Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Ntxw
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#8281 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:48 am

Check out this observation out of DFW last night (it wasn't showing up during the event, for whatever reason they didn't put out data)

04 23:53 N 21 G 35 0.00 Snow and Breezy (0.00) is visibility

From about 11pm and continued to 1pm.

The almost blizzard non-blizzard by criteria.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8282 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:26 am

Porta, watch some Charlie Brown! It helps. Lucy gets punched good in Snoopy Come Home!!! :ggreen: :cheesy: :lol: #AustinSnowLessnessTherapy
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#8283 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:41 am

Someone, I think WacoWx, asked about flying out of DFW today the other day. I don't think it's going to happen with 600-700+ flights canceled.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8284 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:42 am

My side walk is still icy! 33 degrees @LHWC!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8285 Postby Tammie » Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:55 am

So has Spring officially sprung after yesterday's storm, or are there other surprises in store in the next 10 days?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8286 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:02 pm

As much as I hate another bust, I think EWX ultimately did the right thing by issuing the WSW, and I was pleased to see that the school districts were proactive with their shutterings.

We were a degree or two away from a pretty considerable event here, and I think it's entirely unrealistic to expect a forecast office to be able to pinpoint an event this dynamic with that resolution. In this case, I'd much rather places err on the side of caution with protecting people.

As has been said by others, I don't envy those folks; they've been made to look like fools repeatedly this winter (and last winter, too, a couple of times), but we all know how nuanced these forecast packages are. They've tried over and over again to tightrope the forecast, understandably, and have somehow been burned every time.

For their sake, can't we just have a clear-cut winter event just once?
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#8287 Postby orangeblood » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:Someone, I think WacoWx, asked about flying out of DFW today the other day. I don't think it's going to happen with 600-700+ flights canceled.


Yep, DFW is a mess...currently stuck in Colorado waiting on a flight. Hated to miss the blizzard of 2015 but had almost 4 feet over the past week up here, got my snow fix in!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8288 Postby Portastorm » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:05 pm

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:As much as I hate another bust, I think EWX ultimately did the right thing by issuing the WSW, and I was pleased to see that the school districts were proactive with their shutterings.

We were a degree or two away from a pretty considerable event here, and I think it's entirely unrealistic to expect a forecast office to be able to pinpoint an event this dynamic with that resolution. In this case, I'd much rather places err on the side of caution with protecting people.

As has been said by others, I don't envy those folks; they've been made to look like fools repeatedly this winter (and last winter, too, a couple of times), but we all know how nuanced these forecast packages are. They've tried over and over again to tightrope the forecast, understandably, and have somehow been burned every time.

For their sake, can't we just have a clear-cut winter event just once?


I'm in complete agreement with you. If they hadn't pulled the trigger on a WS Warning and the event occurred, everyone would be screaming today for their heads on a pike. We all saw the tools they have access to ... outside of the NAM, everything showed a significant winter storm to occur. We should never lose our awe of nature and this just reminds those of us in Austin that the weather can be unpredictable.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8289 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:07 pm

Portastorm wrote:I'm in complete agreement with you. If they hadn't pulled the trigger on a WS Warning and the event occurred, everyone would be screaming today for their heads on a pike. We all saw the tools they have access to ... outside of the NAM, everything showed a significant winter storm to occur. We should never lose our awe of nature and this just reminds those of us in Austin that the weather can be unpredictable.


It's very predictable, just call for freezing drizzle :wink: Just kidding. It's kind of becoming a staple that during every event it is automatic frz drizzle in Austin... Man I was pulling for you guys to get something, it was probably the last chance that way for the winter. Good news GFS is showing lots of rain in the long range with the blossoming El Nino. We continue to hammer down the drought. The holdouts in NW and NTX have been eating away at it since January.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8290 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:23 pm

12Z GFS looks much more reasonable for next week. Reasonable meaning no Arctic front next Friday and well above-normal temps for Texas. I'm sure it's correct now.

Image

Here is a comparison to the 6Z run valid for the same time. Just goes to show that you can't trust those "off-hour" runs. ;-)

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8291 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS looks much more reasonable for next week. Reasonable meaning no Arctic front next Friday and well above-normal temps for Texas. I'm sure it's correct now.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_37.png

Here is a comparison to the 6Z run valid for the same time. Just goes to show that you can't trust those "off-hour" runs. ;-)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_38.png


We'll give it to you till the 20th. Then we take over again for the Vernal Equinox to Easter.

So the RGEM has performed well the past several events. Apparently it is the Regional (mesoscale) version of the Canadian! Essentially it is like the NAM is to the GFS, interesting. I'll be curious how it performs with rainstorms qpf wise as the NAM frequently outperforms the GFS with qpf during those big rain events.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8292 Postby Shoshana » Thu Mar 05, 2015 1:10 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Longhornmaniac8 wrote:As much as I hate another bust, I think EWX ultimately did the right thing by issuing the WSW, and I was pleased to see that the school districts were proactive with their shutterings.

We were a degree or two away from a pretty considerable event here, and I think it's entirely unrealistic to expect a forecast office to be able to pinpoint an event this dynamic with that resolution. In this case, I'd much rather places err on the side of caution with protecting people.

As has been said by others, I don't envy those folks; they've been made to look like fools repeatedly this winter (and last winter, too, a couple of times), but we all know how nuanced these forecast packages are. They've tried over and over again to tightrope the forecast, understandably, and have somehow been burned every time.

For their sake, can't we just have a clear-cut winter event just once?


I'm in complete agreement with you. If they hadn't pulled the trigger on a WS Warning and the event occurred, everyone would be screaming today for their heads on a pike. We all saw the tools they have access to ... outside of the NAM, everything showed a significant winter storm to occur. We should never lose our awe of nature and this just reminds those of us in Austin that the weather can be unpredictable.



Yup. We wound up with pouring rain, thunder and 33f. It could have been really bad.
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#8293 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Mar 05, 2015 1:33 pm

Question:

Since there are Pros here and other in 'official' capacities, can't something be done to keep trucks off the roads that same way airports and other facilities are closed? There are all kinds of reports today of Interstates blocked by a large number of trucks bogged down in snow which is hampering snow removal efforts. This happens in every storm all over the country. Since they're 'regulated' by DOT as far as driver rules and hours among other things, can't they be ordered off the roads once a Winter Storm Warning is issued?

I know they can't do anything about passenger cars in most cases unless they close the roads completely, buts it's far easier to move a passenger car or SUV out of the way than a loaded semi.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8294 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:11 pm

The melting is so fast :( lol
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#8295 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:27 pm

March sun and clear blue skies doing the melting, spots in the shadows holding strong but exposed snow is melting good.
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#8296 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:41 pm

Yea, hard to believe last night was a winter wonderland in many places and today it's just muddy and wet with a few places in the shade still snowy. Its sad that winter is pretty much over even though it feels like it just started with the good last couple of weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8297 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:58 pm

Texarkana received 1" of sleet, with 2" of snow on top of that. That makes 3 significant winter weather events in the past 10 days, not bad for late February-early March. Props to JB for nailing the pattern. And, the Austin Omega Block still rules. Speaking of JB, "Enjoy the weather. It's the only weather you've got"(Joe Bastardi).
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Re:

#8298 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:28 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Yea, hard to believe last night was a winter wonderland in many places and today it's just muddy and wet with a few places in the shade still snowy. Its sad that winter is pretty much over even though it feels like it just started with the good last couple of weeks.


The difference is so stark. You couldn't even see the end of my street at the peak last night
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8299 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:39 pm

Snow is melting very fast in Texas. Quite a difference from this morning. Look at all the snow in eastern Arkansas:

From 10:15am CDT:
Image

From 2:15pm CDT
Image
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#8300 Postby gboudx » Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:53 pm

Amazing how quickly it's melting. Good riddance.
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