, but wouldn't (I think it's -PDO and -NAO thats good for us cold lovers, not 100% though) a -PDO with a -NAO and the Alaskan warm pool push all the cold air down the central U.S. To me it seemed like they were kind of wish casting but idk.

[Cyclenall]

Jamstec and JMA (latest) looks like a potent winter. The past several years we have lacked a true subtropical jet and on all fronts looks like its going to be a strong player this year. And well, the Alaskan region speaks for itself. I really do believe there is potential for late 1970s style winter may be on tap.

As almost everyone knows, the late 70s was the most extreme period for winter weather in the 20th century near the Great Lakes. I saw the Jamstec, does the JMA show the Great Lakes being crushed too? Are the signals stronger for a late 1970s style winter than last year pretty much everywhere in the US/Southern Canada? If its lining up with great confidence, I'll be both terrified and excited for what's to come considering!

[Portastorm]

Jamstec and JMA (latest) looks like a potent winter. The past several years we have lacked a true subtropical jet and on all fronts looks like its going to be a strong player this year. And well, the Alaskan region speaks for itself. I really do believe there is potential for late 1970s style winter may be on tap.

Before I got wise and moved to Texas, I grew up in northeastern Ohio. Have vivid memories of those late 70s winters and experienced the most amazing (and scary) blizzards/winter weather in my lifetime. I didn't see (in terms of historical research) a lot of snowfall events in Austin in the late 70s but no doubt Texas must have experienced some extreme conditions during that period.

[Ntxw]

Im not certain in eastern Canada Cyclenall. That is one region of North America that is very gray. The dominant driver there is the NAO. Last year the NAO was mostly positive which allowed cold from western Canada to sit over the EC and the Lakes. A negative NAO will print a year like 2009/10 where it was cold everywhere else but not EC.

[Cyclenall]

Im not certain in eastern Canada Cyclenall. That is one region of North America that is very gray. The dominant driver there is the NAO. Last year the NAO was mostly positive which allowed cold from western Canada to sit over the EC and the Lakes. A negative NAO will print a year like 2009/10 where it was cold everywhere else but not EC.

Thanks for the response. I think you jogged my memory on the NAO being the main driver here.

[MGC]

This article says that daily average temps from Jan 1 to Sep 22 are more than 1 degree F above averages since 1980 (New Orleans and Baton Rouge area). Is this possibly correct? We had one of the coldest winters I can ever remember with multiple sub freezing days and this summer has been practically cool with most days hitting around 90 instead of the upper 90s we usually see all summer. I can not, in any way, see this year as having been above average. Does anyone know more about this than I do? Or am I just getting used to this heat after 32 years? lol

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2 ... xperi.html

Here is the media covering the global warming you know what. I just checked MSY climate. Every month of 2014 except june and August have had below nomal tempts. I suppect September might come in above normal. January had a negative 6.4 degree departure and March a negative 3.2. July had a negative .9 departure. I can't remember a July down here with so many "cold" fronts.

I'm expecting another cold winter for the area. That warm pool of water in the Pacific off Alaska is still there so I expect a strong NW flow out of Canada for much of the winter season. Just hope the sub-tropical jet gets a bit more active this winter. We had a pretty good sleet event in January 2014 but I'd like for my great-granddaughter to see a significant snow event. She just turned 4...MGC