Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

Thanks Porta, as expected your thoughts on this winter match what the consensus seems to be on here. Looking forward to an exciting winter of forecasting.

[texas1836]

Thanks Porta, as expected your thoughts on this winter match what the consensus seems to be on here. Looking forward to an exciting winter of forecasting.

Yea, thanks Porta. Looks like it'll be busy on this forum during the Winter.

[Ntxw]

And so it begins...good vs. evil, cold vs warm, GFS vs Euro!

Good work Portastorm, and good luck with that forecast!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great forecast Porta! Cant wait for this winter. Gonig to be a doooozzzzy.

[TheProfessor]

Nice Forecast, and as the others have said, I am stoked for this winter!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just dont rely on the gfs. Guess we want it to show blazing heat and drought over the southern US then we will know its going to be a real cold and wintry mess.

[wxman57]

To Wxman 57..Yer gonna lose...nah nah nahh!!!! (LOL)

Don't poke the Bear. You don't want him to use his voodoo powers for evil(heat).

Yeah! I'm pulling for a very early freeze this year. Just one freeze, though.

[Texas Snowman]

Ahh, it's almost that time of the year again. Let the winter wars begin with our beloved Heat Miser!

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Ahh, it's almost that time of the year again. Let the winter wars begin with our beloved Heat Miser!

I'm worried that he may be relocating some of those West Texas wind turbines to plant them all along our state's northern border. He would just blow the cold, Arctic air back up north again by turning those "fans" on the high setting!

[Portastorm]

I would highly recommend that y'all go to JB's WeatherBell site and watch the video weather summary for Saturday, October 25th. He shares his thoughts on this coming winter. A lot of interesting stuff he packs into 11 minutes.

[gboudx]

Thanks for the video mention Porta. It was a good and interesting watch. I hope we start to see the pattern take shape soon. The leaves want to start turning colors but temps are cooperating lately.

[Portastorm]

And the hits keep on coming ... I see this morning from several weather sources that Eurasian snow cover for this time of year is now the second highest amount since they've been keeping records. It just surpassed 2009. Hmm ... both the winters of 76-77 and 09-10 were rather brutal weren't they?!

The predominant AO/NAO signals this winter will be negative. Lots of cold air to flood the CONUS. I can hear those hounds of winter howling already.

[Tireman4]

And the hits keep on coming ... I see this morning from several weather sources that Eurasian snow cover for this time of year is now the second highest amount since they've been keeping records. It just surpassed 2009. Hmm ... both the winters of 76-77 and 09-10 were rather brutal weren't they?!

The predominant AO/NAO signals this winter will be negative. Lots of cold air to flood the CONUS. I can hear those hounds of winter howling already.

I have ordered two ( count em)...propane heaters for Wxman 57's office. He is right down the street from me, so I will make sure to check in on him..LOL ( laughing out loud...he he)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Question for an expert.... JB posted a pic in comparison to 2007 of how fast the snowcover has advanced in Siberia compared to normal..... Woah. Could this early, rapid snowcover be the reason why we are in a warming trend right now? Could the large amount of cold snow packed air be messing with the jet stream which (for now) leads to a warm Oct for us? Im starting to think it has something to do with it. With massive cold pool over Siberia, and the way the dynamics play out right now, i think its causing the US to have almost an Omega block over the lower 48. Not seeing the huge drop in the EPO yet for some reason.

I expect this to change as winter approaches though. Or in mid November. It just seems like this rapid snowpack development is messing with the upper level air over us somehow, just not sure how to connect the dots. Thanks guys. Im a heavy thinker so i have racked my brain on this one.

[aggiecutter]

Updated Winter Forecast(Public-Free) from JB and Weatherbell Analytics:

[Ntxw]

Question for an expert.... JB posted a pic in comparison to 2007 of how fast the snowcover has advanced in Siberia compared to normal..... Woah. Could this early, rapid snowcover be the reason why we are in a warming trend right now? Could the large amount of cold snow packed air be messing with the jet stream which (for now) leads to a warm Oct for us? Im starting to think it has something to do with it. With massive cold pool over Siberia, and the way the dynamics play out right now, i think its causing the US to have almost an Omega block over the lower 48. Not seeing the huge drop in the EPO yet for some reason.

I expect this to change as winter approaches though. Or in mid November. It just seems like this rapid snowpack development is messing with the upper level air over us somehow, just not sure how to connect the dots. Thanks guys. Im a heavy thinker so i have racked my brain on this one.

This is a very complex question. Dr. Judah Cohen's paper of the SAI (snow advance index) sets the notion that quick growth of snow cover across Eurasia (in October not the other months) has high correlation with ensuing winter -AO. The snow strengthens the Siberian high pressure (freezer of the Northern Hemisphere) which provides a heat flux into the stratosphere. And when you warm the stratosphere suddenly it is known as sudden stratospheric warming or SSW event. This promotes -AO which dislodges low heights, big storms, and cold air to the mid latitudes. Except though when you're building snow in Eurasia you're usually milder on the other side in NA (seesaw). The stratosphere vortex is setting up shop now and with the snow advance we're going to beat it down next month. I'm very confident of the -AO coming this winter, possibly one of the strongest years.

The low level cold air isn't there yet like it was last year as the EPO has been swaying back and forth and really not a player at this time as you've mentioned. When it gets cold this year it will not be the same overall as last year with big high pressure domes. We'll get cold from deep low pressure systems drawing cold air behind them and cutoff lows bringing their cold air from low heights. More akin to 2009-2010 type cold than 2013-2014.

[TheProfessor]

which, was still cold, I remember around New Year 2009-10 it got cold enough for a long enough period to freeze ponds all the way down into Arlington.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thanks Ntwx! As you said in your post, the building of snow in Eurasia is leading to warm weather here. So excited for this winter!

[Ralph's Weather]

The teleconnections look to be set up for the cold to build up north after this weekend for a few weeks. I expect winter to come crashing in sometime after mid-Nov. When it does it will get cold quick I expect.

[texas1836]

The teleconnections look to be set up for the cold to build up north after this weekend for a few weeks. I expect winter to come crashing in sometime after mid-Nov. When it does it will get cold quick I expect.

I saw that this morning. I hope it holds up, it could be interesting.