Texas Winter 2014-2015
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
The Portastorm Weather Center has called a 12 noon (Central) press conference tomorrow, October 20th, to release it's official 2014-15 winter forecast.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I sense a warm winter is coming, it's just too easy. NOAA just nailed the coffin by calling it cold!
Just kidding.... patiently waiting for that forecast from PWC
Just kidding.... patiently waiting for that forecast from PWC
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Rgv20
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:The Portastorm Weather Center has called a 12 noon (Central) press conference tomorrow, October 20th, to release it's official 2014-15 winter forecast.
Hopefully you deliver good news for the Rio Grande Valley! If this winter turns out anything like last year I will be happy!
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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BREAKING NEWS: From the Gray Goose PWC offices in scenic southwest Austin, reports are coming in of large and almost uncontrollable crowds beginning to gather. They are heard to be chanting things like "We want snow and cold for Texas! We want snow and cold for Austin! We want snow and cold for Houston! And we want snow and cold for Dallas!" One crowd member indicated that anything less was totally unacceptable this winter. He said "I mean, the Dallas Cowboys are 6-1 and we can't get a little snow and ice down into central and SE Texas?!? Jerry has built another winner before we can get a little winter fun?!? Come on man!!!!" Meanwhile, a bicycle riding weatherman was seen lurking around the premises. Stay tuned, we'll have film at high noon, central time.
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How bout them Cowboys eh? Maybe shades of 93' Thanksgiving winter storm though we could without the infamous play. Lots of lobbying by the NTX branch delegation making a last ditch effort to sway those vodka filled mets in Austin to go big or go home!
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Re:
Texas Snowman wrote:BREAKING NEWS: From the Gray Goose PWC offices in scenic southwest Austin, reports are coming in of large and almost uncontrollable crowds beginning to gather. They are heard to be chanting things like "We want snow and cold for Texas! We want snow and cold for Austin! We want snow and cold for Houston! And we want snow and cold for Dallas!" One crowd member indicated that anything less was totally unacceptable this winter. He said "I mean, the Dallas Cowboys are 6-1 and we can't get a little snow and ice down into central and SE Texas?!? Jerry has built another winner before we can get a little winter fun?!? Come on man!!!!" Meanwhile, a bicycle riding weatherman was seen lurking around the premises. Stay tuned, we'll have film at high noon, central time.
Don't forget the chants from Rgv20 and me: "We want snow and cold for the Rio Grande Valley."
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Texas Snowman
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BREAKING NEWS: Latest info from unnamed sources within the GG/PWC headquarters in Austin indicate that last second work is going on to secure a good old fashioned winter for a number of spots across Texas. Not only for Big D, ATX and Houston but also for Beaumont/Port Arthur, San Antonio, El Paso, Waco, San Angelo, Del Rio, Laredo, Brownsville, Tyler/Longview, Texarkana, Denison/Sherman, Abilene, Midland/Odessa, Lubbock, Amarillo, Dalhart and Wichita Falls. Meanwhile, a shadowy figure continues to be been seen riding a bike and lurking around the GG/PWC perimeter. Details to follow...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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MORE BREAKING NEWS: Former Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Leon Lett has been seen entering the GG/PWC headquarters in Austin while eating a large turkey leg. Legendary QB Joe Montana - with a can of Notre Dame Cotton Bowl chicken soup, a digital thermometer and a faded Dallas Morning News "Sports Day" newspaper clipping dated Jan. 1, 1979 - was also seen entering the building as he muttered something about an ice storm. Earlier, a frosty fellow with a first name of Jack and an elderly gentlemen with snowy white hair, an icy disposition and a wind-shrieking voice were also seen inside the building through various frosted windows. And finally, a ghostly figure said to be from Memphis wearing a white rhinestone studded jumpsuit and carrying a microphone has reportedly LEFT the GG/PWC building. Ladies and gentlemen, what could it all mean?!? We'll find out soon enough from GG/PWC director and lead meteorologist Portastorm!!!
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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MORE BREAKING NEWS/BULLETIN: The Weather Channel's storm guru and primary chaser Jim Cantore is said to be en route to Austin. The plot thickens...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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EVEN MORE BREAKING NEWS: Just moments away from the release of Portastorm's 2014-15 winter forecast, security officers riding a fleet of Schwinn bicycles are said to be setting up roadblocks and barricades in the vicinity of the GG/PWC headquarters. Those security officers are being commanded by a fellow said to be from the Houston, Texas area.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Loud roars can be heard in the air chanting 'we want snow, we want snow!'
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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I must say, the scene is quite exciting. I haven't been this excited since last December's sleet storm!
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Tireman4
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Loud roars can be heard in the air chanting 'we want snow, we want snow!'
Ok, that is it. Lucille just screamed at me. Told me to "Take the crops, snow and the PWC with you. Let the mets figure it out" This is getting serious. Come on man!!
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
THE HOUNDS OF WINTER WILL BAYING LONG AND STRONG
PWC calling for nasty Texas winter for 2014-15 with many storms
Austin, TX – The Portastorm Weather Center (“PWC”) today revealed its 2014-15 winter forecast for the State of Texas. If the PWC is anything to close to accurate, winter will be a nasty one for the Lone Star State with below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the months of December 2014 through February 2015.
“We’re calling for one heckuva winter with a number of snow/ice threats for the state and a general overall aspect of cold and stormy,” said the lead meteorologist for the PWC. “All the teleconnections, analogs, and data to date tells us to expect an active Southern jet stream and frequent cold fronts of Canadian and Polar origins. This will combine to provide a number of wintry weather events in the state, especially in North Texas. We think those living north of an Abilene to Waco to College Station line are going to have quite a nasty winter season. Yes, the Hounds of Winter will bay long and strong this time.”
This is the first time in three winter seasons in which the PWC has issued a forecast with such certainty. Its abbreviated seasonal forecast for the 2012-13 winter was disastrous and the PWC refrained last winter from issuing any forecasts due to a “re-tooling of internal resources.” Despite occasional criticism from PWC clients and general weather enthusiasts, the PWC this time is more confident in its forecast and also credited the affiliate office of Storm 2K member “Ntxw” for partnering on the forecast.
As the press event was ending, one reporter asked the PWC spokesperson “Texas Snowman” a pointed and terse question: “It’s been 10 years since there was measurable snowfall in Austin and your track record ain’t so great. Are you saying this is the year it’s going to happen again?” The PWC spokesperson nodded his head and told the reporter “Yes, the PWC mets believe it will snow in Austin this winter season with more than trace amounts. But I wouldn’t buy that snowblower just yet.”
The PWC also released its reasoning on the winter forecast as follows:
The NE Pacific SST values remain well above normal, possibly even more so than last year at this time. The EPO is currently tanking and we think we’ll see a negative EPO/positive PNA reading for much of the winter. Consequently, we see a repeat of last winter in that strong ridging out west will help facilitate the dumping of cold, Arctic air into the nation’s midsection. Eurasian snow cover is rapidly advancing this month (the Cohen effect) and is at an even higher percentage than this time last year. That, along with predicted occasional Greenland blocking, should help a strongly negative AO and NAO to develop and be a frequent teleconnection couplet this winter. So what does that mean? We think it means that the cold air outbreaks in Texas this winter will not be nearly as transient as they were last winter. When the cold comes, it will last more than 24-36 hours. With a weak Modoki Nino looking more and more likely, we should see enough Southern stream energy to create “excitement” from time to time, let along some strong upper level lows which will create havoc in the midst of Arctic air. Remember that these events usually mean if you end up underneath the upper level low, your chances for ice/snow rise significantly. We also see synoptic situations like this occur where an upper level low traversing the state will shear out as it moves west to east and, consequently, you see a coastal low develop with the possibility of slinging moisture over a cold dome of air and creating a potential winter weather event for Central, East, and Southeast Texas.
The period of below-normal temperatures will not last as long as what we saw last winter. November and December will have some serious cold fronts but they will not put the state into a permanent deep freeze as temps will warm back to normal in intervals. Look for more variable conditions during these months but not without some dramatic, changeable conditions. However, as we get into January the duration and strength of the fronts along with increasing Southern jet activity will ramp up the storm threats. We do think North Texas is going to be in for a banner winter season with multiple snowfall potential. Snow/ice threats for places like Austin, San Antonio, Del Rio, and Houston will be less frequent than North Texas but they will exist as we believe upper level lows traversing the state will sporadically dip that far south as they move west to east. It’s not out of the question that even the Rio Grande Valley could see a frozen precipitation threat this winter at some point, more likely in early 2015.
We are in complete agreement with meteorologist Larry Cosgrove on our best guesses for analog years: 2009-10, 2002-03, and 1969-70. See maps below.
Analog Years -- Temperature
Analog Years -- Precipitation
PWC calling for nasty Texas winter for 2014-15 with many storms
Austin, TX – The Portastorm Weather Center (“PWC”) today revealed its 2014-15 winter forecast for the State of Texas. If the PWC is anything to close to accurate, winter will be a nasty one for the Lone Star State with below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the months of December 2014 through February 2015.
“We’re calling for one heckuva winter with a number of snow/ice threats for the state and a general overall aspect of cold and stormy,” said the lead meteorologist for the PWC. “All the teleconnections, analogs, and data to date tells us to expect an active Southern jet stream and frequent cold fronts of Canadian and Polar origins. This will combine to provide a number of wintry weather events in the state, especially in North Texas. We think those living north of an Abilene to Waco to College Station line are going to have quite a nasty winter season. Yes, the Hounds of Winter will bay long and strong this time.”
This is the first time in three winter seasons in which the PWC has issued a forecast with such certainty. Its abbreviated seasonal forecast for the 2012-13 winter was disastrous and the PWC refrained last winter from issuing any forecasts due to a “re-tooling of internal resources.” Despite occasional criticism from PWC clients and general weather enthusiasts, the PWC this time is more confident in its forecast and also credited the affiliate office of Storm 2K member “Ntxw” for partnering on the forecast.
As the press event was ending, one reporter asked the PWC spokesperson “Texas Snowman” a pointed and terse question: “It’s been 10 years since there was measurable snowfall in Austin and your track record ain’t so great. Are you saying this is the year it’s going to happen again?” The PWC spokesperson nodded his head and told the reporter “Yes, the PWC mets believe it will snow in Austin this winter season with more than trace amounts. But I wouldn’t buy that snowblower just yet.”
The PWC also released its reasoning on the winter forecast as follows:
The NE Pacific SST values remain well above normal, possibly even more so than last year at this time. The EPO is currently tanking and we think we’ll see a negative EPO/positive PNA reading for much of the winter. Consequently, we see a repeat of last winter in that strong ridging out west will help facilitate the dumping of cold, Arctic air into the nation’s midsection. Eurasian snow cover is rapidly advancing this month (the Cohen effect) and is at an even higher percentage than this time last year. That, along with predicted occasional Greenland blocking, should help a strongly negative AO and NAO to develop and be a frequent teleconnection couplet this winter. So what does that mean? We think it means that the cold air outbreaks in Texas this winter will not be nearly as transient as they were last winter. When the cold comes, it will last more than 24-36 hours. With a weak Modoki Nino looking more and more likely, we should see enough Southern stream energy to create “excitement” from time to time, let along some strong upper level lows which will create havoc in the midst of Arctic air. Remember that these events usually mean if you end up underneath the upper level low, your chances for ice/snow rise significantly. We also see synoptic situations like this occur where an upper level low traversing the state will shear out as it moves west to east and, consequently, you see a coastal low develop with the possibility of slinging moisture over a cold dome of air and creating a potential winter weather event for Central, East, and Southeast Texas.
The period of below-normal temperatures will not last as long as what we saw last winter. November and December will have some serious cold fronts but they will not put the state into a permanent deep freeze as temps will warm back to normal in intervals. Look for more variable conditions during these months but not without some dramatic, changeable conditions. However, as we get into January the duration and strength of the fronts along with increasing Southern jet activity will ramp up the storm threats. We do think North Texas is going to be in for a banner winter season with multiple snowfall potential. Snow/ice threats for places like Austin, San Antonio, Del Rio, and Houston will be less frequent than North Texas but they will exist as we believe upper level lows traversing the state will sporadically dip that far south as they move west to east. It’s not out of the question that even the Rio Grande Valley could see a frozen precipitation threat this winter at some point, more likely in early 2015.
We are in complete agreement with meteorologist Larry Cosgrove on our best guesses for analog years: 2009-10, 2002-03, and 1969-70. See maps below.
Analog Years -- Temperature
Analog Years -- Precipitation
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Good forecast and reasoning Porta! My winter forecast looks very similar to your analog years temperature and precipitation maps as well.
Here's hoping for a cool and especially wet winter for all of Texas this year!
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
BREAKING NEWS: GG/PWC lead forecaster Portastorm walks outside onto the balcony at the organization's southwest Austin headquarters, holds up a huge snowflake symbol and cries out to the boisterous crowd that has gathered:
"The winter of 2014-15 across Texas, folks it's going to be a DOOZY!"
Cries of joy erupt from scores of winter weather enthusiasts all over the Lone Star State!
Meanwhile, some muttering and grumbling is heard from a shadowy figure riding his bicycle in the general direction of Houston. He was heard to say: "We'll see about that."
Stay tuned folks!
"The winter of 2014-15 across Texas, folks it's going to be a DOOZY!"
Cries of joy erupt from scores of winter weather enthusiasts all over the Lone Star State!
Meanwhile, some muttering and grumbling is heard from a shadowy figure riding his bicycle in the general direction of Houston. He was heard to say: "We'll see about that."
Stay tuned folks!
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
I'll take 90's, as long as it rains a whole bunch.
Otherwise, if it gets that freaking cold, it BETTER snow!!!
Otherwise, if it gets that freaking cold, it BETTER snow!!!
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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