Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Re:

#8381 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:12 am

Brent wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Big storm signal showing up about a week away. Not sure if it is winter storm implications for anywhere in Texas yet, but at the very least significant rainfall potential as colder air works it's way back into the picture. This is from the 4-5 deviation from normal system that will sit over the baja this week and when it comes out will slug a lot of moisture from the roaring subtropical jet.


Ntxw, whether or not there's any chance of one last gasp of winter anywhere in Texas during the late March period, it does look like some beneficial rains could be forthcoming.

Here's what Larry Cosgrove posted earlier tonight on his Facebook page:

"I am becoming concerned that Texas will be smacked with a very heavy rain and thunder event, as most of the numerical models show a high QPF and strong forcing set-up as the low redevelops out into the south central U.S."


When is the timeframe on this?

Just watching the GFS meteograms and it seems to be trending warmer for the rest of the month... I even see a couple 80+ degree days, the 0z even has a day approaching 90 out in fantasy land lol :(


I have not been following the model runs much so not sure what they have been showing, but looking at what is going on in the Pacific and the modeled teles late next week should be chilly and wet.
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#8382 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:25 am

Cosgrove says the period March 20-25 will be when this storm comes across and winter makes its final assault in some parts of the nation.
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#8383 Postby gboudx » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:15 am

Why is Larry "concerned" about this rainfall event? I know SETX has had lots of rain lately, but West TX and NCTX could use lots more. Is he suggesting the focus will be on SETX? If WTX and NCTX are "smacked" it would be a good thing.
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Re:

#8384 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:19 am

gboudx wrote:Why is Larry "concerned" about this rainfall event? I know SETX has had lots of rain lately, but West TX and NCTX could use lots more. Is he suggesting the focus will be on SETX? If WTX and NCTX are "smacked" it would be a good thing.


Soil is fully saturated even in North Texas. Models have been bad with qpf as it has been persistently lower than actual amounts. Drainage may not be able to keep and cause flooding and soil issues. But overall if it does happen definitely good for the lakes.
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Re: Re:

#8385 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:23 am

Ntxw wrote:
gboudx wrote:Why is Larry "concerned" about this rainfall event? I know SETX has had lots of rain lately, but West TX and NCTX could use lots more. Is he suggesting the focus will be on SETX? If WTX and NCTX are "smacked" it would be a good thing.


Soil is fully saturated even in North Texas. Models have been bad with qpf as it has been persistently lower than actual amounts. Drainage may not be able to keep and cause flooding and soil issues. But overall if it does happen definitely good for the lakes.


And the Summer. It will alot.
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#8386 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:01 pm

Good rains today here in Grayson County, about .40 so far. Ground is totally saturated, water standing everywhere. The sleet and snow from late last month and earlier this month sure did help get the ground moistened up.
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#8387 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:03 pm

FWIW, we've actually had 1.99 inches already this month. Much of that was from sleet and snow earlier in the month. Hoping to really add to that total next week with some more generous rainfall.
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#8388 Postby Ntxw » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:37 pm

Give it time, it's still only March 13th the target period will be after the 20th or a good week away for changes then it will be 20-25th before we see any significant impacts if there is to be.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8389 Postby Brent » Sun Mar 15, 2015 1:44 am

Good thing the long-range GFS is never right! :lol:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8390 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:04 am

Brent, I am not familiar with this model, what is it saying????
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#8391 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:13 am

:uarrow: Looks like there is a deep trough with cold air plunging south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8392 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:13 pm

Looking at the long range forecast and everything happening in nature, I feel we have seen our last freeze and spring is here to stay.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8393 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:39 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Looking at the long range forecast and everything happening in nature, I feel we have seen our last freeze and spring is here to stay.


Could be, the last two years we've had solid cold fronts in April that gave us freezes here along the Red River Valley. We're certainly approaching the average date of the last freeze here in Denison/Sherman (March 22nd). If there aren't any more winter temperatures, we certainly went out with a bang at the end of February and the beginning of this month! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8394 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Mar 16, 2015 12:15 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Looking at the long range forecast and everything happening in nature, I feel we have seen our last freeze and spring is here to stay.


Could be, the last two years we've had solid cold fronts in April that gave us freezes here along the Red River Valley. We're certainly approaching the average date of the last freeze here in Denison/Sherman (March 22nd). If there aren't any more winter temperatures, we certainly went out with a bang at the end of February and the beginning of this month! :D

Yes! We certainly did! As much as I would like to see a little bit more cold or cooler weather, I really need to get all of my planting done.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8395 Postby TexasStorm » Mon Mar 16, 2015 4:28 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Looking at the long range forecast and everything happening in nature, I feel we have seen our last freeze and spring is here to stay.


No freezes and looks to be pretty dry after this week. GFS long range not showing any precipitation again until around the 28th of March for North Texas. South Texas and the coast look to get some precipitation from a Baja low around the 22nd of March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8396 Postby Brent » Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:21 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Looking at the long range forecast and everything happening in nature, I feel we have seen our last freeze and spring is here to stay.


I'm cautiously agreeing with this at the moment.
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#8397 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:20 pm

I need ONE more cold snap to burn up the last of my firewood supply. Just one more. A night or two would work! :D
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#8398 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:20 pm

:uarrow: Then I'll start dreaming of NEXT winter, the winter that Portastorm finally gets his snow! :D
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#8399 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:25 pm

Interesting post from Larry Cosgrove earlier this evening on Facebook:

6) Yes, the alarm bells for severe weather/heavy rainfall in my brain are ringing for the Interstate 10 corridor this weekend (mostly heavy thunderstorms, but TX and LA could see some rough conditions). More importantly, I concur with some of the ensemble packages that point toward a more impressive Panhandle Hooker B type storm around March 30 - April 2. It is that time of the year....
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#8400 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:35 pm

:uarrow: I'm pretty confident I will see a foot of snow on the ground next winter, but that's because it looks like I'm going to be going to college in Ohio this fall.
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