Texas Winter 2014-2015

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gpsnowman
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#101 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:28 pm

:uarrow: I have lived in the Dallas area most of my life and I can remember two instances where we had winter precip in November. First was Thanksgiving 1993 and the other was late month flurries in 2006. Of note is in late October of 1993 sleet fell in north Texas. I remember being outside with friends seeing sleet mixed in with rain. November to remember this year?????
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SaskatchewanScreamer

#102 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:16 am

Dear Grasshopper (and fellow locusts)

The Winter Outlook for Canada, that the mad Doctor put up, doesn't look as promising for the winter lovers in Texas! Soooooooooooooooo if you folks really want a hope of the white sh er stuff it is up to your folks to make our illustrious leader give me back the ability to posts videos!

Now lets see how good your powers of persuasion are!

SaskatchewanScreamer.
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#103 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:45 pm

Already sending minions up there SS. We will freeze Assiniboia no matter what forecast. Party like it's 1899.
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#104 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:43 am

I kinda like this one now :D :

Image

2002/3
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#105 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:48 am

News Bulletin

Portastorm Weather Center to release 2014-15 Winter Forecast on October 20

The Portastorm Weather Center, located in scenic southwest Travis County, released a statement today that it will issue its 2014-15 Winter Forecast on Monday, October 20, 2014. Once considered a stalwart of winter forecasts, the PWC has fallen on hard times as of late with warm/dry winters and cold/snowless winters occurring with greater frequency. Customer and general public discontent rumored with excessive alcohol abuse from its top talent in recent years has drawn even greater scrutiny to the PWC's lack of successful forecasting.

"We know the natives are restless," said the PWC Director on Sunday. "But we're working very hard on this forecast and have gone back to basics. Those Grey Goose parties are a thing of the past. It's all about the weather now. And early signs are telling us we in Texas are going to have quite a lot of weather to talk about between November 2014 and March 2015."
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#106 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:16 am

Portastorm wrote:News Bulletin

Portastorm Weather Center to release 2014-15 Winter Forecast on October 20

The Portastorm Weather Center, located in scenic southwest Travis County, released a statement today that it will issue its 2014-15 Winter Forecast on Monday, October 20, 2014. Once considered a stalwart of winter forecasts, the PWC has fallen on hard times as of late with warm/dry winters and cold/snowless winters occurring with greater frequency. Customer and general public discontent rumored with excessive alcohol abuse from its top talent in recent years has drawn even greater scrutiny to the PWC's lack of successful forecasting.

"We know the natives are restless," said the PWC Director on Sunday. "But we're working very hard on this forecast and have gone back to basics. Those Grey Goose parties are a thing of the past. It's all about the weather now. And early signs are telling us we in Texas are going to have quite a lot of weather to talk about between November 2014 and March 2015."



October 20? Geeze Louise....what is taking you folks so long? Just get the folks in there, serve Deli trays and get it out by October 1. We are waiting. My goodness. What are we paying for? LOL
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#107 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:25 pm

Portastorm wrote:News Bulletin

Portastorm Weather Center to release 2014-15 Winter Forecast on October 20

The Portastorm Weather Center, located in scenic southwest Travis County, released a statement today that it will issue its 2014-15 Winter Forecast on Monday, October 20, 2014. Once considered a stalwart of winter forecasts, the PWC has fallen on hard times as of late with warm/dry winters and cold/snowless winters occurring with greater frequency. Customer and general public discontent rumored with excessive alcohol abuse from its top talent in recent years has drawn even greater scrutiny to the PWC's lack of successful forecasting.

"We know the natives are restless," said the PWC Director on Sunday. "But we're working very hard on this forecast and have gone back to basics. Those Grey Goose parties are a thing of the past. It's all about the weather now. And early signs are telling us we in Texas are going to have quite a lot of weather to talk about between November 2014 and March 2015."

Grey Goose a thing of the past? This only enhances the winter outlook. The connection is there. Grey Goose-France. France-New Orleans. New Orleans-Shreveport. Shreveport-Caddo Lake. Caddo Lake-Parents. Parents-Gpsnowman. Gpsnowman-I-35. I35-Austin. Make it happen Portastorm, make it happen.
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#108 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:02 pm

Bastardi posted this publicly so I guess it's ok to post here. Pure fantasy, but I'm sure many of us would love to see something like a repeat of late October 1993.

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#109 Postby ronyan » Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:24 pm

That would be crazy to have snow on the ground in Dallas that early in November! What's the status of our old cold friend last year, the NE Pacific warm pool? Is it gone?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#110 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:32 pm

ronyan wrote:That would be crazy to have snow on the ground in Dallas that early in November! What's the status of our old cold friend last year, the NE Pacific warm pool? Is it gone?


It's even stronger now than it was at this point last year. Still the dominant blocking regime of the globe since.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#111 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:
ronyan wrote:That would be crazy to have snow on the ground in Dallas that early in November! What's the status of our old cold friend last year, the NE Pacific warm pool? Is it gone?


It's even stronger now than it was at this point last year. Still the dominant blocking regime of the globe since.


I believe in 1976 there was several inches of snow in portions of North Texas that fell relatively early that season in November. I moved here in 1979 but I remember several people in my area talking about snow in '76 that had occurred during the first round of the Texas high school football playoffs.
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#112 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:47 pm

Courtesy of the Fort Worth NWS page on North Texas snow events, here it is:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dsnows

"November 13-14, 1976: Widespread 4-6 inch snow fell over much of the northern and western sections of North Texas. The area covered was north of a line through Coleman, Hamilton, Fort Worth, Bonham, and Clarksville. Lampasas also reported 5 inches of snow with this event."
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#113 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:35 am

Ntxw wrote:
ronyan wrote:That would be crazy to have snow on the ground in Dallas that early in November! What's the status of our old cold friend last year, the NE Pacific warm pool? Is it gone?


It's even stronger now than it was at this point last year. Still the dominant blocking regime of the globe since.



Wow excellent, I'll be looking forward to what this winter has to throw at us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#114 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:56 pm

ronyan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
ronyan wrote:That would be crazy to have snow on the ground in Dallas that early in November! What's the status of our old cold friend last year, the NE Pacific warm pool? Is it gone?


It's even stronger now than it was at this point last year. Still the dominant blocking regime of the globe since.



Wow excellent, I'll be looking forward to what this winter has to throw at us.


Ditto here. Though that warm pool is there, the actual state of the atmosphere is quite different than 2013 which was more La Nina esque globally.
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#115 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:27 pm

La Nina-esque huh?

Rumor on the streets is that there is a drought around here.

And that it never rains, snows or gets cold in Texas! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#116 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:48 pm

Interesting, there does seem to be some correlation between a weak La Nina year and major cold snaps. Jan 1962, Dec 1983, Dec 1989, Jan 1996 and Feb 2011 all occurred with an ONI of -1 to 0. It's a small sample however.

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#117 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:00 pm

Well I hope we get a ton of snow this winter, but there is one weekend that I don't want it, which is January 23-25 that's when I'm heading down to San Antonio to meet some friends and go to the Penny Arcade Exposition. So it better stay dry that weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#118 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:47 pm

ronyan wrote:Interesting, there does seem to be some correlation between a weak La Nina year and major cold snaps. Jan 1962, Dec 1983, Dec 1989, Jan 1996 and Feb 2011 all occurred with an ONI of -1 to 0. It's a small sample however.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.jpg


1899 was another big one that is La Nina. Overall though La Nina winters are milder, and dry compared to El Nino for Texas. However, La Nina's feature very cold temperatures up in Alaska and Canada. If the pattern allows it and it alleviates from the typical La Nina-esque (jet being further north) during the Nina you can unlock some impressive cold air for one or two blasts. I have found that during these big singular blasts often if not most times the EPO experiences a severe negative episode that is not normal for La Nina which unleashes that air mass. 2011-2012 is an example where Alaska experienced a frigid winter but the EPO never went negative to unload it, dammed it up the entire winter. But overall the winters are warmer.

El Nino's tend not to have big arctic singular blasts like La Nina's. They are persistently colder from stormy weather. Weak El Nino's and west based one's can sometimes allow Canada to get cold enough for cold shots. If the Nino is very strong, Canada is flooded with warm air and we can have a wetter winter but lack of cold blasts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#119 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:
ronyan wrote:Interesting, there does seem to be some correlation between a weak La Nina year and major cold snaps. Jan 1962, Dec 1983, Dec 1989, Jan 1996 and Feb 2011 all occurred with an ONI of -1 to 0. It's a small sample however.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.jpg


1899 was another big one that is La Nina. Overall though La Nina winters are milder, and dry compared to El Nino for Texas. However, La Nina's feature very cold temperatures up in Alaska and Canada. If the pattern allows it and it alleviates from the typical La Nina-esque (jet being further north) during the Nina you can unlock some impressive cold air for one or two blasts. I have found that during these big singular blasts often if not most times the EPO experiences a severe negative episode that is not normal for La Nina which unleashes that air mass. 2011-2012 is an example where Alaska experienced a frigid winter but the EPO never went negative to unload it, dammed it up the entire winter. But overall the winters are warmer.

El Nino's tend not to have big arctic singular blasts like La Nina's. They are persistently colder from stormy weather. Weak El Nino's and west based one's can sometimes allow Canada to get cold enough for cold shots. If the Nino is very strong, Canada is flooded with warm air and we can have a wetter winter but lack of cold blasts.


February 1895, January/February 1951, and January and February 1985 were also La Nina. It shows that there are other factors like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). December 1983 and February 1989 occurred in a negative EPO.

Some cold winters have occurred in El Nino like 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2009-2010.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#120 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:20 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:February 1895, January/February 1951, and January and February 1985 were also La Nina. It shows that there are other factors like North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). December 1983 and February 1989 occurred in a negative EPO.

Some cold winters have occurred in El Nino like 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2009-2010.


1903-1906 also had some very cold winters. 1904-1905 Nino may have been a super El Nino according to SOI records. It had values lower than even 1982 and 1997 and Texas experienced a string of years with cold winters and top 5 coolest summers in those years surrounding this Nino. DFW average temps were very low during this Nino not unlike 76-77, 77-78. The Atlantic was completely shut down during these several years.
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