Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17324
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#41 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 11, 2014 6:47 pm

Early thoughts, I watched his video (JB). I don't know if we can match last winter in terms of cold, that was pretty prolific as a whole for the continent, but in terms of snow and storms there's a good chance we could see more impact systems than last year. The Pacific Ocean is very warm and the recent +PDO readings shows a very wet eastern Pacific.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1264
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#42 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:04 am

:uarrow: Ntxw, I always appreciate the thought you put into your posts. :)

I'm going to be honest here. Frankly, I didn't find JB's video all that informative. I understand that it's basically a news story for the WSJ, but I was hoping for more of a nuts and bolts explanation from his point of view. Instead we heard about El Nino and saw a big map with outrageous amounts of snow in nice lines.

I know *why* he thinks it'll be just as bad or a bit worse this year (we've been watching the signs since March, for crying out loud), I don't disagree with him on that point. It just wasn't at all what I had expected. You'd think that a normal person watching this would say "Oooookay, but *why* the extra snow??", but I suppose they don't. Maybe all most people want is a four minute blurb about the winter. *shrug*
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9424
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#43 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:01 am

:uarrow:

Most people aren't the weather weenies we are! :wink:

JB has been honking for a while now about a Modoki Niño for this winter. If you follow him on Twitter you will occasionally see some "nuts and bolts" behind the hyperbole. Anyhow, speaking very generally, Modoki Ninos tend to be great winters in the Southern Plains and Texas for cold/snow lovers.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5174
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#44 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Aug 12, 2014 2:18 pm

:uarrow: Hopefully it's a great winter for our fearless leader, Portastorm, and others in central and southern Texas who need a highly memorable visit from Old Man Winter! :D
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9424
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#45 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:31 am

TheProfessor wrote:Off Topic: well I hope this guy is wrong because you guys in Austin definitely deserve snow, take a look at the bottom of the page. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.p ... groupid=74
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2768
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Roaming Texan

#46 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Aug 15, 2014 2:50 pm

I have a feeling this is going to be a great winter for cold and snow lovers for much of Texas, the fact that we have had multiple cold fronts already pushing past North Texas this summer seems impressive.
0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

You local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17324
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#47 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 16, 2014 12:04 pm

Jamstec seasonal forecasts are out and it too is pretty good for winter lovers. Will post maps later this evening. Plenty of convincing evidence for a good to memorable winter this year with better chances for cold and snow. Thinking a late 70s worthy winter may be in the cards.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2171
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re:

#48 Postby orangeblood » Sun Aug 17, 2014 4:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:Jamstec seasonal forecasts are out and it too is pretty good for winter lovers. Will post maps later this evening. Plenty of convincing evidence for a good to memorable winter this year with better chances for cold and snow. Thinking a late 70s worthy winter may be in the cards.


Yep, looking very promising for this winter with the Jet stream setting up shop much further south across the southern states, along with plenty of cold air to tap into across southern Canada. The entire eastern Pacific looks extremely warm towards the end of this year - reminiscent of the epic winter of 1977-78
0 likes   

texas1836
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Age: 49
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:10 am
Location: McKinney, TX.

#49 Postby texas1836 » Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:38 am

I keep hearing about it, but not seeing to much on this forum. Will or can the lack of sunspot activity have an added effect on our Winters?
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9424
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re:

#50 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:22 pm

texas1836 wrote:I keep hearing about it, but not seeing to much on this forum. Will or can the lack of sunspot activity have an added effect on our Winters?


Well, this group of scientists seems to believe the answer is "yes."

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=1073
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17324
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#51 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:21 pm

The NE Pacific warm pool is still alive and thriving. What an incredible run!

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5134
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#52 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:The NE Pacific warm pool is still alive and thriving. What an incredible run!

Image


I have looked at UAF GEOIDE LAS, which is at http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/geoideLAS/

The Northeast Pacific Warm pool is the warmest I have see going back to 1870.
0 likes   

texas1836
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Age: 49
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:10 am
Location: McKinney, TX.

#53 Postby texas1836 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:20 am

:uarrow: Will this cause major blocking over Greenland? What does this mean?
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9424
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re:

#54 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:21 am

texas1836 wrote::uarrow: Will this cause major blocking over Greenland? What does this mean?


No, the anomalously warm NE Pacific waters will not cause major blocking over Greenland ... at least directly. But do you remember what happened to Texas weather last winter with the frequent cold airmasses coming down out of Canada and the Arctic? These waters help create an environment in the atmosphere where strong high pressure ridges form west of us along the western Pacific coast. Think of an upside-down "U" over the West Coast. The effect is shunting the cold airmasses south into the central and eastern parts of the CONUS at certain times.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

texas1836
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Age: 49
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2012 10:10 am
Location: McKinney, TX.

#55 Postby texas1836 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:42 am

I gotcha and I do remember last year. I thought that someone, somewhere, had mentioned possible blocking in the East as well, something to do with warm waters around Greenland. I'm trying to understand all this, so sorry if these questions seem a bit naive. There's a lot to learn with so many scenarios, so I’m trying to broaden my understanding. Oh, and thanks for the feedback. :)
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9424
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re:

#56 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:46 am

texas1836 wrote:I gotcha and I do remember last year. I thought that someone, somewhere, had mentioned possible blocking in the East as well, something to do with warm waters around Greenland. I'm trying to understand all this, so sorry if these questions seem a bit naive. There's a lot to learn with so many scenarios, so I’m trying to broaden my understanding. Oh, and thanks for the feedback. :)


We're all learning constantly. Don't ever hesitate to ask anything around here. :wink:

And yes, I do recall someone several weeks ago posting about the possibility of a "Greenland block" this winter. Can't recall who it was but it was a few pages back on this thread, I believe. Should something like that occur and then we'd really have a cold winter to talk about! That would essentially create a persistent very deep trough over the nation's mid section and kind of lock us in to cold weather much of the winter season.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5134
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re:

#57 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:11 pm

texas1836 wrote:I gotcha and I do remember last year. I thought that someone, somewhere, had mentioned possible blocking in the East as well, something to do with warm waters around Greenland. I'm trying to understand all this, so sorry if these questions seem a bit naive. There's a lot to learn with so many scenarios, so I’m trying to broaden my understanding. Oh, and thanks for the feedback. :)


The Northeast Pacific region affects East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). Negative EPO creates ridging over Alaska, allowing cold air to go down south.
0 likes   

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1264
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

#58 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:26 pm

The persistence of these features is fascinating, especially the warm water in the Northeast Pacific. That's been constant for *months* now. I notice that the waters near Nova Scotia are particularly warm as well, with that warmth extending to Greenland. In other words, not much change from the last time I rattled on about this, what, about a month ago? I'm a fan of cold wx, so the signs continue to look favourable. I've seen nothing to change my mind, and September is almost here.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9424
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re:

#59 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:45 pm

Janie2006 wrote:The persistence of these features is fascinating, especially the warm water in the Northeast Pacific. That's been constant for *months* now. I notice that the waters near Nova Scotia are particularly warm as well, with that warmth extending to Greenland. In other words, not much change from the last time I rattled on about this, what, about a month ago? I'm a fan of cold wx, so the signs continue to look favourable. I've seen nothing to change my mind, and September is almost here.


I believe you were the person who mentioned the potential Greenland block this coming winter. No doubt that some time in the next month, some of us will be researching analog winters which saw a negative EPO combined with a weak Nino. Throw in an occasional negative NAO and/or AO due to that Greenland block and it could get *real* interesting.

At the same time it always seems like there are things we miss this time of year when we start to speculate on the winter forecast. I know that we end up saying "oh man, why didn't I see that back in the fall?!" So, it'll be interesting like always. I look forward to everyone's comments and analyses.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1264
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

#60 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:23 pm

You know, people in Buffalo would kill me if I told them I wanted a 1977-78 winter! :lol:

The long-range prognostication is for the "drought o' death" (cousin of the infamous TX Death Ridge) to continue for California, so that's another piece of the puzzle for TX and points east....otherwise you'd often get Pacific track storms (which bring relatively warm Pacific air in and maintain a zonal flow across the South) through California. If I'm not mistaken, most of the rain SoCal gets falls during the winter. Well, if you've got consistent ridging that blocks the storm pattern and forces things *around* it, that's entirely consistent with those warm waters and higher heights we keep seeing.

Meanwhile, I can dream. I've got a 594 DM high building above me. Wxman must have phoned it in. :P
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests