Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Ntxw
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Re:

#81 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:32 pm

TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: Thats a Satirical website, like the onion, look at the comments below, or the fake meteorologist and their fake titles. Don't base anything on the map on that website. But maybe you guys knew that and were playing along :wink: .


I know, good wishcasting but hey it may just happen!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#82 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:34 pm

With the way things are setting up over the Pacific, I only see two years that really stick out. 1976 and 1977 as analogs thus far when trying to match SST's. Some pre 1950 years but data back then isn't reliable. 2009 is next best fit. Should have a better feel in October looking at atmospheric responses.
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#83 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:45 pm

1977. *shudder* :cold:

That's one of the coldest winters the young Janie ever experienced, so naturally I thought *every* winter was like that. Sadly, I was mistaken.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#84 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:45 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Screamer needs to be careful about those football comments ... Aggie fans and Baylor Bear fans would vehemently disagree with her assessment, and rightfully so. Maybe so would Texan fans. But we all know to whom she was referring. :wink:



Was she talking about the University of Texas ( that is a rebuilding project for Charlie Strong. I am thinking three years, but will the UT folks give him that?) or the Dallas Cowboys? Well, one game does not make a season. Lastly, I do wonder about this Winter. Will it be a strong one?


I'm talking about EVERY TEAM in your NFL! Looooooong boring games played on itsy bitsy teeny tiny fields (they have to have tons of timeouts to recover from running down it :roll: ) with 4 downs that slow the game down even more. :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#85 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:With the way things are setting up over the Pacific, I only see two years that really stick out. 1976 and 1977 as analogs thus far when trying to match SST's. Some pre 1950 years but data back then isn't reliable. 2009 is next best fit. Should have a better feel in October looking at atmospheric responses.


Right. Here's a NWS webpage that really highlights what you're speaking of in terms of analogue years, especially 1976-77:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/climo/summa ... ld1977.php

Good ol' NWS-Wimington, responsible for Cincinnati and the home of one of my favourite unis, Miami University in Oxford.

What led to this extreme period of cold temperatures? A very amplified pattern, meaning troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure at all levels of the atmosphere were far stronger than normal for the time period. The Ohio Valley, unfortunately resided underneath an extremely strong and deep trough of low pressure, what was in fact a very displaced Polar Vortex, which is a feature common in most winters over higher latitudes in Canada. Below is a chart of the average deviation from normal of the 500mb surface through this period. Hues of purple indicate that these 500mb heights were significantly lower than normal, in some cases over 200 meters below normal. These values are extremely significant and rare when considering a 30-day average. This overall weather pattern is the ideal setup for outbreaks of frigid air in the eastern United States. A west coast ridge of high pressure (yellow hues) and extreme blocking (very strong ridge of high pressure in red hues) just off the east coast of the United States near Greenland.


Notice that we have a *similar* pattern setting up here. I say similar because it isn't exactly the same. In the winter of 1976-77 we had blocking over the NE Pacific and Greenland, but the blocking was far stronger over and just west of Greenland during that period of time. Whilst it remains too early to say that the current pattern will remain as it is, I'm in agreement that this is a good analogue and something to watch as time passes.
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#86 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:39 pm

Image

My oh my just the thought of that white stuff does cause mass hysteria down there!

:grrr:
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#87 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 10, 2014 11:30 am

Pfft to Miss SS. Calgary waaay up north isn't much better! What is this, Atlanta 2.0?

This week in Calgary, Alberta

Image
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#88 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:43 pm

:uarrow: :D If that's Alberta, then our Canadian friends might want to take a refresher course in driving in snow and ice!
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Re:

#89 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:33 pm

Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: :D If that's Alberta, then our Canadian friends might want to take a refresher course in driving in snow and ice!


No kidding, what a bunch of amateurs! :P
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Re:

#90 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:41 pm

Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: :D If that's Alberta, then our Canadian friends might want to take a refresher course in driving in snow and ice!



Congratulations you just found some of your kin that moved to Calgary! :D
Census says Alberta inherited from the United States 28,320 Americans (~20,000 live in Calgary...all Texans I'm sure :lol: )
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Re: Re:

#91 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:44 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: :D If that's Alberta, then our Canadian friends might want to take a refresher course in driving in snow and ice!


No kidding, what a bunch of amateurs! :P


:slime:



Oh this winter is going to be so much fun!!! :grrr:

p.s. there are also lots of pics of people driving, yes DRIVING, on their highways covered with snow/water/ice!

Those would be the Canadians (most likely from Saskatchewan :wink: )!
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#92 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:13 pm

We were/aren't any different....let it snow a few inches in Birmingham or Manchester and you'd think the zombie apocalypse had happened. :lol:
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#93 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:08 am

Jb posted the JMA that goes out to December and it is saying everything most of us has been saying. Powerful Alaskan ridge, very low heights across the southern US and some -NAO. Frankly, could be a harsh winter.
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#94 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:15 am

:uarrow: I've noticed even the "seasoned drivers up North" usually slide off the roads en masse during the first snow of the season. The reason this happens is because they haven't yet installed the snow tires that let them survive the rest of the winter. The tires are better up north, not the drivers. ;)
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Re:

#95 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Sep 11, 2014 2:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:Jb posted the JMA that goes out to December and it is saying everything most of us has been saying. Powerful Alaskan ridge, very low heights across the southern US and some -NAO. Frankly, could be a harsh winter.


More and more - and with every reference to 1976/1977 - that's the feeling I get. At the moment, it appears that most systems are go for a very memorable winter in Texas. Maybe even Portastorm will get some love from the cold and snow machine.

And when Wxman57 is all but conceding that fact in September, well...either a winter to remember is forthcoming. Or a complete bust!
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Re: Re:

#96 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:43 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Jb posted the JMA that goes out to December and it is saying everything most of us has been saying. Powerful Alaskan ridge, very low heights across the southern US and some -NAO. Frankly, could be a harsh winter.


More and more - and with every reference to 1976/1977 - that's the feeling I get. At the moment, it appears that most systems are go for a very memorable winter in Texas. Maybe even Portastorm will get some love from the cold and snow machine.

And when Wxman57 is all but conceding that fact in September, well...either a winter to remember is forthcoming. Or a complete bust!


Besides a couple of nice, crippling winter weather events for the Austin area, I'd like to see the Texas Winter 2014-2015 thread top 600 pages! We did 500 this past winter. Why not 600?! :cheesy:
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#97 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:31 pm

:uarrow: Only 600? :x If we have a winter even close to 2009-2010 but this time for a lot more of the state I'm expecting at least 700. :D Can't wait!!
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#98 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 9:10 pm

Well, I'm on this forum, so that's a guaranteed boost of 25 pages at least. :eek:

It is somewhat gratifying, I admit, to see JB come onboard with what we're thinking as well, although (1) it is completely possible that we bust everything and (2) those peeps have been saying much of the same thing for awhile now as well. My feeling is that it's going to be rather harsh. With Wxman conceding summer, it's the icing on the cake. All we have to do now is make certain we don't bust it. :lol:
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#99 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:28 am

We are more than happy to have you post here with us Janie! I want to see the page count beaten from last year as well! We had a lot of ice/cold and threats throughout the state but not a lot of snow. If we could get a decent snowstorm for each of the big metros we can easily get 600 at least.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#100 Postby orangeblood » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:30 am

Ntxw wrote:With the way things are setting up over the Pacific, I only see two years that really stick out. 1976 and 1977 as analogs thus far when trying to match SST's. Some pre 1950 years but data back then isn't reliable. 2009 is next best fit. Should have a better feel in October looking at atmospheric responses.


If it's anything close to 76-77, this thread will easily reach 600 pages...that winter started off out of the gates quickly, with a big North Texas snow storm in the middle of November 1976
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