Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Re: Re:

#8361 Postby TexasStorm » Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:14 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:The noticeable absence of Wxman57 declaring winter over is all you need to know. :D


I'm in the Spring Weather thread. Winter is over... That's not to say Texas won't see any further cold fronts (not until mid to late May). But the chances of any more snow for areas outside of the panhandle are gone. No more freezes for SE TX, too.

4/7/2007 is my latest snow so I will hold out hope at least until around then especially with some indications of the pattern flipping back to cold after mid month.


The models last week showed temps much below normal for North Texas this coming weekend. Forecast for Saturday is 69 degrees I believe.

We will continue to get cold fronts, artic fronts, not so sure.
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Re: Re:

#8362 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:I love snow, but my favorite time of year is severe weather season.


SPC has issued something like 4 total tornado watches this year and most are in the southeast. That is unbelievably low, not going to be a good severe weather season this year again like the past 2, mid March approaching and no outbreaks in the foreseeable future.


This is not going to help:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8363 Postby Portastorm » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:55 pm

Yeah ... as long as the Gulf is closed for business ... severe weather in the Southern Plains will be at a minimum.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8364 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:14 pm

Portastorm wrote:Yeah ... as long as the Gulf is closed for business ... severe weather in the Southern Plains will be at a minimum.


Yeah severe weather setup is complete opposite of that map posted. +PDO SST's is too strong to support -PNA jet and SE ridge to pump up the gulf. Pattern is more akin to the quiet 1980s with the raging PDO

Good thing we have a parked baja low to eject storms for rain in absence.
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#8365 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:51 pm

Anyone notice the nosedive coming by the AO? Of course it will happen now just for vegetation with the -EPO...
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Re:

#8366 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Anyone notice the nosedive coming by the AO? Of course it will happen now just for vegetation with the -EPO...


Where was this in January? :lol:

I mean I'm happy with the end of February/start of March but it just makes you wonder...
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#8367 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:07 pm

FWIW, Joe Bastardi tweeted today that the warm-up this week across much of the nation is a false spring in his opinion. He thinks that that there is quite possibly one more two to three week long attack of winter left (I know, I know, probably centered north and east of here).

But then Larry Cosgrove said a little more than a half-hour ago on his Facebook page that if you live east of the Rocky Mountains, in his opinion, the period of March 20 to 25 will be a "very special one."
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#8368 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:16 pm

Check out the MJO guys. Doesn't matter if you are a believer or not you have to give it a glance to understand the magnitude of it that is going on. This is a top 3% if not 1% p7 strength

Image

Convection bomb over the tropical Pacific will equate to significant results downstream
Image

Couple of things to look for

-Westerly Wind burst will induce -EPO/ridging over NW North America.
-AO/NAO couplet aiming negative
-Copious Pacific Moisture (pineapple express) will make it's way towards the southwest and Texas. You can see the hose aimed thousands of miles away
-Recycle pattern we have seen, cold early month then shifting to New England and retrograding
-Possible Pacific Typhoon formation
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8369 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:09 pm

I'm enjoying the warmer weather to get things done around the yard and get the garden tilled but I would love another cool down before the blow torch is turned on.
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#8370 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:09 pm

Like the looks of that fire hose aimed in our direction! Maybe we can keep working on filling up the lakes in the state. And maybe with a little luck, somebody in Texas or Oklahoma could get a late season winter weather surprise.

I looked at lake levels across Texas today and a lot of East Texas lakes are 100% full. A number of North Texas lakes are 60 to 80 percent full. But the central, southern and western parts of the state are hurting bad and remain EXTREMELY low.

A big storm with copious precip and plenty of cold runoff would help.
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#8371 Postby Ntxw » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:46 am

Big storm signal showing up about a week away. Not sure if it is winter storm implications for anywhere in Texas yet, but at the very least significant rainfall potential as colder air works it's way back into the picture. This is from the 4-5 deviation from normal system that will sit over the baja this week and when it comes out will slug a lot of moisture from the roaring subtropical jet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8372 Postby TexasF6 » Wed Mar 11, 2015 5:04 pm

Forecast BUST today! 75 degrees? Where??????? :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8373 Postby Portastorm » Wed Mar 11, 2015 5:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Yeah ... as long as the Gulf is closed for business ... severe weather in the Southern Plains will be at a minimum.


Yeah severe weather setup is complete opposite of that map posted. +PDO SST's is too strong to support -PNA jet and SE ridge to pump up the gulf. Pattern is more akin to the quiet 1980s with the raging PDO

Good thing we have a parked baja low to eject storms for rain in absence.


I saw today that the February PDO value was the highest ever recorded. Records have been kept since 1900 per the University of Washington.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8374 Postby orangeblood » Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:08 am

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Yeah ... as long as the Gulf is closed for business ... severe weather in the Southern Plains will be at a minimum.


Yeah severe weather setup is complete opposite of that map posted. +PDO SST's is too strong to support -PNA jet and SE ridge to pump up the gulf. Pattern is more akin to the quiet 1980s with the raging PDO

Good thing we have a parked baja low to eject storms for rain in absence.


I saw today that the February PDO value was the highest ever recorded. Records have been kept since 1900 per the University of Washington.


You sure about that Porta ? I looked at those values the other day and the PDO record value was set in Dec. 2014 and has slowly declined since....but still at very high levels
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8375 Postby lukem » Thu Mar 12, 2015 2:20 pm

I think he meant a record +PDO for February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8376 Postby Portastorm » Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:18 pm

Sorry ... Yes I should have written for the month of February.
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Re:

#8377 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:Big storm signal showing up about a week away. Not sure if it is winter storm implications for anywhere in Texas yet, but at the very least significant rainfall potential as colder air works it's way back into the picture. This is from the 4-5 deviation from normal system that will sit over the baja this week and when it comes out will slug a lot of moisture from the roaring subtropical jet.


Ntxw, whether or not there's any chance of one last gasp of winter anywhere in Texas during the late March period, it does look like some beneficial rains could be forthcoming.

Here's what Larry Cosgrove posted earlier tonight on his Facebook page:

"I am becoming concerned that Texas will be smacked with a very heavy rain and thunder event, as most of the numerical models show a high QPF and strong forcing set-up as the low redevelops out into the south central U.S."
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#8378 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:38 pm

:uarrow: And while most of the really cold air and potential winter weather threat may be north and east of us, I am hopeful that we can get some late month chilly temperatures and significant runoff into Texas lakes and reservoirs.

I've still got just a smidgeon of firewood to burn. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#8379 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:40 pm

Portastorm wrote:Sorry ... Yes I should have written for the month of February.


After the kind of winter you've had to endure - again - and the verbal jabs you've taken from the Heat Miser, no apology is necessary Portastorm! :wink:
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Re: Re:

#8380 Postby Brent » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:57 am

Texas Snowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Big storm signal showing up about a week away. Not sure if it is winter storm implications for anywhere in Texas yet, but at the very least significant rainfall potential as colder air works it's way back into the picture. This is from the 4-5 deviation from normal system that will sit over the baja this week and when it comes out will slug a lot of moisture from the roaring subtropical jet.


Ntxw, whether or not there's any chance of one last gasp of winter anywhere in Texas during the late March period, it does look like some beneficial rains could be forthcoming.

Here's what Larry Cosgrove posted earlier tonight on his Facebook page:

"I am becoming concerned that Texas will be smacked with a very heavy rain and thunder event, as most of the numerical models show a high QPF and strong forcing set-up as the low redevelops out into the south central U.S."


When is the timeframe on this?

Just watching the GFS meteograms and it seems to be trending warmer for the rest of the month... I even see a couple 80+ degree days, the 0z even has a day approaching 90 out in fantasy land lol :(
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