Texas Winter 2014-2015

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#8301 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:57 pm

Hopefully it clears up pretty nice for a solid march freeze!!!
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Re:

#8302 Postby TexasStorm » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:March sun and clear blue skies doing the melting, spots in the shadows holding strong but exposed snow is melting good.


Good thing about the rain we had before the snow. The melting snow is now creating decent runoff which should help out the area lakes.
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Re: Re:

#8303 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:17 pm

TexasStorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:March sun and clear blue skies doing the melting, spots in the shadows holding strong but exposed snow is melting good.


Good thing about the rain we had before the snow. The melting snow is now creating decent runoff which should help out the area lakes.


Yeah I noticed a lot of ponding yesterday in the rain. The good thing about this cold pattern we have been in was that it was very wet to coincide which isn't common.

MJO is going very strong into the Pacific phases. During this warming trend the next few days to a week I suspect they haven't grasped at the full scope of this event going on in the Pacific. Very strong Pacific/subtropical jet is going to bring in a lot of moisture than the models probably have not grabbed onto yet. I strongly believe our drought situation is going end soon and by this summer we may even be looking at excess. The lakes hopefully will respond later this spring.

Image

DFW is 2.21" of rain above normal for the year. March doesn't have to go above normal or even normal. Just another inch on top of what we already have will be well taken to keep things near normal.
Last edited by Ntxw on Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#8304 Postby gboudx » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:20 pm

:uarrow: In the past month, Lavon is up over 2' and Ray Hubbard almost 2'. Encouraging to see the levels rising instead of falling.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8305 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:28 pm

Euro ensemble run members 15 and 23 for Portastorm. A half a foot to foot of snow later this month in Austin. We believe it, it must be true it just has to be.

#TexasFight
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8306 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro ensemble run members 15 and 23 for Portastorm. A half a foot to foot of snow later this month in Austin. We believe it, it must be true it just has to be.

#TexasFight


I'll take that bet!

Both the EC & GFS have dropped next Friday's Arctic front in favor of considerably above-normal temperatures from western Canada to Texas the weekend of the 14th-15th. I'm sure that these two long-range forecasts are now perfect...
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8307 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro ensemble run members 15 and 23 for Portastorm. A half a foot to foot of snow later this month in Austin. We believe it, it must be true it just has to be.

#TexasFight


I'll take that bet!

Both the EC & GFS have dropped next Friday's Arctic front in favor of considerably above-normal temperatures from western Canada to Texas the weekend of the 14th-15th. I'm sure that these two long-range forecasts are now perfect...


Grasping at straws for Portastorm. It's not something I'd bet on, but believe! Pfft you can't trust something that's flopping back and forth 180 one day to the next! All I know the -EPO refuses to go positive :wink:
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Re: Re:

#8308 Postby dhweather » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TexasStorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:March sun and clear blue skies doing the melting, spots in the shadows holding strong but exposed snow is melting good.


Good thing about the rain we had before the snow. The melting snow is now creating decent runoff which should help out the area lakes.


Yeah I noticed a lot of ponding yesterday in the rain. The good thing about this cold pattern we have been in was that it was very wet to coincide which isn't common.

MJO is going very strong into the Pacific phases. During this warming trend the next few days to a week I suspect they haven't grasped at the full scope of this event going on in the Pacific. Very strong Pacific/subtropical jet is going to bring in a lot of moisture than the models probably have not grabbed onto yet. I strongly believe our drought situation is going end soon and by this summer we may even be looking at excess. The lakes hopefully will respond later this spring.


DFW is 2.21" of rain above normal for the year. March doesn't have to go above normal or even normal. Just another inch on top of what we already have will be well taken to keep things near normal.



I sure hope you are right on this.

Reading notes from a meeting the City of Heath had with the water district. They are building a pipeline to lake Palestine, $1 BILLION, 10 years to build it.

Water wars.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8309 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:50 pm

I think that Portastorm has finally given up on an Austin snow event for this winter. Maybe next winter...

I'm thinking we're looking at below-normal temps across Texas at least through April. Certainly not seeing anything to suggest that any locations will record above-normal temps for either month. Maybe by May Texas cities will average closer to normal for monthly temps.

With the cool Gulf water and relatively few (and short) periods of deep onshore flow in recent weeks (months), the severe weather season may be limited.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8310 Postby dhweather » Thu Mar 05, 2015 4:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think that Portastorm has finally given up on an Austin snow event for this winter. Maybe next winter...

I'm thinking we're looking at below-normal temps across Texas at least through April. Certainly not seeing anything to suggest that any locations will record above-normal temps for either month. Maybe by May Texas cities will average closer to normal for monthly temps.

With the cool Gulf water and relatively few (and short) periods of deep onshore flow in recent weeks (months), the severe weather season may be limited.


I'm fully expecting it to be as dead as last year - where FWD only issued NINE tornado warnings all year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8311 Postby Portastorm » Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think that Portastorm has finally given up on an Austin snow event for this winter. Maybe next winter...

I'm thinking we're looking at below-normal temps across Texas at least through April. Certainly not seeing anything to suggest that any locations will record above-normal temps for either month. Maybe by May Texas cities will average closer to normal for monthly temps.

With the cool Gulf water and relatively few (and short) periods of deep onshore flow in recent weeks (months), the severe weather season may be limited.


Boy, you're just full of good news aren't you?! :roll:

Yes, I have given up for this winter. No point in beating my head bloody against a wall. I'm honestly ready for spring, warmer temperatures, and hopefully some rains whether they come from squall lines or upper level El Nino lows.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8312 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:27 pm

QPF once we hit 32 through the snowfall... quite high.

Image

Oh and I recorded about an inch and a half of liquid from the Friday snow leading up to hitting 32 yesterday... quite a wet pattern.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8313 Postby Ntxw » Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm thinking we're looking at below-normal temps across Texas at least through April. Certainly not seeing anything to suggest that any locations will record above-normal temps for either month. Maybe by May Texas cities will average closer to normal for monthly temps.


Euro ENS and 18z GFS la la land 500mb flow wants to scorch Alaska with a ridge. Send anything they've got left, any cold existing down. Where there is cold we will scour it! If the EPO wants it cold, it will get cold!
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#8314 Postby DonWrk » Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:02 pm

Anyone realize how cold it got in Oklahoma last night? Lots of single digits and a few -1's!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8315 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:14 pm

LOL

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8316 Postby utweather » Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:27 am

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:As much as I hate another bust, I think EWX ultimately did the right thing by issuing the WSW, and I was pleased to see that the school districts were proactive with their shutterings.

We were a degree or two away from a pretty considerable event here, and I think it's entirely unrealistic to expect a forecast office to be able to pinpoint an event this dynamic with that resolution. In this case, I'd much rather places err on the side of caution with protecting people.

As has been said by others, I don't envy those folks; they've been made to look like fools repeatedly this winter (and last winter, too, a couple of times), but we all know how nuanced these forecast packages are. They've tried over and over again to tightrope the forecast, understandably, and have somehow been burned every time.

For their sake, can't we just have a clear-cut winter event just once?


Epic fail on the school closings. Wait til morning or at the very least ice accumulation the night before. Good grief! Someone from the dfw give these guys some advice. This is either 2 years in a row or twice in the last 3 jumping the gun. Growing up in Dallas you had to wait til morning. Here the odds are even much much higher of nothing frozen. I woke up to sunshine and dry ground this morning. It was very nice day to do some yard work and stuff around the house, nice little chill but felt good. But no school, lol

Edit: I believe they cancelled the schools down before 6pm, yes that is correct 6pm. When it was cloudy and temps in the 40's maybe if that
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8317 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:53 am

I don't see anything wintery coming anytime soon so I will see all of yall in the Spring thread! It's been a strange but fun winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8318 Postby dhweather » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:34 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:I don't see anything wintery coming anytime soon so I will see all of yall in the Spring thread! It's been a strange but fun winter.


No kidding!

November - MAJOR Arctic blast.
December - yawn
January - yawn
February - yawn first 20 days
Feb21 - now - crazy, 5 separate wintry precip events in two weeks.

But is has been raining, I am delighted about that, lakes are getting a little water in them. Hopefully NTXW is right and this is "make up" year and we get them back to capacity.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8319 Postby wxman57 » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:35 am

It's over! It's finally over! Winter is over! :12: :onfire:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8320 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:46 am

dhweather wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:I don't see anything wintery coming anytime soon so I will see all of yall in the Spring thread! It's been a strange but fun winter.


No kidding!

November - MAJOR Arctic blast.
December - yawn
January - yawn
February - yawn first 20 days
Feb21 - now - crazy, 5 separate wintry precip events in two weeks.

But is has been raining, I am delighted about that, lakes are getting a little water in them. Hopefully NTXW is right and this is "make up" year and we get them back to capacity.

Man I sure hope so. Our combined lake levels are like 20%. It's terrible here. I've had to drill a well to be able to even keep my lawn and trees alive.
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